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Odaily reports: On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says long-term holders hold roughly 4 million BTC with a cost basis between $85,000 and $118,000, most of which was purchased in 2025. At Bitcoin's current price, these holdings are worth approximately $326 billion, and holders are currently facing losses.Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses holding coins for more than 155 days, and notes that the $84,000–$85,000 range has pushed Bitcoin back four times this year; since January, Bitcoin has closed above that range on only 5 days. Glassnode says that if prices recover to the relevant cost basis range, some holders may choose to sell to break even.U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have an average cost basis of about $81,500–$82,000. Glassnode says ETF holders' average unrealized loss as of Monday was about $2.63 billion; the estimate only tracks fund flows and does not include the purchase costs of secondary-market buyers. (Decrypt)
Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility has dropped to approximately 25%, falling back to summer 2023 levels; since August, the realized losses triggered by each round of decline have continued to narrow, suggesting that selling pressure has eased somewhat. Glassnode believes that Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound state characterized by weak demand and limited selling pressure, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28. If the daily close reclaims the $85,000 level, it could serve as an initial signal for a further rebound; if it breaks below the active investors' average cost of approximately $77,900, attention should be paid to short-term holder cost support near $75,800.Market data shows that Bitcoin has fallen back below the $84,000–$85,000 range, which has capped price gains four times this year. Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled notably, with net inflows of only about $67 million over the past two weeks; major buy-order support on Binance's spot order book has also shifted down to the $78,000–$79,000 range, amounting to approximately $42 million.
According to Glassnode, recent BTC buyers have exited the strong distribution zone. In late September, nearly all short-term holder supply was in profit, but this proportion has now dropped to approximately 70%. For buyers expecting the upward trend to continue, the current entry timing is significantly better than it was a month ago.
According to QCP Capital market analysis reports, BTC fell below $80,000 over the weekend and is currently trading at the lower boundary of its recent range. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and ETF fund outflows later last week triggered leveraged long liquidations. QCP noted that the key variables this week are the FOMC meeting on Oct. 27-28 and earnings reports from major tech companies: Microsoft and Alphabet will report on Oct. 28, while Amazon will report on Oct. 29. Last week, Meta dropped 7% after raising its capital expenditure guidance, and the Nasdaq posted its worst single-day performance since June. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October and an approximately 84% probability in December. There will be no dot plot released with this meeting, and the market will focus on Fed Chair Walsh's press conference. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.96%. On the technical side, BTC support sits at $78,000, with resistance at $86,000 and further levels between $88,000 and $90,000. Glassnode data indicates that the cost basis for ETF holders and corporate treasuries ranges from $80,000 to $81,500. ETH support is at $2,150, with resistance at $2,500. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to approximately 0.029, and ETH ETFs recorded net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, totaling $220.7 million. Q
Glassnode posted on X that seller capitulation appeared once again during yesterday's BTC decline. Each previous wave of loss-driven selling occurred at local bottoms, in early August, mid-August, and mid-September respectively. Since the September high, profit-taking has slowed. If this pattern holds, yesterday's sell-off just above $80,000 would mark a local bottom.
