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According to QCP analysis, this week features a dense schedule of macroeconomic events, with market attention focused on three key themes: First, President Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing this week, with discussions expected to cover tariffs, the rare-earth supply chain, and the Middle East situation; markets are watching closely to see whether substantive progress can be achieved on trade. Second, April’s CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released sequentially; if inflation stabilizes, real yields may decline—historically providing support for the crypto market—whereas the opposite would reinforce expectations of monetary tightening. Third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings on the CLARITY Act; legislative progress could further catalyze institutional capital inflows. Currently, despite ETF outflows last week, BTC has held the $80,000 level, while crypto volatility remains near its lowest point of the year, with the VIX at approximately 18. In the short term, BTC is highly likely to remain range-bound, with $84,000 serving as a key resistance level.
: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, stated he expects Bitcoin to revisit its all-time high within the next 12 months. This is because the current correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index is near a five-year high, and the resilience of the US stock market provides support for this rebound. However, the derivatives market has not yet shown significant optimism; futures and options trading largely reflects short covering and hedging demand. From a contrarian perspective, this suggests the Bitcoin rally may still have room to continue.Matthew Sigel also noted that a central bank has already announced plans to include Bitcoin in its foreign exchange reserves this year, indicating that BTC is gradually evolving into a global asset suitable for large-scale cross-border settlements. He believes this will become a long-term trend. In terms of investment direction, he favors a further increase in Bitcoin's market dominance, as well as Bitcoin mining companies poised to benefit from the trend of AI integration. He believes mining companies are increasingly becoming significant beneficiaries of AI infrastructure, and as AI-related businesses grow, the pressure on miners to sell BTC for financing is also decreasing.Furthermore, Matthew Sigel believes that if the CLARITY Act is eventually passed, it could revitalize sentiment in the altcoin market. However, currently, most institutional investors remain cautious towards the majority of altcoins due to regulatory and investor protection concerns.
According to PRNewswire, market analysis reports indicate that Coinbase and Kraken together account for 22% of all AI mentions across the cryptocurrency category—Coinbase accounts for 13%, and Kraken for 9%—holding a lead over other U.S. trading platforms by more than threefold. Gemini ranks third with 5.5%, Robinhood Crypto fourth with 5%, and BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), IBIT, fifth with 4.5%, dominating queries related to “Bitcoin ETFs.” Additionally, hardware wallets are losing influence in AI responses: while Ledger and Trezor still dominate queries related to “cryptocurrency wallets,” AI increasingly recommends custodial solutions offered by regulated trading platforms when addressing questions about the “best way to store cryptocurrency assets.” (Note: “AI mentions” refers to how frequently an AI chatbot references a particular brand, product, or company when responding to user queries.)
South Korea plans to impose a 22% tax on virtual asset gains exceeding 2.5 million won starting January next year. Officials have confirmed that the timeline will proceed as scheduled. The policy faces calls for repeal from the opposition, and there is a possibility of further postponement. (Bitcoin News)
Arthur Hayes stated at the Consensus Miami 2026 event that 99% of altcoins could drop to zero, which is part of a normal market cleansing. Since 1929, approximately 98% of companies in the S&P 500 have gone to zero, meaning most stocks are also altcoins over the long term. Cryptocurrencies crash faster due to 24/7 trading and a lack of restrictions. He suggests viewing tokens as software; the failure of most software projects due to an inability to attract users is a normal business reality.The price and future value of Bitcoin depend on the total amount of fiat currency and the speed at which it is created, and are unrelated to politics or regulation. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $82,000, and its utility lies in allowing users to transfer value outside the traditional financial system. Centralized crypto companies seek regulation to protect their businesses, but this will not impact the validity of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.
According to Cointelegraph, after a 15-month investigation, police in New South Wales, Australia, seized 52.3 bitcoins—valued at approximately AUD 5.7 million (about USD 4.1 million)—and arrested two suspects allegedly operating a dark web marketplace in Ingleburn, Sydney. Authorities stated that the seized bitcoins are suspected proceeds from illicit dark web activities linked to drug and weapons trafficking. The operation, conducted by the State Crime Command’s Cybercrime Squad (Strike Force Andalusia), is regarded as one of the largest dark web-related cryptocurrency seizures ever carried out in Australia. Meanwhile, AUSTRAC has recently intensified its anti-money laundering (AML) oversight of domestic virtual asset service providers and cryptocurrency exchanges.
