Bernstein: iPhone Share Continues to Expand But China Region Drags, ASP Ends Six Consecutive Increases

According to Chaoxiang Research, Bernstein's July 8 Apple tracking report shows that iPhone May shipments were YoY +2%, with share continuing to expand and strong performance in the US, Japan, and emerging markets; however, China region revenue was YoY -15.5%, primarily due to weakened 618 promotion intensity and changes in subsidy thresholds. iPhone ASP was YoY -1.2%, ending six consecutive months of growth; the e series sales share rose to 11%, dragging down the average price. FQ3 first two months' data were slightly below the historical seasonal average. TSMC N3P shipments were dragged down by weak iPhone 17e and reduced 618 discounts, but AI demand will fill the gap. iPhone DRAM content was YoY +27% to 9.6GB, with 8GB+ models accounting for 95%. Bernstein maintains an Apple Outperform rating, with a target price of $350.