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ETH Ushers in "Golden July"? Institutions and Supply-Demand Dynamics Could Become New Catalysts for Ethereum's "New Cycle"

Odaily News, Sharplink research director Steven Ehrlich stated on platform X that Ethereum (ETH) has started July 2026 with strong momentum, gaining approximately 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests investors should pay attention to ETH's July performance. Over the past 10 years, ETH has posted gains in July on four occasions, with an average increase of 43% in those months. Since 2020, July has been ETH's strongest-performing month, with an average gain of about 27%, leading all other months.The core advantage of ETH's July performance is not simply volatility but the asymmetry between gains and losses: when July is positive, the average gain is approximately 43%; in losing years, the average decline is only about 5% (2020 to 2025). Historically, strong Julys for ETH have often coincided with Ethereum-specific catalysts:July 2020: Gained 54%, marking the launch of "DeFi Summer." Compound introduced the COMP token, triggering a yield farming frenzy. DeFi total value locked (TVL) surged from about $1 billion to $4 billion within weeks, DEX monthly trading volume grew by 174%, and ETH benefited as the foundational infrastructure of DeFi.July 2022: Gained 58%. The timeline for The Merge upgrade was confirmed on July 14, market sentiment rebounded from the post-LUNA and 3AC crisis low, and approximately $337 million in short positions were liquidated within 3 days.July 2025: Gained 49%. The US GENIUS Act was signed, spot ETH ETFs recorded a record monthly inflow of approximately $5.4 billion, corporate capital accelerated its allocation to ETH, staking rate reached about 30%, and declining exchange balances contributed to supply tightness.Historically, ETH's strong monthly rallies have typically been driven by a combination of "Ethereum-specific catalysts plus supply-demand imbalance." For July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes the current market environment presents similar opportunities:1. Institutional infrastructure is being built. EthLabs (protocol R&D) and Ethereum Institutional were recently launched to drive institutional participation in the on-chain ecosystem, with participants including Sharplink, BitMine, and Joe Lubin.2. The Ethereum roadmap continues to upgrade. Vitalik Buterin proposed the "Lean Ethereum" plan on July 4, aiming to simplify Ethereum's architecture, increase speed, and enhance quantum resistance over the next 3 to 4 years. Its significance is comparable to The Merge.3. Corporate capital continues to accumulate ETH. Digital asset reserve companies are still actively building their ETH positions. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, added 10,000 ETH in purchases last week, and stated its goal is to increase the amount of ETH per share.Steven Ehrlich stated that Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, where institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation may become key factors driving ETH's price action.

Benchmark 分析师:STRC 与 Terra 稳定币有本质区别

Benchmark-StoneX 分析师 Mark Palmer 指出,Strategy 旗下 STRC 产品虽近期波动,但其机制与导致 Terra 崩溃的算法稳定币存在根本差异。

Court documents allege Jane Street used insider information from Terraform to short UST, profiting $134 million

According to recently unsealed court documents, Jane Street is alleged to have obtained insider information from Terraform Labs via a private Telegram group named "Bryce's Secret."The documents claim that Jane Street subsequently sold approximately $192 million worth of UST when it was near its peg price, and profited around $134 million by shorting UST during the collapse of TerraUSD and the evaporation of roughly $40 billion in market value from the Terra ecosystem. (CoinDesk)

Terraform Liquidator Accuses Jane Street of Obtaining Inside Information via Telegram Private Group

According to CoinDesk, newly unsealed court documents allege that Jane Street, a major Wall Street quantitative trading firm, obtained non-public internal information from Terraform Labs via a private Telegram group named “Bryce’s Secret” prior to the 2022 Terra collapse. The firm is accused of selling approximately $192 million worth of UST in advance and establishing short positions, thereby profiting roughly $134 million amid the collapse of the Terra ecosystem—valued at approximately $40 billion. The complaint states that on May 7, 2022—just nine minutes after Terraform withdrew $150 million in liquidity from the Curve pool—Jane Street sold around $85 million worth of UST on Curve. The associated wallet was subsequently suspected of being a key address contributing to UST’s de-pegging. However, Jane Street denies these allegations, calling the lawsuit “baseless,” and states it will vigorously defend itself.

Analyst: History May Repeat Itself, Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $33,000

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will reenact its historical “Sell in May” pattern in 2026. In the two midterm election years—2018 and 2022—Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in May, falling approximately 30% and 70%, respectively. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar warned that this historical pattern could repeat, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to $33,000. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also noted that if Bitcoin remains persistently below $78,000, the likelihood of a new capitulation phase increases. However, Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, argued that past crashes stemmed from specific shocks—including the Mt. Gox incident, China’s ICO regulations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, and the collapses of Terra and FTX—not from calendar-based seasonality. He added that the launch of spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and progress on the CLARITY Act have significantly broadened the institutional buyer base, making a 70–80% deep correction unlikely this cycle. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted $76,000 as the current critical support level; failure to hold it would likely trigger further downside pressure.