Morgan Stanley: 70% of NVIDIA's FY28 Revenue Guidance Constrained by Supply; Inference Has Become the Largest and Continuously Expanding Data Center Segment

According to Chaohiang Research, JPMorgan's September 2 investor meeting minutes for NVIDIA indicate that NVIDIA is "comfortable" with its guidance for 70% year-over-year growth in FY28, and this guidance is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained; with sufficient supply, the business could grow more than double. Inference has become the largest and expanding segment of the data center business. Eighteen months ago, inference and training each accounted for roughly half, but currently inference exceeds training and will continue to rise. Advanced wafers and memory are the two major supply bottlenecks, and NVIDIA maintains close cooperation with TSMC and the three major memory suppliers. The customer base continues to broaden, with OpenAI and Anthropic currently accounting for approximately 20% of end-user demand, which may approach 25% by FY28; new cloud providers now account for over 50% of AI computing infrastructure. Open-source and closed-source models will coexist, and gross margins for model developers are improving. NVIDIA supports long-term demand through revenue sharing, the PORTS-Pike campus, and a $500 billion private capital financing platform. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating with a price target of $320, based on approximately 20x the expected CY2026 EPS of $15.87.