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JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation

According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.

Fidelity Urges US Senate to Pass the CLARITY Act

Fidelity's Public Policy Department urged the U.S. Senate to pass the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, the CLARITY Act, as soon as possible, stating that establishing a clear regulatory framework would help boost investor confidence and enhance U.S. competitiveness in the global digital asset market.

Coinone Major Shareholder Change Approved: OKX Ventures and Korea Investment & Securities Complete New Shareholder Structure Filing

Odaily Planet Daily reported that South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Coinone announced on July 22 that it had received approval from the Korea Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) to complete its major shareholder change declaration, formally establishing a new shareholder structure centered around Korea Investment & Securities, OKX Ventures, and Com2uS Holdings. Coinone stated that it will leverage the enhanced compliance and technical capabilities of its new shareholders to upgrade digital asset trading services and accelerate its transition into a comprehensive blockchain financial platform. (EDaily)

U.S. Representative McHenry Advocates for the CLARITY Act: The Crypto Market Structure Bill Could Become the Next-Generation “Telecommunications Act”

a16z has published an article by U.S. Representative Patrick McHenry titled “The time for Clarity is here: The next-generation Telecoms Act.” The article points out that the advancing crypto market structure legislation, the “CLARITY Act,” holds historical significance similar to the 1996 Telecommunications Act, potentially laying a vital foundation for the next wave of financial innovation in the United States.Patrick McHenry stated that his over 20 years of service in Congress have shown him that timely legislation can propel the nation forward, while legislative stagnation may force the U.S. to play catch-up in critical technological fields. America stands at a crossroads: either maintain its position as the world's leading technology and financial hub, or cede this advantage to competitors challenging its dominance. The CLARITY Act represents one of the few forward-looking financial legislative opportunities in recent years. Like the 1996 Telecommunications Act, it aims to establish consumer protection mechanisms while embracing emerging technological developments. The bill has garnered broad bipartisan support and involves coordination across multiple congressional committees.Patrick McHenry believes that U.S. financial regulation has long been stuck in a “crisis response mode.” Since the 2008 financial crisis, most major financial reforms have primarily targeted past risks, failing to establish an institutional framework for future technological innovation. He argues that crypto market structure legislation has the opportunity to break this pattern and become the first significant reform in nearly 30 years to proactively build the financial system of the future.Regarding the view that existing securities laws are sufficient to cover the crypto industry, this perspective does not reflect market realities. Companies and entrepreneurs are not rejecting regulation; rather, they seek clear rules. “When entrepreneurs know where the boundaries are, they can innovate with greater confidence.” If the CLARITY Act is passed, it will provide regulatory certainty for the digital asset industry, protect consumers and investors, and equip enforcement agencies with tools to combat crime and bad actors. Multiple crypto-related legislative efforts, including the stablecoin regulation bill the GENIUS Act, have gained bipartisan support. An increasing number of lawmakers recognize that digital assets are not going away, and the U.S. needs to establish clear rules to maintain its competitive edge.Other countries around the world are actively advancing digital asset regulatory frameworks. Capital and innovation will flow to markets with clear rules. The CLARITY Act is not just about crypto assets; it concerns whether the U.S. can continue to lead economic development in the 21st century and establish the rules for global technological innovation.

The US Senate plans to push for full Senate consideration of the CLARITY Act on July 20.

According to The Hill, the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill, the CLARITY Act, is facing a critical advancement milestone before the August congressional recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune plans to push the bill to the Senate floor for consideration during the week of July 20, but it still requires support from at least seven Democratic senators.

Clarity Act Legislative Time Window Narrows, Passage Within the Year Still Awaits Congressional Coordination

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill Clarity Act failed to be signed within the previously expected timeframe. As Congress approaches its summer recess, pressure is mounting for the bill to be enacted within 2026. However, several observers following the legislative process remain cautiously optimistic about its passage within the year, believing that current key coordination efforts are still ongoing, including the consolidation of content between the Senate Agriculture Committee and Banking Committee versions.

