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According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
According to The Block, bipartisan Senators Thom Tillis (Republican) and Ruben Gallego (Democrat) submitted a new ethics compromise proposal to the White House on Thursday morning local time, attempting to break the deadlock in advancing the Clarity Act cryptocurrency legislation. Currently, there is less than a week left until the Senate recesses on August 7, but the bill still has not obtained the 60 votes required for passage. Democrats insist on adding stricter ethics provisions to constrain the Trump family's crypto interests, including the Meme coins they issued and the World Liberty Financial project in which the family participates, while some Republican senators have objections to the stablecoin interest provisions, worrying that it will divert deposits from traditional banks to the crypto sector. Although the draft leaked last week prohibited public officials and their spouses from issuing digital assets, it did not cover other family members, and included a "sunset clause" expiring in January 2029, which critics believe essentially nullifies the entire ethics provision. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently blamed the Democrats on X, stating that they "chose political gaming on the verge of a major victory". The Crypto Innovation Committee (CCI) warned that if the bill fails to pass, the US will hand over its global leadership position in the field of crypto regulation.
BlackRock、Fidelity 等华尔街机构公开支持《Clarity Act》加密监管法案，但 JPMorgan 与 Coinbase 在稳定币条款上存在分歧，参议院休会前立法时间紧迫。
Fox Business crypto journalist posted on X that former NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood stated last week that credit unions play an important role in modernizing the financial system. A few days later, AmericasCUs, along with credit union leagues in all 50 U.S. states, supported the vast majority of the Clarity Act. However, they echoed the banking industry's concerns regarding the bill's stablecoin yield provisions, urging senators to strengthen the language. These groups believe that the current Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise could still allow for "functionally passive" reward structures, potentially causing deposits to flow out of local credit unions.
on July 28 that U.S. Senator Jon Husted publicly supported the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, stating that if the United States wants to maintain its leading position in the digital asset field, it needs a clear, enforceable regulatory framework that supports innovation and employment.The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for crypto regulation in the U.S., dividing jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill classifies tokens into three categories, granting the CFTC exclusive regulatory authority over the spot market for digital commodities, while the SEC continues to oversee assets that still resemble securities.Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 from 50% to 30%. Alex Thorn, the firm's Head of Research, stated that the 60-vote threshold in the Senate is the main obstacle, and supporters may not yet hold a simple majority.The revised version of the bill proposes to prohibit the President, Vice President, members of Congress, federal judges, and their spouses from receiving compensation through the issuance or sponsorship of digital assets during their term in office until January 2029. It also requires relevant officials to sell their cryptocurrency holdings or place them in a blind trust.
: Fox Business crypto journalist posted on platform X that the crypto industry hopes U.S. Senate Republicans will push the Clarity Act to the floor voting process this week and seek support from Democrats.
As the 2026 midterm elections enter the final 100-day countdown, cryptocurrency advocacy group Stand With Crypto stated in a post on X on July 26 that nearly 70% of surveyed cryptocurrency holders believe a candidate's stance on crypto will influence their vote, and nearly 80% indicated they are almost certain to vote. Stand With Crypto noted that 73% of surveyed crypto holders are closely monitoring which crypto policies lawmakers support, while 59% do not have a fixed party affiliation. The organization stated that crypto supporters have contacted Congress over 1 million times regarding relevant legislation. Market attention is focused on the CLARITY Act, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in digital asset regulation, and will influence whether certain digital assets are classified as securities or commodities under federal oversight. Supporters of the bill argue that there is a limited time window to advance legislation before the election-year agenda tightens. Opponents contend that any new framework must maintain protections against fraud, market manipulation, and investor losses. The discussions involve issues such as exchange access, investment products, taxation, and the role of federal regulators in digital finance.
a US Senator has released a new draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Clarity Act), merging two previously advanced versions from the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee, and for the first time, includes content related to ethics clauses. The ethics clause in the new draft proposes to prohibit senior government officials from sponsoring or issuing their personal cryptocurrencies. The bill has not yet been fully advanced, and it remains uncertain whether the key provisions will receive bipartisan support.
: Fox Business crypto reporter posted on X platform that the National Fraternal Order of Police, one of the key law enforcement groups involved in the negotiations for the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, now supports the latest version of the Clarity Act, stating that the revised BRCA wording addresses their previous concerns and preserves law enforcement’s ability to investigate crypto crimes. In the latest version of the bill released on Wednesday, the BRCA content remained unchanged, so it is unclear what specific changes the group is referring to.
Odaily News: Fox Business crypto reporter posted on platform X that Digital Chamber, Crypto Council, and Blockchain Association are urging U.S. Senate leadership to bring the Clarity Act to a full floor vote, despite the bill currently lacking the necessary support for advancement.
据 Decrypt 报道，高盛董事长兼 CEO 大卫·所罗门公开表态支持加密货币市场结构法案（Clarity Act），称其有助于"建立公平竞争环境、提升市场稳定性并推动创新"。此举与摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙及多家银行业协会的立场明显相左——后者强烈反对法案中允许稳定币提供收益的条款，认为此举将吸走传统银行存款。 目前，参议院共和党人正在流传最新法案草案，新增了限制总统及其家人参与加密业务的伦理条款，但该限制将于 2029 年到期且不适用于特朗普之子，遭民主党批评力度不足。法案能否在八月休会前完成参议院投票，前景仍不明朗。
参议员 Lummis 表示 Clarity 法案中的道德条款及非法金融规定仍需进一步协商，民主党方面对当前版本持反对态度。
According to The Block, Senate Republicans have released the latest text of the Clarity Act, consolidating previous versions from the Agriculture Committee and the Banking Committee, with plans to submit it for a full Senate vote as early as next week.
