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Peter Brandt: Nasdaq Futures Show Diamond Top Formation, Bitcoin May Bottom at $40,000
Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader and renowned chart analyst, has released his latest technical analysis. He points out that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures is forming a diamond pattern, indicating a potential market top. Regarding Bitcoin, Brandt offers a forecast based on historical cycles: BTC may first rebound by $10,000, then retreat to the $40,000 range, forming the bottom of the current cycle around early October 2026. With the current price fluctuating near $60,000, he warns of the downside risk associated with false breakouts. Maintaining a long-term optimistic view, Brandt suggests that if Bitcoin continues its four-year halving cycle pattern, the price could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.
Bitcoin Bottom Formation Underway, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Hits New High Since 2022
According to The Block, Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin has been trading below the realized market mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200) for five consecutive months, marking one of the longest deep value periods in its history. Daily average realized losses for long-term holders reached $280 million, the highest since December 2022, accounting for 43% of the total on-chain realized value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84.86 million on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows. In terms of derivatives, the options open interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, while perpetual funding rates remained below neutral levels, indicating the market overall holds a cautiously bullish positioning. In terms of geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed, and the U.S. Central Command carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran, causing Bitcoin's weekly gains to narrow from 9.4% to approximately 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued cooling of long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and the price reclaiming the realized market mean are the three prerequisite conditions for the market to enter a bull market.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Model Shows BTC Needs to Drop to $59,000 for Mid-to-Long Term Bottom Formation to Begin
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.
Peter Brandt: Nasdaq Futures Show Diamond Top Formation, Bitcoin May Bottom at $40,000
Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader and renowned chart analyst, has released his latest technical analysis. He points out that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures is forming a diamond pattern, indicating a potential market top. Regarding Bitcoin, Brandt offers a forecast based on historical cycles: BTC may first rebound by $10,000, then retreat to the $40,000 range, forming the bottom of the current cycle around early October 2026. With the current price fluctuating near $60,000, he warns of the downside risk associated with false breakouts. Maintaining a long-term optimistic view, Brandt suggests that if Bitcoin continues its four-year halving cycle pattern, the price could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.
Curated Exchange: Publishes DMF Paper and Same-Name Framework to Achieve "Exchange Deployment for Everyone"
Odaily Odaily News: Curated Exchange was officially launched on May 29, 2026. The project was initiated by open-source developers and research scholars. Its underlying theory is based on the academic paper "Decentralized Market Formation" published on SSRN in May this year. The core proposition is to establish a more effective mechanism for discovering, screening, and selecting long-tail assets through a low-cost multi-exchange parallel structure.Any individual, community, or institution can deploy a dedicated vertical trading portal with zero barriers, screen assets, and earn fees. All Venues share the same underlying liquidity. Different from the centralized coin-listing decisions of CEXs and the non-screening mechanism of AMMs, DMF replaces capital access with cognitive access—Curators act as asset gatekeepers based on professional judgment rather than capital scale, ensuring that high-quality long-tail assets are systematically discovered through Curators with reputational constraints.Curated positions itself as a neutral infrastructure provider, avoiding commercial competition with ecosystem participants, and will fully open-source its code in the future. The testnet will be officially launched in June 2026.
Kalshi Supports Formation of Prediction Market Lobbying Group, Former Trump Administration Official Appointed as Strategic Advisor
prediction market platform Kalshi has announced support for the establishment of a new prediction market lobbying organization, Americans for Fair Markets, and has appointed Taylor Budowich, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, as a strategic advisor. The organization will confront the sports betting and casino industries, which it alleges are "trying to maintain their monopoly and spread misinformation about prediction markets to policymakers."According to reports, Americans for Fair Markets will push for federal-level regulatory policy for prediction markets and launch paid advocacy campaigns to counter what it calls "false narratives" about the industry. The organization will also join a broader industry lobbying camp, including the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which was founded in December 2025 with support from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives launched an investigation into Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms handle insider trading issues. As prediction markets face increased scrutiny in the United States and globally, related regulatory controversies continue to escalate.Kalshi stated that the new organization will support the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulation of prediction markets and will advocate for KYC requirements, a ban on insider trading, and restrictions on markets related to violence and terrorism under a federal regulatory framework. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, said: "We will not be outspent or out-organized by established interests trying to protect their monopoly." (Cointelegraph)
Related news
Peter Brandt: Nasdaq Futures Show Diamond Top Formation, Bitcoin May Bottom at $40,000
Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader and renowned chart analyst, has released his latest technical analysis. He points out that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures is forming a diamond pattern, indicating a potential market top. Regarding Bitcoin, Brandt offers a forecast based on historical cycles: BTC may first rebound by $10,000, then retreat to the $40,000 range, forming the bottom of the current cycle around early October 2026. With the current price fluctuating near $60,000, he warns of the downside risk associated with false breakouts. Maintaining a long-term optimistic view, Brandt suggests that if Bitcoin continues its four-year halving cycle pattern, the price could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.
