Jiang Zhuoer: Uncertainty Surrounds Concessions on Key Provisions of U.S. Clarity Act, Prospects for September 16 Procedural Vote Unclear

According to an analysis by Jiangzhuoer (@Jiangzhuoer2), CEO of Litecoin Pool, after Republicans released a new draft of the Clarify Act claiming concessions on 80% of the disputed provisions, Polymarket's passage probability rose accordingly from 14% to 28%. Upon closer inspection, however, the actual concession rate is around 60%, with only partial compromises made on key provisions. Under the ethics clause, the new draft expands restrictions to officials and their spouses but still excludes children and affiliated entities, a move criticized as having limited practical impact; regarding the enforcement clause, while it allows state attorneys general to sue exchanges for listing non-compliant tokens, it explicitly bars suing the Department of Justice for regulatory inaction or the President directly. Jiangzhuoer believes that Democrats lack any incentive to "hand Trump a gift" ahead of the midterm elections, making it unlikely they would endorse this "fake compromise." Consequently, the prospect of the procedural vote passing at 2:15 AM Beijing Time on September 16 is slim, and a failed vote on the Clarify Act could mark the beginning of a correction in the current BTC uptrend.