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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X platform that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to approximately 0.42, about four times lower than its historical average of 1.7, indicating Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued zone. However, this metric has not yet entered negative territory, suggesting the market has not shown the "capitulation selling" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day Realized P/L has turned positive from negative, currently standing at approximately $239 million, indicating that on-chain selling pressure has eased. The analysis suggests that while the market is currently in an undervalued and short-term stabilization phase, it has yet to show the capitulation signal needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there clear demand-driven momentum from a new cycle.
Currently, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) at a loss has exceeded the level during the FTX collapse and is approaching the 2018 bear market phase. The current Bitcoin Realized Price is approximately $50,000. Historically, every cycle has retested the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, so there remains a possibility of retesting this level in the future.
According to Bank of America Securities' July 17 Flow Report, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose from 9.4 to 9.6, further entering extreme bullish territory; historically, an indicator reading above 8.0 is a sell signal. Semiconductor ETFs have recorded year-to-date inflows of $46 billion, accounting for 31% of AUM, while tech funds saw record inflows of $48 billion over the past three weeks. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen approximately 20% from its June highs, indicating a significant divergence between flows and prices. BofA believes the current market has entered a "topping" zone and recommends reducing equity exposure, retreating or rotating into duration, defensive sectors, high dividends, and the US dollar. The report also notes that investors' extreme optimism is built on three fragile assumptions: an economic "no-landing," the Fed will not raise rates, and hyperscalers will not cut AI capital expenditure—all three of which could be broken. BofA provides specific observation anchors: retreat if the Mag 7 Index (MAGS) falls below 65, while a breakthrough above 70 is the signal to re-enter.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that data indicates Bitcoin is currently establishing a significant support level within the $59,000 to $70,000 range, which has become one of the most fiercely defended price zones in Bitcoin's history.Approximately 50% of the total Bitcoin supply has now been turned over above the $59,000 mark. If the millions of Bitcoins believed to be permanently lost are excluded, this percentage would be even higher. This round of turnover is primarily driven by short-term holders (STH), revealing a divergence in market participant behavior, with some investors choosing to panic sell while others continue to accumulate.However, although multiple indicators have entered extremely bearish or oversold zones, the formation of the $59,000 to $70,000 range has some rationale. This does not necessarily mean the market has confirmed a bottom. More accurately, Bitcoin's bottom structure is still in the process of being built. Additionally, the large trading volume peak near $84,500 is mainly attributed to internal Bitcoin transfers on Coinbase and should not be included in market behavior analysis.
WEEX Exchange Announcement: A Coin-Stock Ecosystem Trading Zone event for Physical AI Bot is now launched. Users trading any event tokens (MSFTON, NVDAON, AMDON, QCOMON, TXNON, ADION, SYMON, ISRGON, TSLAON) can participate in sharing a $100,000 reward. Event Time: 7/2 20:00 - 7/12 20:00 (UTC+8). During the event, new users who sequentially complete a net deposit ≥ $100 and make their first spot trade in an event token with trading volume ≥ $10 can receive a blind box worth up to $28; cumulative spot trading volume of event tokens ≥ 200 USDT allows participation in sharing 10,000 USDT bonus based on trading volume ratio. For new and old users, daily event token spot trading volume ≥ $50 is considered a successful check-in; cumulative check-ins of 2 days or more allow participation in sharing a $20,000 prize pool; net buy of event tokens ≥ 100 USDT allows participation in the Net Buy Challenge to share $30,000; cumulative spot trading volume of event tokens ≥ 2,000 USDT allows sharing 20,000 USDT bonus based on trading volume ratio.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out in a post that the Bitcoin S2F regression model is gradually approaching historically extreme undervalued zones. This model is used to measure the deviation of market price relative to S2F fair value, thereby identifying significant overvalued or undervalued phases.
Analyst Ai pointed out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been regarded as a core indicator for judging "cycle bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:August 2015: Touched the 200-week MA and then started a bull run, with cumulative gains exceeding 8,500%December 2018: Bounced approximately 267% after testing this moving averageMarch 2020: Confirmed support after bottoming out due to the pandemic liquidity shock, followed by a rise of 1,125%June 2022: Fell below for the first time and remained below the moving average for a long period until reclaiming it in December, which triggered a rally of approximately 680%In the current market, the 200-week MA is located around $63,500, while Bitcoin's current price is trading below $60,000. Analysts believe this has already entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.At the same time, analysts also caution that potential downside risks remain. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme cases, testing the $40,000 range cannot be ruled out. However, overall, adopting a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for gradual position building is more suitable.Regarding key observation points, the $63,500 level is seen as the "bull-bear dividing line." If Bitcoin can firmly reclaim and confirm the 200-week MA as macro support on a higher time frame, historical patterns suggest it could signal that the early stages of a new bull cycle have already begun.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah’s monitoring, the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator has yet to break above the neutral zone (0), clearly signaling the continuation of the bear market. The indicator has currently declined to the -30 level—a range that has historically served as a key cyclical support zone and formed major cycle bottoms on multiple occasions. Analysts note that for a trend reversal to be confirmed, price must first form a bullish pattern, accompanied by the indicator’s effective breakout above the neutral zone.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom for this cycle remains around $48,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s post-adjustment seller risk ratio indicator shows that unprofitable supply is beginning to surpass profitable supply, and unrealized pressure on holders is rising significantly. Meanwhile, the Cumulative Value Destroyed Days (CVDD) valuation model indicates that Bitcoin’s structural bottom for this cycle is approximately $48,000.
