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CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) stated on X that year-to-date net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have been near zero, yet the year-to-date drawdown for BTC is only around 7%. Given weak ETF demand and resilient prices, it is unlikely that early whales or miners will execute large-scale sell-offs, as holders looking to exit may have already done so. He anticipates that once the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. midterm elections subsides and ETF capital flows resume, bullish market momentum will likely return. He also shared a CryptoQuant chart depicting Bitcoin ETF annual holdings.
trader Killa has posted that current Bitcoin price action is highly similar to 2023. At that time, after BTC broke out of its consolidation range and posted a higher weekly high, it did not fall back below the previous high, but instead went on to form a higher low. If a similar pattern plays out this time, BTC may hold the upper boundary of its previous range, and the price may not fall back to the previous $74,000 low, but instead bottom out and rebound at a higher level. The current trend remains clearly bullish.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin has consistently experienced net outflows from exchanges since September 22, with the current 30-day average net outflow at approximately 1,500 BTC per day, a significant drop from the roughly 3,000 BTC observed a week ago. However, this decline is primarily due to the large outflow data from September 22 falling out of the 30-day tracking window, rather than indicating a new large-scale influx of funds back to exchanges.
JPMorgan notes that retail investors have lost confidence in tech ETFs, but their buying of individual semiconductor stocks runs counter to institutional positioning, with semiconductor crowding at the 96.1th percentile. Over the next seven days of earnings season, 62 S&P 500 companies will report results, accounting for 14% of market capitalization, concentrated in the financial and industrial sectors.
Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Darkfost stated on X that when Bitcoin's price reached $83,000, approximately 53% of capital costs were positioned above that price, meaning current buyers' holding costs are higher than those of more than half of market participants. Currently, the $84,000 to $85,000 range represents Bitcoin's largest supply distribution zone, where many investors will react at this critical price level. This area is a key resistance level that Bitcoin needs to break through for its subsequent trend; if the price pulls back, the $79,000 to $77,000 range may become a potential support zone.
According to Trend Research, Deutsche Bank's September 25, 2026 research report states that tech stocks have risen 14% since late July, while the rest of the S&P 500 has declined 3%. Tech stock positioning stands at the 80th percentile, down from a peak of 99 percentiles in early June. Overall large-cap positioning is at the 79th percentile, systematic strategies at 91 percentiles, and discretionary strategies at 64 percentiles. Equity funds saw $10.2 billion in outflows, marking the first instance in three months, with U.S. equity funds posting $21.2 billion in outflows. Bond funds recorded $17.3 billion in inflows.
Odaily News: Bitcoin fell back to around $83,600 on Friday, down about 1% from the previous trading day, after briefly touching around $87,000, reaching that level for the first time in months. Market analysis suggests that the expiry of $1.56 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit may have exacerbated short-term volatility, as market makers typically unwind their hedging positions after options expiry.Over the past 24 hours, BTC open interest and trading volume fell by 14.39% and 13.68% respectively, with long and short liquidations relatively balanced—long liquidations totaled $161.96 million and short liquidations $156.1 million—indicating that leveraged funds are readjusting. On the technical side, BTC's 50-day moving average remains above its 200-day moving average, forming a "golden cross," and the short-term trend is still viewed as relatively strong.Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $299.09 million on Friday, though this was lower than the single-day inflow levels seen earlier in the week. By contrast, XRP rose 4.37% over the past 24 hours and 15.45% over the past 7 days, currently trading at around $1.58; Solana rose 3.36% over the past 24 hours and 9.33% over the past 7 days, currently trading at around $119.84. The next macro data points the market is watching are the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due on September 30 and the September nonfarm payrolls report due on October 2. (Decrypt)
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a post that Bitcoin rose to approximately $85,700, about 6.4% above its 365-day moving average of $80,500, marking the first breach of the moving average since November 2025. Meanwhile, the Trend Pulse indicator concluded a nine-day neutral phase and resumed a bullish pattern.
According to on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), the whale entity Garrett Jin sold all 35,000 ETH (approximately $87.5 million) withdrawn from Binance last night today at an average price of $2,500. The proceeds were used to add margin to their ZEC short position, which shows an unrealized loss of roughly $34 million, thereby substantially raising the liquidation price from $2,631 to $4,738. Ember also traced the entity's complete on-chain footprint: • Funding origin: Accumulated 100,784 BTC at an average price of ~$7,242 between May and June 2018; all subsequent operational capital was derived from BTC sales; • BTC to ETH conversion: Beginning in August 2025, over a six-month period, 89,000 BTC were sold at an average price of ~$114,000 to acquire 900,000 ETH at an average price of ~$4,300 (resulting in a cost basis above $3,500); these ETH tokens have been gradually transferred to Binance throughout the first half of 2026; • Largest liquidation on Hyperliquid: In February 2026, ETH dropped sharply from $3,000 to $1,800, leading to the liquidation of a $670 million ETH long position (213,000 ETH opened at $3,150), resulting in approximately $230 million in lost margin; • Trend Re
following the release of today's US CPI data, the whale "Setting 10 Big Targets First" posted on X platform stating that Bitcoin has not fallen below $74,000, and the bullish trend remains unchanged."Setting 10 Big Targets First" previously stated: "Next, I'll look for opportunities to re-enter long positions. This trend has come more fiercely than I originally imagined, so the imagination for what's ahead can be bolder too. Getting on board at $80,000 or even above $80,000, I think it's still not too late—there's still room. $100,000 will most likely arrive sooner than I originally expected. Once we hit $100,000, we can reassess just how far this trend can go."
