Goldman Sachs: China's semiconductor volume self-sufficiency rate rises to 70%, $82 billion capital expenditure target for 2030

According to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs' fourth annual report in its CHIPS Act series, released on August 24, indicates that by June 2026, China's semiconductor IC self-sufficiency rate will reach 70%, nearly double the 38% recorded in January 2010. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's semiconductor capital expenditure to $82 billion in 2030, up 79% from previous estimates. The report covers CXMT, China's leading DRAM manufacturer, for the first time, assigning a Buy rating with a target price of ¥129. Goldman Sachs projects that the supply-demand gap for China's advanced logic processes at 7nm and below will narrow from 92% in 2025 to 34% by 2035, while wafer demand for AI servers will grow at a CAGR of 42% over the same period. Under the baseline scenario, China's AI chip market is projected to reach $678 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of 69% from 2025 to 2030; the DRAM market will reach $257 billion by 2028, growing at a 50% CAGR, with HBM expanding at an 188% CAGR. China's WFE spending will increase by 13%, 20%, and 15% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. The revenue share of domestic equipment manufacturers in China's WFE market will rise from 31% to 38%. Despite the rising localization rate, global equipment suppliers remain key beneficiaries of China's capacity expansion in advanced processes. Goldman Sachs recommends Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Onto Innovation.