News linked to both this project and an event.
Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader and renowned chart analyst, has released his latest technical analysis. He points out that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures is forming a diamond pattern, indicating a potential market top. Regarding Bitcoin, Brandt offers a forecast based on historical cycles: BTC may first rebound by $10,000, then retreat to the $40,000 range, forming the bottom of the current cycle around early October 2026. With the current price fluctuating near $60,000, he warns of the downside risk associated with false breakouts. Maintaining a long-term optimistic view, Brandt suggests that if Bitcoin continues its four-year halving cycle pattern, the price could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.
According to The Block, Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin has been trading below the realized market mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200) for five consecutive months, marking one of the longest deep value periods in its history. Daily average realized losses for long-term holders reached $280 million, the highest since December 2022, accounting for 43% of the total on-chain realized value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84.86 million on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows. In terms of derivatives, the options open interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, while perpetual funding rates remained below neutral levels, indicating the market overall holds a cautiously bullish positioning. In terms of geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed, and the U.S. Central Command carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran, causing Bitcoin's weekly gains to narrow from 9.4% to approximately 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued cooling of long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and the price reclaiming the realized market mean are the three prerequisite conditions for the market to enter a bull market.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.