News linked to both this project and an event.
: U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with platform trading volume soaring from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14. The single "World Cup Champion" prediction market saw trading volume exceed $1.2 billion. Kalshi stated that its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as the volume of AI-generated content increases substantially, authentic, real-time, and non-replicable human interaction scenarios are becoming scarcer, positioning prediction markets as a novel tool for observing public sentiment and collective judgment.Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform into the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds Designated Contract Market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into more prediction areas including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics. (Fortune)
Coinbase sent an AI-generated news alert claiming the Norwegian national football team had defeated Brazil 3-2 before the World Cup match had even started. CEO Brian Armstrong has launched an investigation, and Coinbase stated that updates have been implemented to prevent future instances of inaccurate AI-generated information. The error comes as Coinbase is advancing its prediction market and "everything exchange" features, including an AI advisor and stock options. (CoinDesk).
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
: The World Cup will kick off on June 11, and the Hong Kong police have launched the Gobi and Wind Shield operations, targeting illegal offshore gambling through publicity, education, intelligence, and law enforcement. The police noted that in recent years, illegal gambling has become increasingly digitalized, including online betting, solicitation of gamblers via social media, and settlement of bets with virtual currencies. The police stated that they still have the capability to trace participants.According to the law, placing bets with offshore bookmakers carries a maximum penalty of 9 months in prison and a fine of HK$50,000. Accepting bets carries a maximum penalty of 7 years in prison and a fine of HK$5 million. Money laundering carries a maximum penalty of 14 years in prison and a fine of HK$5 million. The police also shared the case of a young man who was addicted to offshore gambling, at one point owing as much as HK$160,000. A police clinical psychologist warned that those who start gambling before the age of 18 have an over 80% risk of developing gambling disorder later in life. (Sing Tao Daily)
Digital trading platform Moomoo has announced a partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi to offer eligible users access to event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users can trade contracts related to major events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, elections, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup directly through the Moomoo platform.Event contracts are exchange-traded derivatives that allow investors to bet on the outcome of specific events. Contract prices range from $0.01 to $1, reflecting the market's expectation of the probability of each event occurring. These products will be integrated into the platform alongside Moomoo's existing offerings of stocks, options, and ETFs. Additionally, Moomoo has recently launched cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal functionality, as well as the moomoo API Skills service for AI-powered investment tools, continuing to expand its product ecosystem. (CoinDesk)