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Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill—the Clarity Act—has seen no significant public progress over the past month and is not expected to achieve a breakthrough in April. The report notes that if the bill is to pass before the election, May 25—Memorial Day—is viewed as a critical milestone for advancement; after that date, members of Congress will gradually shift into campaign mode, leaving less time for legislative work. At present, it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will move forward with related hearings. Issues such as stablecoin yields and other outstanding matters have also yet to be publicly resolved. Even if these disagreements are addressed, the House of Representatives would still need to vote on the bill again.
Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News Analyst Markus Thielen stated that the Bitcoin demand structure is gradually repairing. He pointed out that strategic holdings continue to increase, providing stable buying support, the Coinbase Premium has rebounded, and the single-day net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs once reached $664 million, the highest level since mid-January.He believes that corporate capital, ETF inflows, and U.S. spot demand are forming a combined force, coupled with the return of stablecoin capital, market liquidity is gradually improving. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's price may enter a new consolidation range. If the related trends continue, the probability of an upward move has increased, but the price action may still be dominated by consolidation.
According to analyst Markus Thielen, Bitcoin’s demand structure is gradually recovering. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues its accumulation, providing steady buying support; the Coinbase Premium is rising steadily; and spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of $664 million—the highest level since mid-January. Corporate treasury purchases, ETF inflows, and U.S. spot demand are converging, while stablecoin liquidity continues flowing back into the ecosystem—collectively strengthening liquidity support. Analysts note that the market may be forming a new consolidation range; if these trends persist, the probability of price advancing toward the upper bound of this range is increasing—though the move will not be linear.
According to The Block, Thom Tillis, a Republican Senator from North Carolina and a key negotiator on the Senate Banking Committee, stated that the committee does not expect to schedule hearings to revise and vote on the crypto market structure bill within April. The primary legislative disagreement currently centers on how to handle rewards associated with stablecoins: the current draft proposes banning rewards for idle stablecoin accounts while permitting returns generated from trading activity. Banking representatives fear such returns could draw deposits away from traditional banks, whereas crypto firms argue that restricting rewards would stifle innovation. Tillis suggested postponing the committee’s review to May. Previously, Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the bill fails to pass before May, “digital asset legislation will stall indefinitely.”
Odaily News According to Odaily, as geopolitical tensions eased and inflationary pressures subsided, market risk appetite showed a significant recovery over the past week, with oil prices falling and the VIX declining. BTC is currently fluctuating around $75,000. On the capital front, institutional buying has regained dominance, with both BTC ETF and ETH ETF recording net inflows. In terms of trading structure, capital is concentrating towards high-liquidity assets and leading platforms, trading in macro high-volatility assets like crude oil remains active, while stablecoins and the DeFi ecosystem are also undergoing synchronous repair.Against this backdrop, Gate's institutional trading performance continues to improve, with spot and derivatives trading overall outperforming the market, and derivatives maintaining industry leadership. With the iteration of market maker fee rates and assessment mechanisms, the activity of mid-tier clients has increased, further improving the trading structure. CrossEx trading volume and capital deposits have reached new highs, and collaboration with asset management and OTC Loan services is accelerating. In terms of capital business, demand for mainstream assets like ETH and USDT has rebounded, and the gradual implementation of AI customer service is enhancing institutional service efficiency.Simultaneously, Gate's multi-asset trading system continues to meet institutional demand. The platform covers multiple asset classes including metals, stocks, indices, forex, and commodities, with related derivatives trading remaining active. Leveraging the SuperLink architecture and cross-venue capital scheduling capabilities, Gate continues to provide institutions with more flexible trading and risk management tools.