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According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
According to The Block, bipartisan Senators Thom Tillis (Republican) and Ruben Gallego (Democrat) submitted a new ethics compromise proposal to the White House on Thursday morning local time, attempting to break the deadlock in advancing the Clarity Act cryptocurrency legislation. Currently, there is less than a week left until the Senate recesses on August 7, but the bill still has not obtained the 60 votes required for passage. Democrats insist on adding stricter ethics provisions to constrain the Trump family's crypto interests, including the Meme coins they issued and the World Liberty Financial project in which the family participates, while some Republican senators have objections to the stablecoin interest provisions, worrying that it will divert deposits from traditional banks to the crypto sector. Although the draft leaked last week prohibited public officials and their spouses from issuing digital assets, it did not cover other family members, and included a "sunset clause" expiring in January 2029, which critics believe essentially nullifies the entire ethics provision. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently blamed the Democrats on X, stating that they "chose political gaming on the verge of a major victory". The Crypto Innovation Committee (CCI) warned that if the bill fails to pass, the US will hand over its global leadership position in the field of crypto regulation.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Fox Business crypto journalist posted on platform X, stating that according to multiple sources outside Capitol Hill, the latest ethics proposal coordinated by SenThomTillis and SenRubenGallego includes a role for state attorneys general, but the full details of the plan and the additional provisions added in response to White House concerns remain unclear. The White House is currently reviewing the latest draft received this morning. Additionally, the journalist learned that industry representatives spent most of yesterday calling the White House, arguing that reaching an ethical compromise is crucial to advancing the Clarity Act's legislative process. The White House's response will largely determine whether the Senate moves forward with the bill's vote next week.
Odaily News: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate on Thursday to pass the Clarity Act, stating that the House of Representatives passed the bill over a year ago, and staff from the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees have since conducted thousands of hours of negotiations on bipartisan amendments. Bessent stated that the bill will enhance consumer protection and anti-money laundering requirements while providing regulatory certainty for digital assets. He also noted that the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act provision within the Clarity Act will protect decentralized software developers, making it clear that they are not subject to the registration requirements of the Bank Secrecy Act. Bessent criticized Senate Democrats for delaying the vote for political reasons, arguing that the vote will determine whether the United States maintains its global leadership position in digital assets. He concluded his statement by quoting Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto: "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry." The Clarity Act aims to establish a federal framework for the US digital asset market and divide the regulatory responsibilities for digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC, with most crypto assets generally falling under CFTC jurisdiction. Senate Majority Leader John Thune recently indicated that the bill is not expected to pass the Senate before the August recess.
JPMorgan has stated the decreased probability of the Clarity Act passing this year poses an obstacle to the crypto market and institutional adoption. JPMorgan indicated that the legislation would provide regulatory clarity, encouraging banks and asset management firms to expand into the digital asset space. Related delays could shift tokenization towards traditional financial infrastructure rather than public blockchain networks.
According to Decrypt, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that if Congress fails to pass the Clarity Act, the SEC is "ready at any time" to issue cryptocurrency market rules independently. Atkins emphasized that legislation is the only way to prevent the regulatory framework from shifting with changing administrations, and expressed continued optimism regarding the bill's ultimate passage. Currently, the Clarity Act passed the House of Representatives last July with a 294-134 vote, and passed the Senate Banking Committee this May with a 15-9 vote, but has not yet undergone a full Senate vote (requiring 60 votes to pass). Senate Majority Leader Thune recently hinted that the bill may not be voted on before the August recess. If passed, the bill would transfer regulatory authority over the spot market for most tokens to the CFTC, removing them from SEC jurisdiction. The SEC has made advance arrangements; the "Project Crypto" regulatory scheme advanced by Atkins has been included in the 2026 agenda, covering token registration exemptions, safe harbors, and broker-dealer custody, and is regarded as a transitional plan for the Clarity Act.
According to reporter Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett), the controversy surrounding the BRCA provisions in the Clarity Act continues to intensify. Two key groups representing prosecutors have submitted amendment proposals to the White House, proposing to remove relevant provisions protecting software developers from criminal prosecution, but the National Sheriffs' Association (@NationalSheriff), which previously publicly opposed the Clarity Act, did not co-sign the proposal. In response, both the White House and the Treasury denied Senator Cortez Masto's claim that "the proposal reflects their position." Crypto Council Executive Director Patrick Witt stated that the proposal is "far from" the government's position, while the Treasury directly pointed out that the wording of the relevant provisions came from Washington lobbyists.
BlackRock、Fidelity 等华尔街机构公开支持《Clarity Act》加密监管法案，但 JPMorgan 与 Coinbase 在稳定币条款上存在分歧，参议院休会前立法时间紧迫。
Fox Business crypto journalist posted on X that former NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood stated last week that credit unions play an important role in modernizing the financial system. A few days later, AmericasCUs, along with credit union leagues in all 50 U.S. states, supported the vast majority of the Clarity Act. However, they echoed the banking industry's concerns regarding the bill's stablecoin yield provisions, urging senators to strengthen the language. These groups believe that the current Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise could still allow for "functionally passive" reward structures, potentially causing deposits to flow out of local credit unions.
on July 28 that U.S. Senator Jon Husted publicly supported the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, stating that if the United States wants to maintain its leading position in the digital asset field, it needs a clear, enforceable regulatory framework that supports innovation and employment.The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for crypto regulation in the U.S., dividing jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill classifies tokens into three categories, granting the CFTC exclusive regulatory authority over the spot market for digital commodities, while the SEC continues to oversee assets that still resemble securities.Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 from 50% to 30%. Alex Thorn, the firm's Head of Research, stated that the 60-vote threshold in the Senate is the main obstacle, and supporters may not yet hold a simple majority.The revised version of the bill proposes to prohibit the President, Vice President, members of Congress, federal judges, and their spouses from receiving compensation through the issuance or sponsorship of digital assets during their term in office until January 2029. It also requires relevant officials to sell their cryptocurrency holdings or place them in a blind trust.
