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UBS: SK Hynix 1.66x P/B Ratio Implies ROE Less Than 20%, Actually Can Earn 40%
According to TechFlow Research, UBS pointed out in its research report on July 29 that SK Hynix's stock price has fallen 52% from its high on June 22, with a current price-to-book ratio of only 1.66x, implying a long-term ROE of 18.9%. However, UBS predicts the average ROE from 2027 to 2031 will reach 40.2%, a difference of 21 percentage points between the two. DRAM bit demand growth is expected to increase from 22% in 2026 to 36% in 2027, HBM capacity will increase from 230,000 wafers/month at the end of 2026 to 270,000 wafers/month at the end of 2027, and SK Hynix will maintain a 48% shipment share in the HBM industry in 2026. UBS believes the market valuation downward revision lacks basis, AI agents are driving accelerated memory demand, 10 long-term agreements have been signed, and although LTAs suppress ASP in the short term, they benefit profit margins in the long term. UBS maintains a Buy rating, lowering the target price from 3.2 million Korean won to 3 million Korean won, expects to launch a share buyback of about 12 trillion Korean won in the second half of 2026, and will use 50% of free cash flow for shareholder returns in the long term.
Serenity: Small Wafer Allocation Could Support Hundreds of Millions in Gross Profit; CPO Volume Expansion May Further Unlock Growth Potential
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.
Citrini Raises DRAM Price Forecast: Q3 Average Price May Rise 21% QoQ, Higher Than TrendForce Forecast
Citrini analyst Jukan stated in a post that, according to the latest channel research, the global DRAM market average selling price (ASP) for the third quarter is expected to rise 21% quarter-over-quarter. This expectation is higher than TrendForce's previous forecast of a 13% to 18% increase in traditional DRAM prices and an overall increase of 8% to 13% including HBM.
Analysts lower SK Hynix Q2 earnings expectations but anticipate sustained long-term profit growth
Odaily Odaily News: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion Korean won, up 61% quarter-on-quarter and 556% year-on-year, which is 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion Korean won.The analyst stated that the lowered expectations are mainly due to SK Hynix's higher proportion of HBM sales compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and the stabilization of ASP (Average Selling Price) driven by Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs). The forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the comprehensive DRAM ASP in Q2 2026 has been lowered to 28.9%, down from the previous 50.0%; the growth rate for commodity DRAM ASP has been reduced to 34.2%, down from the previous 60.6%. With the mass production of HBM4 officially commencing in the third quarter of 2026, the comprehensive ASP growth rate is expected to return to an average market level of approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter.However, the analyst believes this adjustment does not signal a downturn for the industry. The recent revision is a more realistic reflection of the 3 to 5-year LTA structure and is expected to lead to more stable long-term profit growth. The year-on-year operating profit growth rates for the fiscal years 2026 through 2028 are projected to be 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.
OKX Star: Will Donate No Less Than 1 BTC to the First "One-Person Company" Achieving an Annual Income of $1 Million on OKX.AI
: OKX founder and CEO Star stated in a post on X that the first "one-person company" (OPC) to achieve an annual revenue of $1 million on OKX.AI will receive a personal donation of no less than 1 BTC. Star noted that every major technological revolution gives rise to a new generation of entrepreneurs and believes that the AI era will create millions of "one-person companies."It is reported that the OKX.AI Genesis Hackathon has been launched, allowing developers to build Agent Service Providers (ASP) on the OKX.AI platform. The event features a total prize pool of $100,000, aimed at encouraging AI Agent projects with real demand scenarios and practical use value, driving the implementation of the Agent economy.
OKX Officially Launches OKX.AI Genesis Hackathon
: According to official sources, OKX has announced the official launch of the OKX.AI Genesis Hackathon, recruiting the first batch of Agent Service Providers (ASP) from global AI developers. The total prize pool for this hackathon is $100,000, with the highest single prize being 10,000 USDT. From now until 8:00 on July 18 (UTC+8), participants can submit their projects through the OKX.AI official website and post introduction threads on the X platform.It is reported that OKX.AI is an economic system specifically designed for Agents, where users and Agents can discover and utilize professional services provided by ASPs.
