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Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Remain Weak, Recovery Depends on US-Iran Peace Agreement
Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, stated that although Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $67,000 level, its momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics indicating insufficient recovery strength. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States has reached a peace agreement with Iran to end months of conflict, and the agreement is expected to be signed on Friday. Many details of the agreement remain unknown, but Trump stated that the deal will open the Strait of Hormuz, the US will lift the blockade on the strait and Iranian ports, and the two countries will then enter 60 days of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program and potential sanctions relief. Swissblock said on Monday that Bitcoin's price momentum and On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator remain in a state of "weak momentum and weak participation." Although Bitcoin rebounded to $67,000 on Monday after falling below $60,000 on June 6, the price momentum is still at -1, and the OBV has dropped to a multi-year low of -1.7 million. (Cointelegraph)
Analysis: Bitcoin Remains in Strong Expansion Zone, Multiple On-Chain and Capital Indicators Confirm “Full Bull Market Momentum”
although Bitcoin has retraced approximately 2.5% from its local high of $82,800 on May 6, market analysts widely believe its overall uptrend structure remains intact, and it has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" zone. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock points out that Bitcoin has re-entered a price expansion zone, with the Bull Market Support Band turning into support. The 21-week EMA has crossed back above the 20-week SMA, shifting the trend structure back to bullish.Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the $80,000 level, where the "Realized Market Mean" and the short-term holder cost basis form key support, while the realized price near $85,000 represents overhead resistance. Spot buying pressure driven by whales and institutions is strengthening, while the proportion of speculative derivatives activity is declining. Historically, similar structural setups have often corresponded to sustainable uptrends. If this indicator remains persistently positive, it could further propel Bitcoin's upward cycle.On the liquidity front, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows into a critical range, indicating stablecoin capital is flowing back into the market. This signal previously corresponded to阶段性底部反弹 (significant bottom bounces) in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023.Meanwhile, Binance's Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, hitting a 12-month high, demonstrating a notable increase in stablecoin purchasing power. On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume increased by 116% in May to 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses grew 7.1% week-over-week to 707,700; and total fees rose 37% to $279,300, indicating significantly heightened network usage activity. Regarding capital structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned consistently positive, suggesting spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows this indicator has further increased to $62 million compared to a week earlier, reflecting a strengthening of active buying sentiment in the market.In summary, price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin remains in a "strong trend expansion phase," with the bull market momentum not yet exhausted. (Cointelegraph)