U.S. Senate Republicans on Wednesday released a 616-page draft of the new Clarity Act, a significant legislative development in Congress's efforts to comprehensively regulate the digital asset industry. The crypto industry widely welcomed the draft, noting it retains protections for software developers and is expected to provide long-missing regulatory clarity for the U.S. digital asset market.Crypto Council for Innovation CEO Ji Hun Kim stated that bipartisan support is "critical" for the bill's passage. Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine called on Congress to seize the opportunity, while Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong remarked that the lack of a federal regulatory framework had previously allowed bad actors like FTX to harm consumers and forced a substantial amount of crypto business to move overseas.However, several Senate Democrats quickly voiced opposition, arguing that the ethics provisions in the new text addressing conflicts of interest related to Trump's crypto assets are too weak. Senator Angela Alsobrooks stated that the current proposal put forward by Republicans is still "not enough," and that provisions concerning elected officials' ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest, and market integrity all require strengthening.
Mizuho analysts stated that if the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," is passed, while it may generally benefit the digital asset industry, the long-term impact on Circle could be negative. The reason is that regulatory clarity will attract more large institutions into the stablecoin market, further accelerating stablecoin commodification and eroding the revenue potential of Circle's USDC.Mizuho believes that the primary pressure Circle faces in the near term comes from Open USD. This stablecoin project is backed by a coalition of over 140 financial, technology, and crypto companies, with members including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase. Unlike Circle's model, which retains approximately 38% of USDC reserve yields, Open USD employs a "pass-through" model, distributing nearly all reserve yields to distribution partners while retaining only a small management fee.Analysts also noted that Coinbase, as the largest distributor of USDC, also supports Open USD. This could give Coinbase stronger bargaining power when renegotiating its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle in the future. The distribution agreement between the two parties could be up for renegotiation as early as next month.
Odaily News: Fox Business crypto reporter posted on X platform that, following a briefing call with stakeholders this morning, U.S. Senate Republicans have just released an updated version of the Clarity Act. The latest text includes key provisions on ethics, BRCA, and other areas that have been under scrutiny.
According to a post by reporter Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett), an industry insider invited to attend revealed that industry stakeholders will hold a conference call with Republican leadership that morning to communicate updates on the latest text of the "Crypto Clarity Bill".
one year after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Clarity for Digital Assets Act (CLARITY Act), the bill remains stalled in the Senate, facing opposition from the banking industry and partisan divisions. Supporters anticipate a potential vote before the Senate's August recess. Industry organizations Coin Center and the Blockchain Association have identified Section 604 as a key provision for protecting open-source innovation. This provision aims to prevent non-custodial blockchain developers, node operators, and validators from being classified as federal money transmitters. Stefan Muehlbauer, Head of U.S. Government Affairs at CertiK, stated that removing Section 604 could conflate software development with financial services, subjecting developers to the Bank Secrecy Act and triggering First Amendment-related constitutional challenges. Iana Dimitrova, CEO of Openpayd, noted that the expanding use of stablecoins for cross-border value transfer has made the need for a federal regulatory framework more apparent. The bill also addresses accounting standards, acknowledges the rescission of SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin SAB 121, and prohibits the SEC from reimposing equivalent crypto custody accounting requirements without a full notice-and-comment rulemaking process. Mark Zalan, CEO of Gomining, pointed out that Bitcoin still faces regulatory gaps, such as tax treatment.
Fox Business crypto reporter posted on platform X, stating that after President Trump met with Republican senators last Thursday, the White House has not yet reached an agreement on ethical parameters. The industry is still awaiting the updated version of the bill text.
As reported by Crypto in America, with only 14 working days remaining before the Senate's August recess, the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," still has no confirmed voting date, the latest bill text has not been released, and negotiations on core disputes remain deadlocked. The core sticking point lies in the ethics provisions—relevant clauses aimed at preventing government officials from profiting from digital assets have not yet received White House backing. Last Thursday, Trump held a closed-door meeting in the Oval Office with Senators Cynthia Lummis, Bernie Moreno, the White House Chief of Staff, and others, but as of now, the White House has not clearly stated which ethical parameters it supports. Other major points of contention include: • Whether the BRCA (Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act) can be retained, as it is currently publicly opposed by the National Sheriffs' Association, which calls cryptocurrency the "cartel's currency of choice" • Certain provisions of the Agriculture Committee, involving conflict of interest issues such as crypto exchange vertical integration, related-party transactions, and state law preemption • Whether the support votes of Democratic Senators Warner and Cortez Masto can be secured, as their stance depends on whether the bill adequately addresses law enforcement's concerns regarding illicit finance The prevailing view on Capitol Hill is that negotiating parties must complete the groundwork for procedural votes before this weekend, otherwise the bill will miss the final window of opportunity before the August recess.