: New York Attorney General Letitia James submitted written testimony to the U.S. Congress, urging stronger regulation of cryptocurrency companies and warning that proposed federal legislation could undermine states' ability to investigate fraud and hold platforms accountable. Letitia James stated that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would preempt state-level digital asset market regulation and transfer oversight authority to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), thereby weakening state and local enforcement. She disclosed that the New York Attorney General’s Office has seen a threefold increase in crypto fraud complaints over the past three years, with total reported losses over the past five years approaching $500 million. She called on crypto platforms to comply with anti-money laundering, know-your-customer (KYC), and cybersecurity requirements, monitor suspicious activity and market manipulation, and be held financially responsible when they fail to protect customers from fraud.
As the 2026 midterm elections enter the final 100-day countdown, cryptocurrency advocacy group Stand With Crypto stated in a post on X on July 26 that nearly 70% of surveyed cryptocurrency holders believe a candidate's stance on crypto will influence their vote, and nearly 80% indicated they are almost certain to vote. Stand With Crypto noted that 73% of surveyed crypto holders are closely monitoring which crypto policies lawmakers support, while 59% do not have a fixed party affiliation. The organization stated that crypto supporters have contacted Congress over 1 million times regarding relevant legislation. Market attention is focused on the CLARITY Act, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in digital asset regulation, and will influence whether certain digital assets are classified as securities or commodities under federal oversight. Supporters of the bill argue that there is a limited time window to advance legislation before the election-year agenda tightens. Opponents contend that any new framework must maintain protections against fraud, market manipulation, and investor losses. The discussions involve issues such as exchange access, investment products, taxation, and the role of federal regulators in digital finance.
a US Senator has released a new draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Clarity Act), merging two previously advanced versions from the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee, and for the first time, includes content related to ethics clauses. The ethics clause in the new draft proposes to prohibit senior government officials from sponsoring or issuing their personal cryptocurrencies. The bill has not yet been fully advanced, and it remains uncertain whether the key provisions will receive bipartisan support.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Bitcoin News posted on X, stating that Fidelity Investments is calling on the U.S. Senate to pass the Clarity Act, emphasizing that clear regulatory frameworks are essential for building investor trust and securing U.S. leadership in the digital asset industry.
: Fox Business crypto reporter posted on X platform that the National Fraternal Order of Police, one of the key law enforcement groups involved in the negotiations for the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, now supports the latest version of the Clarity Act, stating that the revised BRCA wording addresses their previous concerns and preserves law enforcement’s ability to investigate crypto crimes. In the latest version of the bill released on Wednesday, the BRCA content remained unchanged, so it is unclear what specific changes the group is referring to.
Odaily News: Fox Business crypto reporter posted on platform X that Digital Chamber, Crypto Council, and Blockchain Association are urging U.S. Senate leadership to bring the Clarity Act to a full floor vote, despite the bill currently lacking the necessary support for advancement.
U.S. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego stated that he will work with Republicans to propose a counter-proposal regarding the ethics clause in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) that has been recognized by the White House. He stated that the draft published this week is “not a serious proposal.” U.S. Senate Republicans released the proposed text of the CLARITY Act on Wednesday, including an ethics clause that prohibits all U.S. federal officials, including U.S. President Donald Trump, from issuing or sponsoring any digital assets. Democrats believe the relevant ethics provision is insufficient. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno denied that the clause was weak, stating that the draft contains “the most powerful ethical language in American history.” Gallego stated that he will work with Senator Thom Tillis and other Republicans to advance a counter-proposal and submit new text for the clause.
据 Decrypt 报道，高盛董事长兼 CEO 大卫·所罗门公开表态支持加密货币市场结构法案（Clarity Act），称其有助于"建立公平竞争环境、提升市场稳定性并推动创新"。此举与摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙及多家银行业协会的立场明显相左——后者强烈反对法案中允许稳定币提供收益的条款，认为此举将吸走传统银行存款。 目前，参议院共和党人正在流传最新法案草案，新增了限制总统及其家人参与加密业务的伦理条款，但该限制将于 2029 年到期且不适用于特朗普之子，遭民主党批评力度不足。法案能否在八月休会前完成参议院投票，前景仍不明朗。
Fox Business crypto journalist posted on X platform, stating that USHCC, which claims to represent millions of Hispanic-owned businesses in the United States, wrote to Senate leadership this week, saying it shares community banks' concerns that the Clarity Act could accelerate deposit outflows. The organization believes the bill would reduce lending to Hispanic small businesses and weaken investment in underserved communities.