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Project Overview
Basis is a stable cryptocurrency protocol with an algorithmic central bank designed to remove volatility. It is designed to keep prices stable by algorithmically adjusting the supply, similar to how central banks buy and sell fiscal debt to stabilize purchasing power. When demand is increasing, the blockchain will create more Basis, with the expanded supply designed to bring the Basis price back down. Conversely, when demand is decreasing, the blockchain will buy back Basis, with the contracted supply designed to restore the Basis price. Following intervention by the U.S. SEC, Basis was shut down in December 2018.
Event-related news
Analyst: Bitcoin Has Fallen Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for Over 9 Months, Bear Market Characteristics Have Not Yet Faded
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Late Bottoming Phase, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure and ETF Net Outflows Have Not Yet Eased
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.
Eric Balchunas: SPYM's Expense Ratio is 2 Basis Points, VOO Did Not Appear on the Relevant List
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on platform X, expressing some surprise that VOO did not appear on the list. He noted that "SPYM & Chill" doesn't have the same ring to it, but he will make do. SPYM's expense ratio is 2 basis points; even the government is focused on costs.
Analyst: BTC Still Holding Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, Bottom Structure May Be Forming
: Analyst Murphy posted on X platform, stating that based on the relationship between the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP)" and price action, Bitcoin may currently be in the formation stage of a bottom structure.Murphy pointed out that previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by BTC breaking through and trading around the 1-3m_RP cost basis line, but the patterns differed across cycles: In 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around this cost basis line for an extended period; in 2019-2020, it directly triggered a mini bull run after the breakout; in 2022-2023, it experienced a second retest to confirm support before rebounding again.Murphy stated that since BTC broke through this cost basis line on April 15, it has continued to trade above it. Regarding future trends, he believes the focus is not on predicting specific scenarios, but rather on preparing position and trading response plans for different market situations in advance.
Analysis: Tripartite Signal Convergence—On-Chain Data, Futures, and Options—Suggests BTC May Rally to $85,000
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.
Related news
CME FedWatch Shows Probability of Fed 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike in September Rises to 61.4%
Odaily Odaily News The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing the target federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, is 61.4%, up from 50.6% a month ago. The expectation for a 50-basis-point rate hike has dropped to 0% from 25% a week ago, and the probability of a rate cut is 0%. On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the committee has only a single 2% inflation target and does not have a soft or implicit soft target for inflation. In prediction markets, traders on Kalshi see a 53% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September and a 44% probability of no change, with related trading volume exceeding $1.36 million. On Polymarket, related trading volume exceeds $8 million, with participants pricing in a 52% probability of a rate hike and a 46% probability of no change.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate Steady, Three Officials Favored a 25 Basis Point Hike
Odaily News The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 on July 29 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting that economic growth remains solid and inflation remains above the 2% target. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, each favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike at this meeting. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously decided to maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% effective July 30, and the primary credit rate at 3.75%. The FOMC instructed the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to continue conducting standing overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operations at 3.75% and overnight reverse repo operations at 3.5%, with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
Morgan Stanley: AI Applications Expected to Boost Corporate Profit Margins by Approximately 100 Basis Points
Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that American companies actively integrating AI capabilities into their businesses are expected to demonstrate stronger profitability in the current earnings season. His team believes that companies where AI is a core investment thesis and which possess neutral to strong pricing power will see the most significant margin improvements. They project that with the continued advancement of AI applications, the net profit margins of related companies could increase by a cumulative total of approximately 100 basis points by 2027. (BloomBerg)
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis Drops Below Long-Term Holders, Triggering Bear Market End Signal
According to analysis shared by blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant on July 18, Bitcoin short-term holders’ cost basis has fallen below the adjusted long-term holders’ cost basis, triggering a “bear market end” signal. This signal uses a 3-day confirmation window to compare the average purchase prices of short-term and long-term holders. The analysis indicates that short-term holders refer to investors holding Bitcoin for less than 6 months, while long-term holders refer to those holding for more than 6 months. The short-term holders' cost basis has dropped from $112,500 to $69,000, reflecting that Bitcoin purchased over the past 6 months is changing hands at lower prices. The analysis states that the adjusted long-term holders’ cost basis excludes Bitcoin held for more than 7 years to reduce the impact of dormant supply. The current crossover is described as a shift in holding structure, pointing to the late-stage of a bear market, but it does not equate to confirming a market bottom or the start of a new bull market. The analysis also suggests that if the short-term holders’ cost basis rises back above the adjusted long-term holders’ cost basis, it would align with bull market confirmation signals observed in previous cycles. Until then, this signal merely indicates that the Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end.
Analyst: Bitcoin Has Fallen Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for Over 9 Months, Bear Market Characteristics Have Not Yet Faded
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Late Bottoming Phase, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure and ETF Net Outflows Have Not Yet Eased
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.