Wintermute Policy Lead: The Clarity Act Has Only a 30% Chance of Passing This Year

According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, Policy Lead at crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the U.S. crypto market structure bill—the Clarity Act—continues to face multiple obstacles in its legislative process, with only about a 30% chance of passage this year. The bill aims to clarify the respective regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets. However, current negotiations are progressing unevenly, and the timeline has been repeatedly delayed. Key resistance stems from traditional banking institutions—particularly over whether stablecoins should be permitted to generate yield—a point of serious disagreement. Related compromise proposals have repeatedly stalled. Moreover, internal divisions among Democrats, as well as issues concerning DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering (AML), further add uncertainty to the legislation. That said, Ron Hammond believes the bill still retains room for advancement; whether it can be enacted this year ultimately hinges on whether critical disagreements can be resolved.