Coinbase has released a post-mortem report on the large-scale service outage that occurred on May 7, 2026. The disruption lasted approximately 8 hours, with full recovery taking about 12 hours. During this period, trading, deposits, withdrawals, and most core services were either unavailable or severely degraded.Coinbase stated that the outage was triggered by the simultaneous failure of multiple chillers in the cooling system of a data center within an Availability Zone (use1-az4) of the AWS us-east-1 region. This led to thermal shutdown protection for server racks, causing EC2 instances and EBS volumes to go offline, and impacting multiple internet services.During the recovery process, Coinbase's trading matching engine lost quorum after its cluster architecture, deployed within a single AWS data center, lost the majority of its nodes. Emergency code adjustments and the formation of new node groups were required to restore operations, with market trading being gradually restarted throughout the recovery.Additionally, the AWS Managed Streaming for Kafka (MSK) service experienced a control plane failure, preventing automatic re-election of partition leaders. This further blocked order books, fee calculations, and parts of the settlement and data streaming systems, expanding the overall impact. After Coinbase and the AWS engineering teams collaborated on manual partition migrations, the system gradually returned to normal.Coinbase indicated that this incident exposed deficiencies in its cross-Availability Zone automatic failover capabilities and the disaster recovery of managed middleware. The company will upgrade its cross-region hot standby architecture, strengthen regular disaster recovery drills, migrate its Kafka systems from a dual-AZ to a triple-AZ deployment, and work jointly with AWS to address root causes and implement improvements.
Odaily News Crypto analyst Ali posted on X, stating that the privacy-focused cryptocurrency project Zcash (ZEC) has accumulated gains of over 40% in the past week. The current price is now approaching the key resistance zone that triggered a significant correction last November, specifically the $700 to $730 range. If ZEC can effectively break through and consolidate above this range, it could open up further upward potential. Conversely, if it encounters strong selling pressure again, it may repeat the previous pattern of a sharp rally followed by a pullback.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
although Bitcoin has retraced approximately 2.5% from its local high of $82,800 on May 6, market analysts widely believe its overall uptrend structure remains intact, and it has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" zone. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock points out that Bitcoin has re-entered a price expansion zone, with the Bull Market Support Band turning into support. The 21-week EMA has crossed back above the 20-week SMA, shifting the trend structure back to bullish.Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the $80,000 level, where the "Realized Market Mean" and the short-term holder cost basis form key support, while the realized price near $85,000 represents overhead resistance. Spot buying pressure driven by whales and institutions is strengthening, while the proportion of speculative derivatives activity is declining. Historically, similar structural setups have often corresponded to sustainable uptrends. If this indicator remains persistently positive, it could further propel Bitcoin's upward cycle.On the liquidity front, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows into a critical range, indicating stablecoin capital is flowing back into the market. This signal previously corresponded to阶段性底部反弹 (significant bottom bounces) in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023.Meanwhile, Binance's Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, hitting a 12-month high, demonstrating a notable increase in stablecoin purchasing power. On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume increased by 116% in May to 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses grew 7.1% week-over-week to 707,700; and total fees rose 37% to $279,300, indicating significantly heightened network usage activity. Regarding capital structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned consistently positive, suggesting spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows this indicator has further increased to $62 million compared to a week earlier, reflecting a strengthening of active buying sentiment in the market.In summary, price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin remains in a "strong trend expansion phase," with the bull market momentum not yet exhausted. (Cointelegraph)
According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, Bitcoin’s Composite Market Index (BCMI) is currently testing a significant historical pivot zone, having declined into the 0.2–0.3 range—indicating that BTC is in one of its historically deepest undervaluation zones. The BCMI comprises MVRV (30% weight), NUPL (25% weight), SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index. This correction has reset both realized value and investor sentiment to levels not seen since early 2023. He also notes that the 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains in a downtrend; confirmation of selling pressure exhaustion and price stabilization will require the SMA’s slope to flatten.
Crypto analyst Ali published a detailed analysis on X, arguing that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has hit its bottom, market participants should focus on whether the current volatility represents a “generation-defining entry opportunity.” Based on long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution metrics, Ali delineates the core “value range” for this cycle. On the support side, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a significant concentration of coins in the $63,111–$70,685 range, forming the current primary support zone; if price breaks below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line from the past decade (approximately $56,000–$60,000), a level historically associated with accumulation phases preceding major rallies.