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Analyst: CXMT Surges on Debut, but Still Faces Uphill Battle to Alter Global DRAM Landscape
a Milk Road AI analyst posted an analysis on X regarding the surge in CXMT's (ChangXin Memory Technologies) stock price. The analyst noted that in the past year, CXMT's global DRAM market share has risen from less than 4% to approximately 7.7%-8%. In the first quarter of this year, its revenue surged 719% year-over-year to 50.8 billion RMB. This growth is primarily attributed to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more production capacity towards AI server memory (especially HBM), creating a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, which CXMT has capitalized on to fill the demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.However, CXMT's current production capacity remains far from sufficient to meet global demand. Its monthly wafer capacity is approximately 290,000 to 320,000 wafers, significantly lower than Samsung's roughly 630,000 wafers and SK Hynix's approximately 500,000 wafers. Additionally, US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also constraining CXMT's pace of further expansion.The analyst believes that CXMT will find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term and therefore will not change the supply-demand dynamics of AI memory. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will continue to maintain their advantages in high-margin products such as HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, suggesting that the global memory shortage cycle may persist.
Citrini Analyst: AI Era May Alter Storage Cycle Logic, Chip Stock Decline Does Not Necessarily Mean Industry Collapse
Citrini analyst Jukan posted an analysis pointing out that the recent decline in memory chip stocks, besides being affected by leveraged fund liquidations, may also indicate the market is pricing in pressure from future supply expansion in advance. Even if the global memory shortage continues until 2027, most research institutions and industry observers still expect supply-demand tightness to begin easing in 2028. As memory manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announce large-scale fab expansion plans, the market may have already started to reflect in advance the impact of new capacity release after 2028. There is a common rule in the traditional memory industry: memory stock prices usually reflect memory price peaks about two quarters in advance, but in the new AI-driven cycle, the market might price in future supply-demand changes even earlier, such as three or even four quarters in advance. The AI era may bring new changes; the logic of "price cuts leading to revenue decline" in traditional memory cycles may not fully apply to the AI infrastructure market. Jukan stated that the key difference lies in the fact that in the AI era, "demand growth driven by price declines" may buffer the impact of the memory price cycle downturn. If this logic holds, future earnings volatility for memory companies may be lower than in past cycles, and may also support higher valuation levels.
Analyst: Bitcoin Bounce Fails to Alter Bearish Structure, A Return Above $80,000 Needed for Trend Reversal
Despite Bitcoin bouncing after falling below $60,000, several market analysts believe this is more likely a technical correction following an oversold condition rather than the start of a new bull market.Analysts at HEX Trust stated that the market has entered an oversold territory. If US inflation data cools and the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs slows down, Bitcoin could see further upside. However, a true trend reversal depends on the market’s ability to firmly reclaim the $79,000 to $80,000 range. Until then, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective rally within a bear market.Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, is relatively more optimistic. He believes that if Bitcoin can rebound to around $68,000, it could be considered a valid recovery from the downtrend observed between May 11 and June 5.Data shows that the net cumulative outflow from the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks has exceeded $5 billion. On Monday alone, another $91 million flowed out. Analysts point out that ETF fund flows remain one of the key factors determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.Additionally, the market is closely watching US inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday. If the inflation figure comes in lower than expected, it could help ease market concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market currently expects the US inflation rate for May to remain above 4%, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. (CoinDesk)
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Analyst: CXMT Surges on Debut, but Still Faces Uphill Battle to Alter Global DRAM Landscape
a Milk Road AI analyst posted an analysis on X regarding the surge in CXMT's (ChangXin Memory Technologies) stock price. The analyst noted that in the past year, CXMT's global DRAM market share has risen from less than 4% to approximately 7.7%-8%. In the first quarter of this year, its revenue surged 719% year-over-year to 50.8 billion RMB. This growth is primarily attributed to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more production capacity towards AI server memory (especially HBM), creating a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, which CXMT has capitalized on to fill the demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.However, CXMT's current production capacity remains far from sufficient to meet global demand. Its monthly wafer capacity is approximately 290,000 to 320,000 wafers, significantly lower than Samsung's roughly 630,000 wafers and SK Hynix's approximately 500,000 wafers. Additionally, US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also constraining CXMT's pace of further expansion.The analyst believes that CXMT will find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term and therefore will not change the supply-demand dynamics of AI memory. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will continue to maintain their advantages in high-margin products such as HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, suggesting that the global memory shortage cycle may persist.
Citrini Analyst: AI Era May Alter Storage Cycle Logic, Chip Stock Decline Does Not Necessarily Mean Industry Collapse
Citrini analyst Jukan posted an analysis pointing out that the recent decline in memory chip stocks, besides being affected by leveraged fund liquidations, may also indicate the market is pricing in pressure from future supply expansion in advance. Even if the global memory shortage continues until 2027, most research institutions and industry observers still expect supply-demand tightness to begin easing in 2028. As memory manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announce large-scale fab expansion plans, the market may have already started to reflect in advance the impact of new capacity release after 2028. There is a common rule in the traditional memory industry: memory stock prices usually reflect memory price peaks about two quarters in advance, but in the new AI-driven cycle, the market might price in future supply-demand changes even earlier, such as three or even four quarters in advance. The AI era may bring new changes; the logic of "price cuts leading to revenue decline" in traditional memory cycles may not fully apply to the AI infrastructure market. Jukan stated that the key difference lies in the fact that in the AI era, "demand growth driven by price declines" may buffer the impact of the memory price cycle downturn. If this logic holds, future earnings volatility for memory companies may be lower than in past cycles, and may also support higher valuation levels.
Analyst: Bitcoin Bounce Fails to Alter Bearish Structure, A Return Above $80,000 Needed for Trend Reversal
Despite Bitcoin bouncing after falling below $60,000, several market analysts believe this is more likely a technical correction following an oversold condition rather than the start of a new bull market.Analysts at HEX Trust stated that the market has entered an oversold territory. If US inflation data cools and the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs slows down, Bitcoin could see further upside. However, a true trend reversal depends on the market’s ability to firmly reclaim the $79,000 to $80,000 range. Until then, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective rally within a bear market.Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, is relatively more optimistic. He believes that if Bitcoin can rebound to around $68,000, it could be considered a valid recovery from the downtrend observed between May 11 and June 5.Data shows that the net cumulative outflow from the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks has exceeded $5 billion. On Monday alone, another $91 million flowed out. Analysts point out that ETF fund flows remain one of the key factors determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.Additionally, the market is closely watching US inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday. If the inflation figure comes in lower than expected, it could help ease market concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market currently expects the US inflation rate for May to remain above 4%, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. (CoinDesk)
Standard Chartered: rsETH Security Incident Does Not Alter RWA Growth Thesis, Maintaining $2 Trillion Market Size Forecast
Standard Chartered Bank's latest report indicates that while the theft of KelpDAO's rsETH has severely impacted the DeFi ecosystem, it is insufficient to change the long-term growth trend of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization. The bank maintains its forecast that the RWA tokenization market will grow from $35 billion in October 2025 to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, with the core drivers remaining the continued expansion of the DeFi banking system and stablecoin liquidity.Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that this incident is more like DeFi being "bent, not broken," and could even serve as a significant turning point for the industry to move towards a more resilient structure. (The Block)