Related news
UBS: SK Hynix 1.66x P/B Ratio Implies ROE Less Than 20%, Actually Can Earn 40%
According to TechFlow Research, UBS pointed out in its research report on July 29 that SK Hynix's stock price has fallen 52% from its high on June 22, with a current price-to-book ratio of only 1.66x, implying a long-term ROE of 18.9%. However, UBS predicts the average ROE from 2027 to 2031 will reach 40.2%, a difference of 21 percentage points between the two. DRAM bit demand growth is expected to increase from 22% in 2026 to 36% in 2027, HBM capacity will increase from 230,000 wafers/month at the end of 2026 to 270,000 wafers/month at the end of 2027, and SK Hynix will maintain a 48% shipment share in the HBM industry in 2026. UBS believes the market valuation downward revision lacks basis, AI agents are driving accelerated memory demand, 10 long-term agreements have been signed, and although LTAs suppress ASP in the short term, they benefit profit margins in the long term. UBS maintains a Buy rating, lowering the target price from 3.2 million Korean won to 3 million Korean won, expects to launch a share buyback of about 12 trillion Korean won in the second half of 2026, and will use 50% of free cash flow for shareholder returns in the long term.
DRAM Price Forecast Revised Upward: Average Selling Price Expected to Rise 21% QoQ in Q3, Exceeding TrendForce's Projections
Odaily According to the latest industry research, the global DRAM market's average selling price (ASP) for the third quarter is expected to rise 21% quarter-over-quarter. This forecast surpasses TrendForce's earlier predictions of a 13% to 18% increase for conventional DRAM and an 8% to 13% rise overall, including HBM.Analysts attribute the Q3 DRAM price increase to several factors: server DRAM prices are expected to rise 20% to 30% QoQ; demand for high-speed LPDDR5 remains strong; the DDR5 and DDR4 spot markets are heating up, with prices further increasing month-over-month in July; HBM4 orders are increasing; long-term agreement (LTA) coverage is below 50%, leading more spot and non-LTA orders to drive price increases; and urgent procurement by some OEMs is pushing DRAM and NAND price increases beyond 20%.The market had previously worried that memory chip manufacturers' Q3 performance might fall short of expectations. However, the latest contract price checks show that DRAM price momentum is stronger than market consensus. At the same time, recent positive guidance from TSMC and ASML has further reinforced market expectations of an upward trend in the storage industry's cyclical prosperity. (Barrons)
Citrini Raises DRAM Price Forecast: Q3 Average Price May Rise 21% QoQ, Higher Than TrendForce Forecast
Citrini analyst Jukan stated in a post that, according to the latest channel research, the global DRAM market average selling price (ASP) for the third quarter is expected to rise 21% quarter-over-quarter. This expectation is higher than TrendForce's previous forecast of a 13% to 18% increase in traditional DRAM prices and an overall increase of 8% to 13% including HBM.
Serenity: Small Wafer Allocation Could Support Hundreds of Millions in Gross Profit; CPO Volume Expansion May Further Unlock Growth Potential
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.
Analysts lower SK Hynix Q2 earnings expectations but anticipate sustained long-term profit growth
Odaily Odaily News: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion Korean won, up 61% quarter-on-quarter and 556% year-on-year, which is 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion Korean won.The analyst stated that the lowered expectations are mainly due to SK Hynix's higher proportion of HBM sales compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and the stabilization of ASP (Average Selling Price) driven by Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs). The forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the comprehensive DRAM ASP in Q2 2026 has been lowered to 28.9%, down from the previous 50.0%; the growth rate for commodity DRAM ASP has been reduced to 34.2%, down from the previous 60.6%. With the mass production of HBM4 officially commencing in the third quarter of 2026, the comprehensive ASP growth rate is expected to return to an average market level of approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter.However, the analyst believes this adjustment does not signal a downturn for the industry. The recent revision is a more realistic reflection of the 3 to 5-year LTA structure and is expected to lead to more stable long-term profit growth. The year-on-year operating profit growth rates for the fiscal years 2026 through 2028 are projected to be 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.
Bernstein: iPhone Share Continues to Expand But China Region Drags, ASP Ends Six Consecutive Increases
According to Chaoxiang Research, Bernstein's July 8 Apple tracking report shows that iPhone May shipments were YoY +2%, with share continuing to expand and strong performance in the US, Japan, and emerging markets; however, China region revenue was YoY -15.5%, primarily due to weakened 618 promotion intensity and changes in subsidy thresholds. iPhone ASP was YoY -1.2%, ending six consecutive months of growth; the e series sales share rose to 11%, dragging down the average price. FQ3 first two months' data were slightly below the historical seasonal average. TSMC N3P shipments were dragged down by weak iPhone 17e and reduced 618 discounts, but AI demand will fill the gap. iPhone DRAM content was YoY +27% to 9.6GB, with 8GB+ models accounting for 95%. Bernstein maintains an Apple Outperform rating, with a target price of $350.