CoinMarketCap’s April 2026 Exchange Monthly Report shows that the total trading volume across the 12 tracked cryptocurrency exchanges amounted to $4.50 trillion, with Binance holding a 36.23% market share. Overall derivatives trading volume was 5.38 times that of spot trading, and the combined proof-of-reserves across eight exchanges totaled $220.07 billion. The report also notes that Coinbase surpassed Binance in BTC spot order book depth within ±2%, becoming the exchange with the deepest liquidity; for ETH spot liquidity, Binance remains the leader. On the regulatory front, Binance is advancing its MiCA authorization application in Greece, while Gemini completed its withdrawal from the UK, EEA, and Australian markets on April 6.
Solv Protocol has announced the migration of over $700 million in tokenized Bitcoin assets to Chainlink's cross-chain protocol CCIP, and will gradually phase out LayerZero's bridging support across multiple chains. The migration involves core assets such as SolvBTC and xSolvBTC. Solv stated that the decision is based on the latest security reviews and recent cross-chain security incidents, and CCIP will become its standard cross-chain infrastructure. This move follows Kelp DAO's migration of approximately $290 million in assets to Chainlink, further strengthening the trend of "cross-chain infrastructure shifting toward security-first migration." (CoinDesk)
According to The Block, BNY announced the expansion of its crypto custody business into the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) in the UAE through partnerships with Finstreet and the ADI Foundation, offering institutional clients crypto-asset custody services. Initially, the service will support custody for BTC and ETH. The three parties will subsequently explore extending these services to the ADI Foundation’s underlying blockchain infrastructure and gradually expand to stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and other regulated digital instruments.
According to CoinDesk, BNY Mellon—the world’s largest custodian bank, with $59 trillion in assets under custody—has announced a partnership with Finstreet and the ADI Foundation to launch digital asset custody services in the UAE, operating under the regulatory framework of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). Initially, the service will focus on custody for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with plans to later expand to stablecoins and tokenized assets.
: Arthur Hayes stated at the Consensus 2026 conference that the crypto industry is not reliant on regulation for development. The core factors affecting Bitcoin's price are only technological reliability and fiat liquidity, with the latter being the true driving force.He pointed out that from the quantitative easing of the Obama era, the fiscal stimulus during Trump's first term, to the Biden administration releasing reverse repo liquidity by replacing long-term bonds with short-term debt, each round of monetary expansion has been highly correlated with Bitcoin's rise. Arthur Hayes believes that although the Trump administration has pushed forward multiple crypto regulatory bills, Bitcoin has still fallen by about 25% over the past approximately 18 months, indicating that positive regulatory developments do not directly drive price increases.He also stated that the Trump family's previous experiences with debanking, asset freezes, and lawsuits may make them more appreciative of Bitcoin's value as an asset free from state control. Arthur Hayes said that if Bitcoin eventually evolves into a common financial product on bank balance sheets, it will lose its original significance.
According to Bitcoin News, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil reportedly stated that the German government plans to tax Bitcoin and crypto assets differently from current rules—potentially eliminating the existing policy that exempts holdings held for over one year from taxation—and instead aligning their tax treatment more closely with that of equity assets. These proposed adjustments have already drawn criticism from some legal scholars, who argue that imposing a stricter tax regime specifically on Bitcoin may violate Germany’s constitutional principle of equal protection. Previously, Austria abolished a similar long-term holding exemption policy.
according to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, the global market performance is generally stable, but inflationary pressures and policy divergences are rising simultaneously. The S&P 500 topped the 7,200 mark for the first time. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but showed major internal divisions. Compounded by volatile oil prices due to supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations of "stagflation" have intensified. Against this backdrop, the crypto market remains in a consolidation pattern, with BTC largely flat and ETH experiencing a slight pullback. ETF fund flows are diverging, and market sentiment remains cautious.At the industry level, the CLARITY Act has clarified the boundaries for stablecoin yields, further promoting a clearer regulatory framework. EURC is seeing rapid growth in Spanish retail payment scenarios, indicating that localized stablecoin applications are coming to market. The Solana ecosystem is advancing its post-quantum signature scheme, Falcon, reflecting the industry's forward-looking layout for long-term security. In terms of investment and financing, 15 deals were completed this week, with a total volume of $167 million, representing a 205% increase week-over-week. The infrastructure track continues to dominate. Among these, Four Pillars completed a Series A funding round to strengthen institutional-grade research and infrastructure capabilities. Belo secured $14 million in a funding round led by Tether, accelerating the expansion of its stablecoin payment network in Latin America. Overall, capital continues to concentrate towards infrastructure and cross-asset platforms, driving the industry's accelerated evolution towards institutionalization and multi-asset integration.