SBI Group and Startale Group Jointly Launch Japan's First Trust Structure-Based Yen Stablecoin JPYSC

Odaily, June 24 - According to official sources, SBI Group and Startale Group jointly launched Japan's first yen stablecoin, JPYSC, on June 24, 2026, which is based on a trust structure. Issued by SBI Shinsei Trust Bank, the stablecoin manages its reserve assets through a trust bank, featuring lower transfer costs and support for large-value transactions.As Japan's first stablecoin classified as a Type III electronic payment instrument, JPYSC's core advantage lies in combining the regulatory transparency of the Japanese financial system with the programmability of blockchain technology. It aims to build a yen settlement infrastructure connecting traditional finance with on-chain markets.Initially, the project is limited to use within SBI VC Trade accounts. However, technical preparations for migration to a public blockchain are complete. Once regulatory and tax policies are clarified, external circulation will be opened. JPYSC's application scenarios span six major areas: on-chain foreign exchange markets, institutional lending, RWA settlement, retail payments, cross-border remittances, and over-the-counter (OTC) trading.

Analysis: US SEC Poised to Approve Tokenized Stock Trading, Potentially Reshaping the US Stock Market Structure

the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to introduce a new policy that would allow crypto companies to offer blockchain-based tokenized stock trading, potentially having a significant impact on the traditional stock market structure. According to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, companies will be permitted to experiment with new digital asset business models, including the tokenization of US stocks, without fully complying with existing disclosure and investor protection rules.However, the proposal has also raised concerns among traditional financial institutions such as Citadel Securities and SIFMA, who argue that such changes could divert liquidity and create regulatory arbitrage risks. As of now, the SEC has not made any public comments on the matter. (Reuters)

Crypto Super PAC Funding Floods U.S. 2026 Primaries: Controversy Erupts Over Fund Flows and Narrative Packaging

According to Forbes, as the 2026 U.S. primaries advance, political donations from the crypto industry have surged significantly. Protect Progress—a Democratic super PAC backed by the Fairshake network—is continuously channeling funds into candidates across several key districts, sparking controversy over “political narrative packaging.” Disclosures show that in the Maryland House of Delegates race alone, Protect Progress has contributed over $4.9 million to candidate Adrian Boafo; similar funding has also flowed to multiple Democratic candidates in Texas and Georgia. Meanwhile, Congress is advancing the Digital Asset Market Structure Act (the CLARITY Act), and the progress of this legislation further elevates the importance of primary election outcomes. Analysts contend that the crypto industry’s influence within the U.S. political system continues to expand, with several senators and candidates publicly endorsing regulatory frameworks for the crypto industry.

Binance US Stock Business Structure Exposed: Nest Trading Handles Connections, Alpaca Monopolizes 94% of Tokenized US Stock Market

Binance's US stock business adopts a dual-core structure of "introducing broker + clearing broker," with Nest Trading responsible for order referral, and US fintech company Alpaca Securities handling the entire process of trade execution, clearing, settlement, and asset custody.Nest Trading, formerly known as BCI Limited, obtained a broker-dealer license from the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) FSRA at the end of 2025 and officially began operations on January 5, 2026. Together with Nest Exchange and Nest Clearing and Custody, it forms Binance's compliance "troika" in ADGM. Registered on Reem Island in Abu Dhabi, Nest Trading handles key Binance services such as OTC, Convert, and Earn.Alpaca is an SEC-registered broker-dealer and a member of FINRA and SIPC, commanding a 94% market share of tokenized US stocks and ETFs, facilitating 1:1 on-chain asset conversion for platforms like Ondo Finance. In January 2026, Alpaca completed a $150 million Series D funding round at a valuation of $1.15 billion, achieving unicorn status with investments from Citadel Securities, Kraken, MUFG, and others. As of early 2026, Alpaca serves over 300 institutions, covering 9 million brokerage accounts. By the end of 2025, it held total assets of $1.386 billion and net capital exceeding $100 million.Public information indicates that Binance and its core team had no prior connection with Alpaca. This collaboration establishes a cross-border US stock trading loop characterized by "ADGM licensed connectivity + US compliant clearing."

