JPMorgan: AI Inference Extends Server Cycle, Rising Memory Prices Suppress PC Demand

According to TechFlow Research, JPMorgan's July 15 report significantly raised server shipment expectations, with the 2026 growth rate revised up from 15% to 22%, and 2027 from 8% to 25%. AI inference is the core driver, as enterprises deploying AI models require a large number of inference servers. JPMorgan estimates that by 2028, server CPU shipments will increase from 26 million to 68 million units, of which Agentic AI-related demand accounts for 53 million units. The PC side is suppressed by rising memory prices; brands are raising prices to maintain gross margins, at the cost of sales volume. 2026 PC shipments are expected to decline by 8%, with consumer PCs down 14%. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint; CPU, substrates, memory, PCB, power devices, every segment is tight. In terms of US stocks, AI server vendors such as Dell Technologies, HPE, and Super Micro Computer continue to benefit; in the components sector, Arista Networks, Amphenol, Corning, Lumentum, Micron Technology, etc. benefit from the structural trend of value shifting towards components. JPMorgan recommends: server components sector is superior to contract manufacturing, avoid PC overall.