Morgan Stanley: SpaceX's $100 Billion Base Plan Features 10 Launch Pads, Target Price Upside 118%

According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley report dated August 25, 2026, indicates that SpaceX has announced a $100 billion Starbase project in Louisiana, planning five launch complexes totaling 10 launch pads, with construction set to begin in 2027 and the maiden flight scheduled for 2029. SpaceX has currently planned a total of 15 launch pads. Morgan Stanley believes the market has not fully appreciated the scale of Starship; even without including the new base, projected launches through 2040 would only require eight launch pads to sustain operations. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating with a $300 price target, offering 118% upside from the current $137. Louisiana has provided a substantial incentive package, selected for four key reasons: access to polar orbits, natural gas supply, political hedging, and government incentives. With a payload capacity exceeding five times that of Falcon 9 and full reusability, Morgan Stanley projects launch costs will fall to $500/kg by 2030 and drop below $200/kg by 2035. In Morgan Stanley's sum-of-the-parts valuation, the Enterprise AI segment carries a value of $165. The current stock price implies an extremely low single-digit multiple for this business line, while the orbital AI call option is priced near zero. SpaceX has completed its final Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida, with all future Starlink missions transferring entirely to Starship. Each launch's downlink capacity is Falcon