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Analyst: This BTC rally is primarily driven by leveraged trading rather than real capital inflow
According to CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom, Bitcoin rose from approximately $64,000 to $66,000 within two days, but this rally was primarily driven by leverage trading rather than real capital inflow. On-chain data shows that funding rates briefly turned negative on July 18-19, triggering a short squeeze that ignited the rebound. Subsequently, open interest climbed from approximately $21.2 billion to a new high of $23 billion, indicating that new leverage positions continue to drive the market. Meanwhile, spot trading volume has remained in a "cooling" state since April, and off-exchange stablecoin funds are on the sidelines rather than exiting. In terms of ETFs, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, with single-day inflows of approximately $271 million on July 20 (of which IBIT contributed $116.5 million), showing institutional capital is slowly returning, but not yet enough to drive a recovery in overall spot trading volume. The analyst warned that the current rally structure is fragile; once momentum fades, rapid leverage liquidation could trigger a sharp correction. It is recommended to wait for a substantive recovery in spot trading volume before chasing the rally.
Analyst: BTC HODL Waves Data Suggests Cycle Bottom May Form Between $65,900 and $70,500
CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom pointed out that BTC HODL Waves data suggests the bottom of this cycle may form in the range of $65,900 to $70,500.
Related news
Analyst: This BTC rally is primarily driven by leveraged trading rather than real capital inflow
According to CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom, Bitcoin rose from approximately $64,000 to $66,000 within two days, but this rally was primarily driven by leverage trading rather than real capital inflow. On-chain data shows that funding rates briefly turned negative on July 18-19, triggering a short squeeze that ignited the rebound. Subsequently, open interest climbed from approximately $21.2 billion to a new high of $23 billion, indicating that new leverage positions continue to drive the market. Meanwhile, spot trading volume has remained in a "cooling" state since April, and off-exchange stablecoin funds are on the sidelines rather than exiting. In terms of ETFs, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, with single-day inflows of approximately $271 million on July 20 (of which IBIT contributed $116.5 million), showing institutional capital is slowly returning, but not yet enough to drive a recovery in overall spot trading volume. The analyst warned that the current rally structure is fragile; once momentum fades, rapid leverage liquidation could trigger a sharp correction. It is recommended to wait for a substantive recovery in spot trading volume before chasing the rally.
Analyst: BTC HODL Waves Data Suggests Cycle Bottom May Form Between $65,900 and $70,500
CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom pointed out that BTC HODL Waves data suggests the bottom of this cycle may form in the range of $65,900 to $70,500.