Goldman Sachs: Pro-cyclical Rotation Slowing, Maintains Overweight on Equities for 12 Months but Tactically Shifts to Defensive

According to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs released its Global Opportunity Asset Locator report on September 2, maintaining its core stance of being overweight equities and underweight credit over a 12-month horizon, while taking a tactically neutral view on equities. Global equity markets have been range-bound since June, with AI capex beneficiaries facing selling pressure. The equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq by 16% in June and July, reflecting a significant improvement in market breadth. Goldman Sachs believes that sustained earnings growth should support equities outperforming bonds and credit over the medium term, although returns may decelerate as earnings growth peaks. Furthermore, interest rate volatility, US midterm elections, and geopolitical risks could drive up short-term volatility.