Odaily News: Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi stated that the "bunker mode" proposed by Ethereum researcher Justin Drake to address the risk of AI cracking cryptographic signatures amounts to "cryptographic doomerism," and argued that migrating tokens to new addresses is not a real solution.Qureshi said that "bunker mode" can only protect assets that users have not yet transferred out of new addresses. If tokens in other addresses are attacked and heavily sold off, those assets could still lose value. He suggested that blockchain networks adopt a "Cryptographic Recovery Mode," using hash-based backup signature schemes that allow users to bind recovery mechanisms in advance, so that validators can assist in recovering assets after cryptographic signatures are cracked.Previously, Ethereum researcher Justin Drake warned that with the rapid improvement of AI mathematical capabilities, the ECDSA signature algorithm protecting crypto wallets could face the risk of being cracked within "months rather than years," and advised users to gradually migrate funds to new wallets that have not exposed public keys. Glassnode data shows that approximately 6.26 million BTC are currently held in addresses with potential risk. (Cointelegraph)
According to Rafael (@n3ocortex), co-founder of the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, public keys for approximately 6.26M BTC (31.2% of total supply) are now publicly visible on-chain, marking a further rise from 24.8% in early 2021 and returning to 2016 levels. Specifically, address reuse has led to the exposure of public keys for 4.33M BTC, with an additional 1.71M BTC exposed due to P2PK script types (including 1.10M BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto), and 222K BTC exposed via Taproot addresses. At the institutional level, exchanges collectively hold 1.79M BTC with visible public keys, with exposure rates varying significantly across platforms: 10% for Coinbase, 83% for Binance, and 100% for Bitfinex; 49% for Grayscale, 99% for Revolut, and 100% for Robinhood. Fidelity accounts for just 2%, while the exposure rate for holdings by the US, UK, and Salvadoran governments remains at 0%.
Glassnode 监测显示，当前以高位价格买入比特币（BTC）的投资者正在进行抛售。目前有两类群体处于账面亏损状态：一类是 1 至 2 年前以 9.7 万美元买入的持有者，另一类是 6 至 12 个月前以 8.9 万美元买入的持有者。
Glassnode 山寨币周期信号创出新高，显示山寨币市场资金流入强劲；与此同时，比特币市值占比停滞于 60% 下方，未能突破关键阻力位。
According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode (@glassnode), Bitcoin’s price fell to approximately $76,000, breaking below the consolidation range maintained since late August and dropping roughly 1% below the “Realized Price” of $76,700. Despite multiple headwinds including the failure of the Senate’s CLARITY Act vote, sharp declines in altcoins, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, the pullback has remained moderate. On-chain capital inflows turned negative for the first time on September 15 following 27 consecutive days of growth; U.S. spot ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of approximately $334 million from September 8 to 14; the total stablecoin market cap stands at roughly $301 billion, down about 4% from its April peak with recent growth stalling; and publicly traded companies have net-purchased only about 5,900 BTC over the past three months, far below the 89,000 BTC bought in July 2025, with an average corporate cost basis of approximately $80,500 leaving them currently underwater. The options market shifted to bearish sentiment within hours of the voting results being announced. Max pain for the September 25 expirations sits at $72,000, with heavy call option concentration capping upside near $85,000. The order book shows thin bid liquidity below $68,000; should this range break decisively, subsequent key support levels would be the short-term holder cost basis at $71,300 and the on-chain support zone between $62,000 and $65,000.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has faced persistent pressure near the $83,000 key resistance level, failing to surpass its earlier May high before retracing below $80,000. Data from Glassnode reveals that wallet cohorts have collectively entered a net distribution phase for the first time since early June, with whale wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC displaying the clearest selling trend. Previously, Bitcoin rallied from around $64,000 to $79,000 in mid-August. Currently, Bitcoin is also encountering resistance near the 50-week moving average, but if the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average to form a "golden cross," it may provide some support to bulls.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has rebounded approximately 26% from its mid-August low, driven primarily by record short liquidations. August 19 marked the largest single-day short liquidation day monitored since 2019, with shorts accounting for 85% of total liquidations within the squeeze window. Over the same period, coin-denominated BTC futures open interest fell by 11%, while perpetual contract funding rates remained largely neutral, indicating that the rally was not accompanied by significant new leveraged long positioning. On the capital flow front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $2.23 billion during this window, with no single-day net outflows, marking the strongest consecutive seven-day inflow streak of the year. The 30-day accumulation trend scores for wallets across all size categories remained above 0.5, reflecting broad-based buying coverage throughout the market. However, Glassnode notes that the $81,000–$86,000 zone concentrates the cost basis of long-term holders, sell orders, options market maker negative gamma positioning, and potential short liquidation bands, forming the primary resistance to the current rebound. The report suggests that if BTC holds above $83,300 alongside sustained ETF inflows, it may signal that this supply zone is being absorbed. Downside focus should then shift to the $70,000 short-term holder cost basis, followed by the $62,000–$65,000 support range.
