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Project Overview
Basis is a stable cryptocurrency protocol with an algorithmic central bank designed to remove volatility. It is designed to keep prices stable by algorithmically adjusting the supply, similar to how central banks buy and sell fiscal debt to stabilize purchasing power. When demand is increasing, the blockchain will create more Basis, with the expanded supply designed to bring the Basis price back down. Conversely, when demand is decreasing, the blockchain will buy back Basis, with the contracted supply designed to restore the Basis price. Following intervention by the U.S. SEC, Basis was shut down in December 2018.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
Study: US Taxpayer Virtual Currency Reporting Rate Only 32% to 56%, IRS New Rule 1099-DA Accelerates Compliance Tightening
According to US CNBC, the latest study published in the academic journal "Review of Accounting Studies" shows that among U.S. taxpayers holding virtual currency, the proportion actually reporting transactions to the federal government is only 32% to 56%. As the IRS mandates intermediaries to submit the virtual currency tax form "Form 1099-DA" starting from 2025, discrepancies between industry reports and taxpayer filings will be more easily identified by authorities. In the initial year, this form only requires reporting gross proceeds, while the reporting obligation for acquisition cost (Cost Basis) will be formally included starting from 2026.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Attempting to Reclaim Active Supply Cost Basis, ~$70,400 Becomes Key Level
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently attempting to reclaim the "Active Supply Cost Basis" level.Darkfost noted that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once within the past 7 years. By excluding long-dormant Bitcoin, a more accurate average cost basis that aligns with the current market structure can be obtained, with its Realized Price standing at approximately $70,400.He stated that the last time Bitcoin successfully reclaimed this level was in early April, before the market fell back below this zone again in early June, with sellers reasserting dominance.Darkfost said that if BTC can sustain its position above the active supply cost basis this time, it could signal the market is forming a longer-term uptrend, rather than the brief breakout that lasted only about two months previously.This metric is commonly used by the market to observe changes in long-term holder costs and Bitcoin market cycle status. Whether BTC can firmly hold near the $70,400 level will become a key indicator for future bullish and bearish forces.
Analyst: ETH Whales' Average Cost Basis Concentrated Between $1,900 and $2,400
Murphy stated on the X platform that a statistical analysis of entities holding more than 100 ETH reveals that the average cost basis for cohorts holding 100–1,000 ETH, 1,000–10,000 ETH, 10,000–100,000 ETH, and over 100,000 ETH is approximately $1,900, $2,000, $2,100, and $2,400, respectively. This indicates that the average holding cost for high-net-worth individuals and whale entities is mainly concentrated in the $1,900–$2,400 range.Murphy noted that when the ETH price falls below the average holding cost of high-net-worth individuals and whale entities, one could begin dollar-cost averaging, and stop once the price returns to the cost band. Combined with the LTH-NUPL indicator, this strategy has achieved a win rate of nearly 99.99% over the past 10 years.
Glassnode Warns of Market Liquidity Pressure: BTC Three-Month Futures Basis Hits Historically Rare Low
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
Analyst: Bitcoin Has Fallen Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for Over 9 Months, Bear Market Characteristics Have Not Yet Faded
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Late Bottoming Phase, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure and ETF Net Outflows Have Not Yet Eased
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.
Related news
Tom Lee: Core PCE Could Fall 100 Basis Points Without Rate Hikes
Tom Lee posted on X platform, agreeing with Mark Zandi's view that the Federal Reserve does not need to immediately choose between two options and can wait. Goldman Sachs estimates that the supply shock driving core PCE higher currently stands at 1.75 percentage points and will weaken by 100 basis points to 0.75 percentage points by early 2027; without rate hikes, core PCE will fall by 100 basis points. He stated that when the market is positioned for bearish news, the market may rise after the event occurs.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
China-U.S. Talks on Tariff Reduction Framework; ECB Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points
The Ministry of Commerce revealed that China and the United States are currently negotiating a $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction framework. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the US August PPI annual rate rose to 5.4%, and markets expect a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
JPMorgan: Fed to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in December, AI Shortage Drives Next Investment Cycle
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 1, 2026 research report projects a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. U.S. GDP growth is forecast at 2.0% in 2026, with core PCE inflation holding steady at 3.5% and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1%. The two-year Treasury yield may reach 4.30% by year-end, while the ten-year yield could rise to 4.85%, with the yield curve expected to continue steepening. The U.S. Dollar Index is at a critical juncture, and an anticipated rate hike could push it beyond its current range.
CME FedWatch: 66% Probability of 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike in September
Odaily News According to CME FedWatch tool data, as of 11:40 AM ET on August 31, there is a 66% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its September meeting.The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since 2022 to address rising inflation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated at a recent Jackson Hole symposium that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index has risen 3.7% over the past 12 months and 4.1% over the past six months, both above the 2% target, emphasizing that controlling prices should be the current top priority.Barclays expects the Fed to raise rates twice more this year, in September and December, for a cumulative increase of 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range 50 basis points higher than current levels. (Forbes Digital Assets)
Arthur Hayes: Basis trading shows signs of resurgence, ENA may benefit
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his OTC brokers have begun receiving inquiries regarding USD borrowing demand. While current interest rates remain at low levels, he believes this may indicate a resurgence in basis trading, and added that the Ethena-related token ENA could benefit as a result.