Bitcoin Bottom Formation Underway, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Hits New High Since 2022
According to The Block, Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin has been trading below the realized market mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200) for five consecutive months, marking one of the longest deep value periods in its history. Daily average realized losses for long-term holders reached $280 million, the highest since December 2022, accounting for 43% of the total on-chain realized value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84.86 million on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows. In terms of derivatives, the options open interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, while perpetual funding rates remained below neutral levels, indicating the market overall holds a cautiously bullish positioning. In terms of geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed, and the U.S. Central Command carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran, causing Bitcoin's weekly gains to narrow from 9.4% to approximately 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued cooling of long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and the price reclaiming the realized market mean are the three prerequisite conditions for the market to enter a bull market.
KRW Stablecoin Alliance Accelerates Formation Amid Intensive Partnerships Between Banks and Fintech Giants
According to Yonhap News Agency, despite the absence of finalized legislation on the Korean won (KRW) stablecoin, major South Korean banks and fintech companies have accelerated efforts to form alliances. KB Kookmin Bank plans to collaborate with Toss, with KB taking the lead in issuance and Toss handling circulation; Shinhan Financial Group continues its collaboration with Samsung Financial; Woori Bank and NH Nonghyup Financial Group are currently considering Kakao’s partnership proposal; Hana Bank has already invested 1 trillion KRW in Dunamu and is jointly building South Korea’s largest stablecoin ecosystem with Naver. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea is advancing the “Han River Project,” a pilot program for tokenized deposits. If this project launches rapidly, it could fuel claims that KRW stablecoins are unnecessary, further delaying related legislative progress.
Curated Exchange: Publishes DMF Paper and Same-Name Framework to Achieve "Exchange Deployment for Everyone"
Odaily Odaily News: Curated Exchange was officially launched on May 29, 2026. The project was initiated by open-source developers and research scholars. Its underlying theory is based on the academic paper "Decentralized Market Formation" published on SSRN in May this year. The core proposition is to establish a more effective mechanism for discovering, screening, and selecting long-tail assets through a low-cost multi-exchange parallel structure.Any individual, community, or institution can deploy a dedicated vertical trading portal with zero barriers, screen assets, and earn fees. All Venues share the same underlying liquidity. Different from the centralized coin-listing decisions of CEXs and the non-screening mechanism of AMMs, DMF replaces capital access with cognitive access—Curators act as asset gatekeepers based on professional judgment rather than capital scale, ensuring that high-quality long-tail assets are systematically discovered through Curators with reputational constraints.Curated positions itself as a neutral infrastructure provider, avoiding commercial competition with ecosystem participants, and will fully open-source its code in the future. The testnet will be officially launched in June 2026.
Kalshi Supports Formation of Prediction Market Lobbying Group, Former Trump Administration Official Appointed as Strategic Advisor
prediction market platform Kalshi has announced support for the establishment of a new prediction market lobbying organization, Americans for Fair Markets, and has appointed Taylor Budowich, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, as a strategic advisor. The organization will confront the sports betting and casino industries, which it alleges are "trying to maintain their monopoly and spread misinformation about prediction markets to policymakers."According to reports, Americans for Fair Markets will push for federal-level regulatory policy for prediction markets and launch paid advocacy campaigns to counter what it calls "false narratives" about the industry. The organization will also join a broader industry lobbying camp, including the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which was founded in December 2025 with support from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives launched an investigation into Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms handle insider trading issues. As prediction markets face increased scrutiny in the United States and globally, related regulatory controversies continue to escalate.Kalshi stated that the new organization will support the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulation of prediction markets and will advocate for KYC requirements, a ban on insider trading, and restrictions on markets related to violence and terrorism under a federal regulatory framework. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, said: "We will not be outspent or out-organized by established interests trying to protect their monopoly." (Cointelegraph)
CryptoQuant Analyst: Model Shows BTC Needs to Drop to $59,000 for Mid-to-Long Term Bottom Formation to Begin
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.