TD Cowen: Deteriorating Political Environment Reduces Likelihood of US Crypto Market Structure Bill Passing This Year

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that as the relevant political environment continues to deteriorate, the likelihood of the US crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," passing this year is declining.TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out that while the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill earlier this month, this does not signify a substantive bipartisan agreement; rather, it merely pushes the controversy to the full Senate floor.The report indicated that the escalating controversies surrounding US President Donald Trump and his administration related to crypto in recent days are making it harder for Democrats to support the bill. If the bill does not include clear conflict-of-interest provisions, it will face even greater difficulty in gaining sufficient support in the current political environment.

US Crypto Market Structure Bill Enters Critical Period: NYDIG Warns June–August Is the Final Legislative Window

Odaily News: Greg Cipolaro, Research Director at financial services firm NYDIG, stated that the most realistic legislative window for the U.S. Senate's crypto market structure bill is June to early August. If progress cannot be made during this period, the bill may face uncertainty extending beyond the midterm elections or even longer.Earlier, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt had proposed July 4 as an ideal legislative timeline, but NYDIG considers this target overly optimistic. The bill still needs to clear multiple hurdles, including committee review, a full Senate vote, and House procedures.The bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for U.S. crypto assets and is regarded as one of the most critical pieces of legislation this year. However, it has faced repeated delays due to disagreements over stablecoin regulation, ethical clauses, and DeFi rules. The Senate Banking Committee has advanced the draft for a full Senate vote, but it still requires at least 60 votes to pass.Analysts point out that if the bill fails to pass before the election cycle, shifts in Republican and Democratic control of the Senate could further reduce legislative certainty, keeping the industry in a state of regulatory ambiguity.However, if the bill is ultimately passed and signed into law, it would bring regulatory clarity to the market. In particular, Bitcoin is expected to be clearly classified as a commodity, thereby reducing uncertainty for institutional entry. (Cointelegraph)

CLARITY Act Hearing Live: AI Regulatory Sandbox Amendment Passes, Amendment to Block High-Risk Assets from Retirement Accounts Rejected

the deliberation of the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) has commenced in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. As of now:1. An amendment proposed by Senator Mike Rounds to create an AI regulatory sandbox was passed with 15 votes in favor and 9 against, indicating some bipartisan support, despite Senator Elizabeth Warren urging Democratic members to vote against it.2. An amendment proposed by Elizabeth Warren, aimed at "preventing high-risk assets from entering retirement accounts," was rejected with 11 votes in favor and 13 against.3. An amendment previously proposed by Senator Katie Britt of Alabama, which would have allowed certain retirement accounts to invest in pooled investment vehicles, was withdrawn before the vote.It is reported that one of the most contentious amendments comes from Elizabeth Warren, concerning the strengthening of sanctions authority over cryptocurrency mixers. In her remarks, she referenced the U.S.-sanctioned mixing protocol Tornado Cash, stating it has been used to launder over $7 billion for criminal organizations and North Korean hacker groups, including over $450 million in related funds. Warren argued that the current bill does not grant the U.S. Treasury Department sufficient legal authority to isolate or restrict mixer services, potentially creating loopholes in anti-money laundering oversight. In response, Cynthia Lummis countered that the illegal financial activities are already covered in Parts Two and Three of the bill.

Elizabeth Warren: The CLARITY Act Is “Far from Ready”

The Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (also known as the CLARITY Act) has begun its review process in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that the bill “is just not ready,” criticizing it during her opening remarks. She noted that American citizens are currently facing real-world pressures—including rising costs for food, utilities, and healthcare—and argued that Congress should prioritize measures to lower living costs and cap credit card interest rates, rather than “spending time on a bill drafted by the crypto industry for its own benefit.” She also cited a poll showing that only 1% of 1,000 registered U.S. voters identified cryptocurrency as the most important issue ahead of the 2026 election, underscoring that crypto regulation is not a top priority for voters. Additionally, Warren called for more comprehensive debate and revisions to the CLARITY Act, stating that significant unresolved concerns remain regarding enforcement, anti-money laundering (AML), and other regulatory issues.