Glassnode pointed out in its latest market report that although Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after retreating from the $65,000 zone last week, it remains clearly range-bound overall. Spot trading volume and on-chain transaction throughput continue to shrink, with market liquidity and participation willingness at low levels. The derivatives market also shows caution, with leverage expanding moderately, but aggressive taker activity in perpetual contracts continues to lean toward the sell side, reflecting more aggressive distribution behavior. Funding rates remain positive, indicating lingering long-side inclination, while the options market continues to price downside protection at a premium above actual volatility levels.Institutional demand has simultaneously weakened, with declining spot ETF volumes compounded by net outflows. Institutional positions are near their cost basis, limiting unrealized profit potential for regulated investors and causing a temporary pause in accumulation momentum. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of supply in loss and realized losses consistently exceeding profit-taking.The report also noted that the broader pace of capital outflows has begun to slow, which could be an early signal that selling pressure is stabilizing. The overall market remains caught between short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, deteriorating institutional flows, and elevated loss realization collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation pattern, while the slowing outflow pace suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced state before its next directional move.
Odaily News, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is currently trading between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,700. Spot trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell to 2.5% in July and stock markets hit new highs, yet Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction or has even weakened, indicating a clear absence of demand. Selling pressure is subsiding, with profitable supply approaching levels seen at previous bear market bottoms. The seller exhaustion indicator has hit cycle lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.Meanwhile, buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, with negligible net inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed toward longs ahead of time, open interest remains relatively high compared to trading volume, and order book bid depth is thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels to watch at approximately $68,700 to the upside and $58,500 to the downside. Only a decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volumes and ETF inflows, would confirm market improvement. If the latter is lost, an accelerated decline is likely given thin buying support and crowded long positioning. Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and no genuine demand signal has yet emerged.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
According to Glassnode data reported by Odaily, the $63,000 level is emerging as a key support and battleground zone for Bitcoin (BTC) in the current market. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has continued to trade within the $60,000 to $67,000 range, with over 3% of BTC's circulating supply—approximately 515,000 BTC—having a cost basis concentrated near $63,000. Additionally, more than 362,000 BTC is concentrated in the $61,000 area. Glassnode notes that only the $78,000 to $82,000 range currently has a higher supply density than this zone, corresponding to Bitcoin's May cyclical peak.Furthermore, Bitcoin's current price nearly coincides with the 200-week moving average. Glassnode data shows that the 200-week MA currently stands at approximately $63,657, while BTC's price is around $63,822, indicating significant historical accumulation and strong cost support in this area.Looking at the 30-day cumulative Accumulation Trend Score, all types of investors are currently in a net accumulation state, with retail buying momentum being the most pronounced. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC continue to increase their positions, suggesting that long-term capital is still positioning itself. The $63,000 level has become a critical price band in Bitcoin's short-term market structure, and investor accumulation behavior may provide important reference for future price movements. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Bitcoin was priced at approximately $63,020 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day and 50% lower than the record high of $126,080 set in October. Bitcoin failed to hold above $65,000 on Wednesday, dropping to an intraday low of $62,640, breaking through the $64,500 Put Wall associated with this week's option expiry. Glassnode数据显示，over 65% of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges comes from long-term holders selling at a loss. The firm noted that this reading aligns with early bear market phases, during which this group dominated the sell-side until selling pressure gradually exhausted. Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at Hashkey, stated that the global equity pullback and accelerated deleveraging of semiconductor and AI-related assets have dampened market risk appetite and reduced institutional exposure to Bitcoin. He pointed out that the derivatives market does not show crowded leverage, with selling pressure concentrated in the spot market. After a net outflow of $425 million on Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday. Related funds have attracted cumulative inflows of approximately $51 billion since their launch in 2024. (Decrypt)
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.