TD Cowen: The Crypto Bill “Clarity for Digital Tokens Act” Faces Five Major Obstacles, Passage Outlook Uncertain

According to The Block, Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director of the Washington Research Group at investment bank TD Cowen, stated that stablecoin yield issues are not the sole obstacle to the passage of the Clarity Act—and cited the following five additional hurdles: 1. A severe shortage of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioners: only Chairman Michael Selig remains in office, and the process to appoint new commissioners could take several months, while the bill must complete its review by the end of July; 2. Complex regulatory questions surrounding prediction markets—including concerns about insider trading and potential conflicts of interest involving the Trump family—which may prompt Democratic lawmakers to withdraw their support via related amendments; 3. Ongoing controversy surrounding World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency project affiliated with the Trump family, increasing political resistance from Democrats toward supporting the bill; 4. Reports indicating Iran is discussing requiring vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to pay tolls in cryptocurrency—a development that could trigger contentious anti-money laundering (AML) amendments, potentially serving as a “poison pill” for the bill; 5. Risk that the Credit Card Competition Act could be attached to the Clarity Act, jeopardizing the entire bill’s progress. Regarding stablecoin yield issues, Senator Thom Tillis indicated that the Senate Banking Committee will not vote on the bill until as early as May. TD Cowen maintains its assessment that the bill has approximately a one-in-three chance of passing this year, while Galaxy Digital estimates the probability at roughly 50%.