Odaily Odaily News Trader Bonkguy (unipcs) posted on platform X, stating that for those who missed the recent moves on Robinhood and BNB Chain, these movements may only be a warm-up. This typically occurs in the early stages of a new bull market cycle, or right before the market is about to accelerate. The real trend may begin in the fourth quarter, and when compared to it, the recent movements may only appear as minor fluctuations.Many people missed recent opportunities because they are still affected by their bear market experiences. The defensive habits that protected investors during the bear market may hinder their ability to profit during a bull market. The key lies in recognizing changes in the market environment and adjusting one's mental framework accordingly. Pullbacks will certainly occur as the market develops, but in a genuine bull market, pullbacks are often opportunities to accumulate positions in high-conviction assets. Market volatility may intensify further, and future conditions may exceed what most people expect. Ultimately, those who profit the most may not be the ones trying to predict every single move in the coming days, but rather those who identify the market's direction, position themselves early, and give their judgment enough time to play out.
Whale "Sets 10 Major Targets First" JasonLeo responded to the question of whether the current trend is a reversal or a major rebound by stating that their assessment is a "trend reversal."
According to BeInCrypto, CryptoQuant data shows that centralized exchange stablecoin reserves fell from a high of about $80 billion at the end of 2025 to about $64 billion, shrinking by about $16 billion (about 20%). Among them, Binance showed relative resilience, with its stablecoin share rising from just over 60% to 68.5%, while platforms such as Coinbase, Bybit, and OKX saw more significant reductions. Meanwhile, on-chain analysis platform Santiment detected that pessimistic sentiments such as "crypto is dead" on X and Reddit continued to intensify, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently at 46, still in the fear zone. The total stablecoin supply also fell from a high of nearly $316 billion in May to $300.89 billion, but the decline was far lower than on the exchange side, indicating that some liquidity may have shifted on-chain rather than exiting completely.
According to Glassnode data reported by Odaily, the $63,000 level is emerging as a key support and battleground zone for Bitcoin (BTC) in the current market. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has continued to trade within the $60,000 to $67,000 range, with over 3% of BTC's circulating supply—approximately 515,000 BTC—having a cost basis concentrated near $63,000. Additionally, more than 362,000 BTC is concentrated in the $61,000 area. Glassnode notes that only the $78,000 to $82,000 range currently has a higher supply density than this zone, corresponding to Bitcoin's May cyclical peak.Furthermore, Bitcoin's current price nearly coincides with the 200-week moving average. Glassnode data shows that the 200-week MA currently stands at approximately $63,657, while BTC's price is around $63,822, indicating significant historical accumulation and strong cost support in this area.Looking at the 30-day cumulative Accumulation Trend Score, all types of investors are currently in a net accumulation state, with retail buying momentum being the most pronounced. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC continue to increase their positions, suggesting that long-term capital is still positioning itself. The $63,000 level has become a critical price band in Bitcoin's short-term market structure, and investor accumulation behavior may provide important reference for future price movements. (CoinDesk)
According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually transferring holdings to a new round of buyers. Glassnode's RHODL Ratio began to decline after reaching a historical second-high of 6.5 in early July and has now fallen below 6, but the Bitcoin price remains trading sideways around the $60,000 range, with no significant panic selling observed.
Goldman Sachs raised SanDisk's price target from $1,200 to $2,200 and reiterated its "Buy" rating
: On-chain data analytics platform Glassnode posted on X that its “Accumulation Trend Score” indicator shows that after Bitcoin’s price dipped to the $60,000 range in early June, the overall behavior of on-chain addresses has notably shifted toward accumulation.This indicator measures the intensity of on-chain accumulation behavior by combining holding sizes with recent balance changes. A score close to 1 represents widespread accumulation, while a score near 0 indicates ongoing distribution.Glassnode notes that as the price enters lower ranges, the scores for holders of different sizes rise simultaneously, indicating a typical “buy-the-dip” market structure. That is, the price decline did not trigger sustained selling, but instead sparked stronger on-chain demand inflows.Analysts believe that this cross-cohort synchronized accumulation structure typically appears in the early stages of market sentiment recovery, reflecting that medium- to long-term capital is being repositioned.
Despite Bitcoin bouncing after falling below $60,000, several market analysts believe this is more likely a technical correction following an oversold condition rather than the start of a new bull market.Analysts at HEX Trust stated that the market has entered an oversold territory. If US inflation data cools and the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs slows down, Bitcoin could see further upside. However, a true trend reversal depends on the market’s ability to firmly reclaim the $79,000 to $80,000 range. Until then, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective rally within a bear market.Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, is relatively more optimistic. He believes that if Bitcoin can rebound to around $68,000, it could be considered a valid recovery from the downtrend observed between May 11 and June 5.Data shows that the net cumulative outflow from the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks has exceeded $5 billion. On Monday alone, another $91 million flowed out. Analysts point out that ETF fund flows remain one of the key factors determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.Additionally, the market is closely watching US inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday. If the inflation figure comes in lower than expected, it could help ease market concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market currently expects the US inflation rate for May to remain above 4%, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. (CoinDesk)
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), Trend Research (@Trend_Research_), a secondary investment firm under Jackyi, transferred a total of 7.57 million UNI (approximately $24.55 million) and 228,700 COMP (approximately $4.44 million) to Binance over four days, fully liquidating its positions and realizing a total loss of approximately $46.98 million.