Delphi Digital

2026-06-09 16:36

Delphi Digital: Only About 12% of Newly Listed Tokens on CEXs Since January Last Year Have Outperformed Their Issuance Price, Reflecting Market Depth Imbalance

Delphi Digital has released its "Token Market Status Report," indicating that the token market in this cycle has been suppressed by multiple structural issues, including token unlocks occurring on a fixed schedule regardless of project performance, protocol revenues failing to effectively flow back to token holders, and airdrops gradually evolving into sources of exit liquidity.The report shows that since January 2025, among all newly listed tokens on major centralized exchanges (CEX), if purchased on the listing day and held to the present, an average investment of $1,000 would have dwindled to approximately $500. The median decline is 82%, with only about 12% of tokens still trading above their issuance price, reflecting a market structure that prioritizes "listing quantity over quality."Regarding tokenomic design, the research points out that across more than 400 unlock events, within a sample of 33, 28 tokens significantly underperformed relative to Bitcoin in the three weeks before and after the unlock, resulting in an average excess loss of approximately 7%. Moreover, most unlocks occur within 30 days, making it difficult for the market to effectively absorb the supply shock.The report also notes that the long-standing industry issue of "missing value accrual" is beginning to change. An increasing number of protocols are starting to use "Fee Switch" mechanisms to return revenue to token holders. For example, Hyperliquid allocates nearly all its fees to buybacks, Uniswap is burning 100 million UNI tokens, Jupiter uses 50% of its fees for buybacks locked for three years, and Aave has passed a DAO-approved weekly buyback plan of $1 million.However, the report emphasizes that fee-based buybacks alone are insufficient to resolve supply pressure. For instance, the scale of buybacks for some projects still cannot offset the selling pressure from token unlocks, leading to a situation where "buybacks only offset inflation but fail to generate net buying pressure."Simultaneously, the structure of institutional capital is shifting. Institutional holdings of Bitcoin-related ETFs like IBIT have grown 62% year-over-year, with advisory channels increasing by 204% and sovereign wealth funds and endowments rising by 228%, while arbitrage-focused hedge funds continue to exit. Long-term capital, including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Mubadala Investment Company, is increasing its allocation.The report concludes that in the next phase, more attractive token assets will simultaneously feature "revenue accrual mechanisms" and "supply release structures linked to protocol performance." However, the current market remains in the early stages of structural repair.

Aave

based

Bitcoin

Company

DAO

DAOMaker

2026-05-14 21:46

Strategy's STRC issuance approaching $28.3 billion cap may slow Bitcoin accumulation

according to a report from Delphi Digital, the authorized issuance cap for Strategy's variable rate Series A perpetual preferred stock (STRC) is approximately $28.3 billion. If this cap is reached without being extended, Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation pace may slow down. On Monday, Strategy purchased 535 Bitcoins for $43 million, with most of the funds for this acquisition raised through the sale of its Class A common stock (MSTR).Currently, Strategy's market net asset value (mNAV) stands at 1.25x. Researchers noted that when the mNAV is low, Strategy uses STRC as its primary accumulation tool; if the mNAV expands, it may acquire Bitcoin through MSTR sales. Strategy holds $2.25 billion in cash reserves, with its next major cash obligation due in September 2027. (Cointelegraph)

Bitcoin

Cointelegraph

Monsterra

StarChain

Strategy

2026-05-13 19:41

Delphi Digital: Strategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Has Entered a Higher-Cost Phase

Delphi Digital stated that Strategy has primarily relied on issuing stocks at high premiums and low-cost convertible bonds over the past years to secure funds for continuously increasing its Bitcoin holdings. However, this financing window is now essentially closed.Delphi points out that common stock financing is currently constrained by the Market-Adjusted Net Asset Value (mNAV), and new convertible bond issuance has also been suspended. STRC has thus become its primary financing channel. Since STRC has a lower repayment priority in the capital structure compared to convertible bonds and preferred shares, it requires a high yield of approximately 11.5% to compensate investors for the impairment risk they bear.Delphi believes that Strategy is currently continuing its Bitcoin accumulation plan by paying higher financing costs, buying time to address the large debt repayments maturing in 2028.

Bitcoin

Higher

Market

StarChain

Strategy

2026-05-12 22:44

Delphi Digital Analyzes Marginal Changes in Strategy’s Bitcoin Financing Model, STRC Becomes Key Expansion Engine but Risks Rise Concurrently

crypto research institution Delphi Digital has released its latest report, "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It," providing a systematic analysis of Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) capital expansion mechanism. It indicates that the company's financing structure is transitioning from a phase of "low-cost accumulation" into one of "diminishing marginal efficiency."The report shows that within the current asset accumulation system centered on Bitcoin, STRC has become the core financing tool for Strategy's continued BTC purchases. Initially, the company relied on a significant premium in MSTR's stock price (with mNAV far exceeding BTC's net asset value) to create a positive cycle where "issuing shares meant increasing holdings." However, as valuations have receded to approximately 1.24 times the base mNAV of enterprise value, the BTC-per-share accretion effect from common stock issuance is approaching a break-even point.Meanwhile, while convertible bonds have played a crucial role historically, they have accumulated a principal of approximately $8.2 billion and face concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting long-term strain on the sustainability of the financing structure.STRC provides Strategy with a continuous source of financing—used to maintain its BTC buying pace—by offering yield-seeking investors an approximately 11.5% annualized monthly dividend. However, this mechanism also introduces ongoing cash flow obligations, meaning that each round of financing simultaneously builds future dividend burdens while increasing BTC assets.The report emphasizes a key risk scenario: if BTC's price remains stagnant and MSTR's premium fails to recover, the "gains from STRC-financed coin purchases" could be progressively offset by "common stock dilution and dividend obligations." Although the company's approximately $2.25 billion cash reserve can cover its roughly $1 billion redemption pressure in 2027, its larger debt and dividend structure in 2028 remains unresolved.Furthermore, STRC's current authorized issuance limit of approximately $28.3 billion serves as a critical constraint. Once this limit is reached, the capacity for new BTC purchases may slow, yet existing dividend obligations will persist—thereby altering the overall dynamic growth trajectory of BTC per share.

Bitcoin