: CME Group has announced the launch of cash-settled Bitcoin Volatility Futures, scheduled to go live on June 1st (pending regulatory approval).Based on the 30-day Implied Volatility Index (BVX), this product allows traders to trade or hedge Bitcoin volatility without speculating on the direction of price movements.The new contract is expected to carry the ticker symbol BVI, with a contract multiplier of $500 x the index value, aiming to provide the market with a more refined risk management tool.
According to FinanceFeeds, cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recently recorded strong inflows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw single-day net inflows exceeding $600 million, reflecting sustained institutional demand for allocating digital assets via regulated investment vehicles. Specifically, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to dominate, posting approximately $284 million in single-day net inflows and remaining the primary vehicle for institutional Bitcoin allocation. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund also contributed significantly to inflows, helping push total ETF demand above $600 million. Inflows are concentrated among a few major issuers, underscoring the importance of liquidity, scale, and brand trust in attracting institutional capital—BlackRock and Fidelity products have consistently accounted for the majority of total ETF inflows since launch.
Coinbase Australia has launched a dedicated support service for Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSF), providing Australian trustees with a compliant and secure digital asset investment solution to help incorporate crypto assets like Bitcoin into retirement portfolios.According to Coinbase's official blog, the service leverages its recently obtained Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) and local team capabilities, offering entity verification processes tailored to Australian fund structures, downloadable audit reports compliant with local accounting standards, and institutional-grade security measures.Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows there are currently over 653,000 SMSFs in Australia, managing assets worth A$1.05 trillion and serving more than 1.2 million members. Coinbase stated that SMSFs are among the few retirement structures globally that allow individuals to directly manage digital assets, becoming a key gateway for investors to include cryptocurrencies in their long-term retirement strategies. (The Block)
According to CoinDesk, Amy Oldenburg, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas that U.S. banks may hold bitcoin on their balance sheets in the future—but the timeline remains uncertain due to guidance from the Federal Reserve, the Basel Accords, and global regulatory requirements. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s recently launched MSBT—the first bank-issued bitcoin ETP—drew over $100 million in inflows within its first six days of listing, all sourced exclusively from self-directed investment channels and not yet made available to financial advisors. Oldenburg noted that slow adoption by the advisor channel stems primarily from an education gap; the bank has initiated internal training programs to address this and is applying for a digital trust charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to support direct custody of crypto assets and spot crypto trading services.
: Yunfeng Financial has announced the completion of a strategic investment in cross-border payment service provider WooshPay, with the specific amount undisclosed. WooshPay is a financial infrastructure platform regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department. Yunfeng Financial stated that this investment aims to expand the digital payment market and integrate its digital asset infrastructure platform AlphaToken, advancing "AI+Web3" asset tokenization and compliant settlement-related businesses. According to further disclosure, Yunfeng Financial has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset trading services, supporting users in trading digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum on its platform.
Odaily Odaily News, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, stated that Bitcoin's return to the $100,000 mark may not require a new market narrative to drive it; narratives will naturally form after the price increases. He pointed out that the current market focus has shifted to areas such as AI, putting relative pressure on Bitcoin's short-term performance. However, from a mathematical and statistical perspective, the current price range still holds accumulation value.Data shows that Bitcoin has not been above the $100,000 mark for nearly five months. The price has recovered from a low of around $60,000 in February this year to approximately $78,000, with a gain of about 14.49% over the past 30 days. The market is broadly focused on potential catalysts such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, regulatory progress, and capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, some argue that even if the U.S. CLARITY Act is implemented, its direct impact on Bitcoin's price will be limited. (Cointelegraph)