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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin has been oscillating around the key support level of $60,000 for nearly 165 days, failing to hold firm and reignite upward momentum. One core reason is the market's lack of new liquidity. Over the past 30 days, the net outflow of stablecoin reserves from Binance and Bybit has approached $2.3 billion. New demand, whether flowing into Bitcoin or the entire crypto market, remains weak. Since the beginning of this year, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have continued to decline. This rather pessimistic market sentiment continues to restrict the funding support needed for Bitcoin to break out of its current consolidation range.However, as regulatory measures like the GENIUS Act require stablecoins to improve compliance, the decentralized nature of the stablecoin ecosystem may be weakened. In the long term, Bitcoin's decentralized characteristics could thereby become more prominent.
QCP’s market analysis notes that with Trump pausing “Project Freedom,” the geopolitical risk premium has receded, leading to lower oil prices, higher U.S. equities, and a weaker U.S. dollar—BTC has rebounded above $80,000, reflecting improved liquidity, a softer dollar, and rising risk appetite as a high-beta asset. However, the options market has not yet confirmed a full breakout: the one-month at-the-money implied volatility stands at approximately 41%, front-end volatility is weakening, and the 30-day risk reversal remains in a relatively elevated put-protective state at around −5.5 volatility points. QCP also cautions that Japan’s markets are emerging as a new macro stress point; further yen weakness and rising Japanese government bond yields could marginally tighten global liquidity. Currently, BTC needs to sustainably break above the $82,000–$83,000 range.