QCP: BTC Reclaims $80,000+, But Options Market Has Yet to Confirm the Breakout

QCP’s market analysis notes that with Trump pausing “Project Freedom,” the geopolitical risk premium has receded, leading to lower oil prices, higher U.S. equities, and a weaker U.S. dollar—BTC has rebounded above $80,000, reflecting improved liquidity, a softer dollar, and rising risk appetite as a high-beta asset. However, the options market has not yet confirmed a full breakout: the one-month at-the-money implied volatility stands at approximately 41%, front-end volatility is weakening, and the 30-day risk reversal remains in a relatively elevated put-protective state at around −5.5 volatility points. QCP also cautions that Japan’s markets are emerging as a new macro stress point; further yen weakness and rising Japanese government bond yields could marginally tighten global liquidity. Currently, BTC needs to sustainably break above the $82,000–$83,000 range.