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Analysis: BTC Unlikely to Hold Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Curbs Breakout Expectations

Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)

A whale deposited 2.5 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a 2x long position on ZEC.

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a whale deposited 2.5 million USDC into HyperLiquid and subsequently opened a 2x leveraged long position in ZEC.

Shorting ZEC and HYPE, a Binance Futures Smart Money Trader Tops the 24-Hour Loss Chart

according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, a smart money trader on Binance Futures is facing a floating loss of $1.975 million, ranking first on the 24-hour loss chart.Among them, the ZEC short position has a floating loss of $1.15 million, with an opening price of $410.66; the HYPE short position has a floating loss of $789,000, with an opening price of $42.49; the BTC short position has a floating loss of $158,000, with an opening price of $76,399; the ETH short position is showing a floating profit of $124,000, with an opening price of $2,232.28.

A newly created wallet withdrew 11,827 ZEC, valued at approximately $7.96 million.

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (t3TFwP) has just withdrawn 11,827 ZEC (currently priced at $669.21) from Binance, valued at approximately $7.96 million.

Whale Evaded’s 10x Long Positions on ZEC and HYPE See Floating Profits Rise to Nearly $8 Million

According to hypurrscan data, as HYPE and ZEC continue to rally, the floating profits on whale Evaded's (@ICanPlug) 10x long positions have grown to nearly $8 million. Specifically:10x long ZEC position holds 36,880 ZEC, worth $24.9 million, with floating profits of $5 million;10x long HYPE position holds over 363,000 HYPE, worth over $20.55 million, with floating profits of $2.92 million.

Whale Evaded opens $17 million ETH long position with 25x leverage, floating profit on ZEC and HYPE long positions exceeds $2.3 million

according to Onchain Lens monitoring, Whale Evaded (0x865...20d) has opened a long position of 8,000 ETH with 25x leverage, valued at $17 million. It still holds long positions in ZEC and HYPE with 10x leverage, with floating profits exceeding $2.3 million.

An address went long on ZEC and HYPE over two days, generating a floating profit of approximately $2.1 million.

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), trader Evaded (@ICanPlug) recently opened a 10x-leveraged long position, purchasing 36,875 ZEC (average price: $585.50, ~$21.59 million) and 287,618 HYPE (average price: $48.03, ~$13.89 million). The current unrealized profit stands at $2.1 million.

Whale Evaded Opens 10x Leveraged Long Positions on ZEC and HYPE, Portfolio Reaches $24 Million

according to Onchain Lens monitoring, whale Evaded has opened 10x leveraged long positions on ZEC and HYPE. The current portfolio holds 36,875 ZEC and 87,000 HYPE, valued at $24 million.

Grayscale Files for First Zcash Spot ETF

Grayscale submitted the first application for a Zcash spot ETF on May 8.ZEC’s price once touched $600, pushing its market cap into the top 15 and surpassing Cardano. Multicoin Capital co-founder Tushar Jain noted that this move is driven by growing demand for privacy assets amid U.S. wealth tax legislative proposals. The SEC concluded its review of Zcash in January 2026 without taking enforcement action. Data shows that approximately 30% of ZEC’s supply is held in shielded addresses. Last week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $268 million in outflows, with some capital rotating into privacy and AI infrastructure tokens.

Whale Loracle.hl increases short position on HYPE by $53.23 million, cumulative profit approaches $37 million

according to Onchain Lens monitoring, whale Loracle.hl has closed its TON, BTC, and CL positions, realizing a profit of approximately $3.9 million. Meanwhile, the address also closed out about 96% of its ZEC long position.Additionally, Loracle.hl has increased its short position on HYPE to 1,239,834 HYPE, with a position value of approximately $53.23 million and a leverage of 5x. The current cumulative profit is approaching $37 million.

A certain account shorted 28 altcoins and CL crude oil, with total profits of $86.36 million but currently facing an unrealized loss of $4.06 million

according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, an account that shorted a basket of altcoins has realized total profits of $86.36 million. Currently, its 29 short positions face a floating loss of $4.06 million. The shorts include 28 altcoins such as ZEC, TON, NEAR, and LIT, as well as CL crude oil, with a total position value of $47.66 million, and the account is still increasing its positions.

A whale has opened a long position worth $10.2 million in ZEC

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale has opened a long position worth $10.2 million in ZEC with 10x leverage over the past 3 hours, with a liquidation price of $565.64. The whale also currently holds long positions in CRCL and NVDA, with leverage multiples of 10x and 20x respectively.

HyperLiquid whale Loracle.hl currently holds unrealized profits exceeding $8.55 million, with cumulative profits of approximately $36 million.

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), HyperLiquid whale Loracle.hl currently holds unrealized profits exceeding $8.55 million, with cumulative profits totaling approximately $36 million. Two hours ago, the whale closed a short position on BRENTOIL, realizing profits of over $991,000. Its current positions include: - Long ZEC (10x leverage): $5.9 million unrealized profit - Long TON (5x leverage): $1.88 million unrealized profit - Short CL (10x leverage): $1.8 million unrealized profit - Long BTC (20x leverage): $834,000 unrealized profit - Short HYPE: $1.47 million unrealized loss

A newly created wallet went long on ZEC and HYPE with 10x leverage, totaling over $3.7 million.

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (0xb266) opened 10x-leveraged long positions within the past hour, purchasing 5,000 ZEC (approximately $2.64 million) and 25,000 HYPE (approximately $1.1 million), for a total position size exceeding $3.7 million.