BlackRock Files New Tokenized Fund Structure Application with the U.S. SEC

asset management giant BlackRock has filed a new tokenized fund structure application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), again selecting Securitize as the provider of underlying technology and issuance infrastructure. According to the filing, the fund will record ownership on the blockchain and integrate with regulated transfer agents and investor access systems. Specifically, Securitize Transfer Agent, LLC will be responsible for maintaining the official registry and ownership records of fund shares across multiple public blockchains, achieving the integration of on-chain assets with traditional compliance systems.This application represents a further expansion built on the success of its first tokenized fund, BUIDL. Since its launch in 2024, the product's scale has grown to approximately $2.3 billion. Market data shows that the total market size for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has now surpassed $30 billion, with institutional capital accelerating its shift from experimental phases towards compliant, scaled on-chain financial infrastructure development.

U.S. Senate Banking Committee Updates Text of Digital Asset Market Structure Bill to Include Stablecoin Rewards and DeFi Developer Provisions

According to The Block, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking has released an updated 309-page version of the Clarity Act, scheduled for review and vote later this week. The new text includes language restricting stablecoin rewards and incorporates provisions from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, clarifying that non-custodial developers are not considered money transmitters. Coinbase—which had previously withdrawn its support due to controversy over the stablecoin rewards provision—has now reversed its position and endorsed the bill; however, banking industry groups still deem the restrictions insufficient. Meanwhile, the bill still lacks ethics-related provisions targeting digital asset-related benefits received by the President and other federal officials. Democratic lawmakers have stated that, absent such compromises, the bill is unlikely to gain their support.

Analysis: Bitcoin Rebound Not Confirmed as Bull Market Start, On-Chain Structure Still Lacks Bottom Signals

: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the Digital Asset Market Structure Act of 2025 on May 14.

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking will hold a markup session for H.R.3633, the “Digital Asset Markets Structure Act of 2025,” at 10:30 a.m. ET on May 14. Committee members will vote on the bill’s text and related amendments. If approved, the Banking Committee’s version will be merged with the portion overseen by the Senate Committee on Agriculture to form the final version, which will then proceed to a full Senate vote.

Coinbase Executive: CLARITY Crypto Market Structure Bill Could Be Reviewed as Early as Next Week

, Coinbase Vice President of US Policy Kara Calvert stated at the Consensus 2026 conference that the CLARITY crypto market structure bill could be reviewed by the US Senate Banking Committee as early as next week. Kara Calvert noted that the bill requires at least 60 votes to pass in the Senate, and parties are currently working to secure bipartisan support.A HarrisX survey shows that 70% of voters believe the US should enact clear cryptocurrency legislation. Additionally, Kara Calvert believes that the lack of a cohesive tax policy is a major barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, as current tax rules require crypto exchanges to record transactions as small as $1. She expressed hope that tax reform legislation could make progress in 2026 and predicted that the House of Representatives might take action on related legislation within the next month or two.

Senator Gillibrand: The cryptocurrency regulatory bill will not pass without an ethics provision.

According to The Block, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand stated clearly on Wednesday at the Consensus Miami conference that she would not support the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act unless it includes an ethics provision. She emphasized that members of Congress, the President, the Vice President, and senior executive branch officials must not profit from the industry by virtue of their insider status, bluntly declaring, “Without this provision, corruption will destroy this industry.” Previously, before the presidential inauguration, both Donald Trump and his wife launched meme coins. Their family-led DeFi and stablecoin project, World Liberty Financial, has also sparked widespread controversy. Bloomberg estimates that Trump has already earned at least $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency-related businesses.