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The Bitfinex Alpha report notes that Bitcoin held its $59,200 low after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week to close at $65,655. This rally stems more from exhaustion of selling pressure than from new demand: open interest in futures has declined significantly from its May highs; short-term holders have been selling at a loss; and exchange balances have dropped to a seven-year low—indicating the market has entered a phase of deleveraging and release of selling pressure. Short-term holders remain broadly underwater by approximately 17%–19%, suggesting substantial potential overhead supply remains.
Despite Bitcoin bouncing after falling below $60,000, several market analysts believe this is more likely a technical correction following an oversold condition rather than the start of a new bull market.Analysts at HEX Trust stated that the market has entered an oversold territory. If US inflation data cools and the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs slows down, Bitcoin could see further upside. However, a true trend reversal depends on the market’s ability to firmly reclaim the $79,000 to $80,000 range. Until then, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective rally within a bear market.Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, is relatively more optimistic. He believes that if Bitcoin can rebound to around $68,000, it could be considered a valid recovery from the downtrend observed between May 11 and June 5.Data shows that the net cumulative outflow from the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks has exceeded $5 billion. On Monday alone, another $91 million flowed out. Analysts point out that ETF fund flows remain one of the key factors determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.Additionally, the market is closely watching US inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday. If the inflation figure comes in lower than expected, it could help ease market concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market currently expects the US inflation rate for May to remain above 4%, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. (CoinDesk)
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin's volatility and correlation are increasingly approaching the level of gold. This trend has been significantly underestimated during the current market adjustment and may be a positive signal amid recent market turbulence. Based on the 60-day historical volatility comparison data of IBIT and the gold ETF (GLD) since their launch, Bitcoin's volatility structure is gradually converging with gold, indicating that its asset characteristics may be changing.Eric Balchunas added that despite the volatile market environment, the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) has continued to outperform U.S. stocks since the escalation of the Iran conflict and has achieved more than double the excess returns compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since the approval of BlackRock's ETFs.
Investment bank TD Cowen stated that as the relevant political environment continues to deteriorate, the likelihood of the US crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," passing this year is declining.TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out that while the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill earlier this month, this does not signify a substantive bipartisan agreement; rather, it merely pushes the controversy to the full Senate floor.The report indicated that the escalating controversies surrounding US President Donald Trump and his administration related to crypto in recent days are making it harder for Democrats to support the bill. If the bill does not include clear conflict-of-interest provisions, it will face even greater difficulty in gaining sufficient support in the current political environment.
: Analyst Murphy posted on X platform, stating that based on the relationship between the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP)" and price action, Bitcoin may currently be in the formation stage of a bottom structure.Murphy pointed out that previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by BTC breaking through and trading around the 1-3m_RP cost basis line, but the patterns differed across cycles: In 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around this cost basis line for an extended period; in 2019-2020, it directly triggered a mini bull run after the breakout; in 2022-2023, it experienced a second retest to confirm support before rebounding again.Murphy stated that since BTC broke through this cost basis line on April 15, it has continued to trade above it. Regarding future trends, he believes the focus is not on predicting specific scenarios, but rather on preparing position and trading response plans for different market situations in advance.
Wintermute released its weekly market analysis, covering the week ending May 11. During this period, BTC broke above $80,000 for the first time since January, peaking near $83,000 and decisively crossing its 200-day moving average—a resistance level that had held for seven months. However, Wintermute noted that this rally was primarily leveraged-driven: open interest surged by $10 billion month-on-month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low—classic hallmarks of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Funding rates remain skewed bearish, indicating further short-covering potential in the near term; yet covering shorts does not equate to genuine bullish consensus. Looking at medium- to long-term fundamentals, institutional buying logic remains intact: BTC ETFs posted $623 million in net inflows for the week; Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month with zero net outflows on any single day; and BTC reserves held on exchanges remain at a seven-year low. Nevertheless, Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if spot buying fails to materialize after the squeeze concludes, prices face significant risk of a rapid correction. On the macro front, the Nasdaq rose 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week—both hitting all-time highs. Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations (115,000 vs. forecast 65,000). U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed, with Iran demanding sovereignty recognition and reparations—terms rejected by Trump. Oil prices swung violently between $88 and $113 per barrel during the week, yet equity markets reacted indifferently. Key events to watch this week:
: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill—the Clarity Act—has seen no significant public progress over the past month and is not expected to achieve a breakthrough in April. The report notes that if the bill is to pass before the election, May 25—Memorial Day—is viewed as a critical milestone for advancement; after that date, members of Congress will gradually shift into campaign mode, leaving less time for legislative work. At present, it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will move forward with related hearings. Issues such as stablecoin yields and other outstanding matters have also yet to be publicly resolved. Even if these disagreements are addressed, the House of Representatives would still need to vote on the bill again.
Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News Analyst Markus Thielen stated that the Bitcoin demand structure is gradually repairing. He pointed out that strategic holdings continue to increase, providing stable buying support, the Coinbase Premium has rebounded, and the single-day net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs once reached $664 million, the highest level since mid-January.He believes that corporate capital, ETF inflows, and U.S. spot demand are forming a combined force, coupled with the return of stablecoin capital, market liquidity is gradually improving. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's price may enter a new consolidation range. If the related trends continue, the probability of an upward move has increased, but the price action may still be dominated by consolidation.
According to analyst Markus Thielen, Bitcoin’s demand structure is gradually recovering. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues its accumulation, providing steady buying support; the Coinbase Premium is rising steadily; and spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of $664 million—the highest level since mid-January. Corporate treasury purchases, ETF inflows, and U.S. spot demand are converging, while stablecoin liquidity continues flowing back into the ecosystem—collectively strengthening liquidity support. Analysts note that the market may be forming a new consolidation range; if these trends persist, the probability of price advancing toward the upper bound of this range is increasing—though the move will not be linear.
According to The Block, Thom Tillis, a Republican Senator from North Carolina and a key negotiator on the Senate Banking Committee, stated that the committee does not expect to schedule hearings to revise and vote on the crypto market structure bill within April. The primary legislative disagreement currently centers on how to handle rewards associated with stablecoins: the current draft proposes banning rewards for idle stablecoin accounts while permitting returns generated from trading activity. Banking representatives fear such returns could draw deposits away from traditional banks, whereas crypto firms argue that restricting rewards would stifle innovation. Tillis suggested postponing the committee’s review to May. Previously, Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the bill fails to pass before May, “digital asset legislation will stall indefinitely.”
Odaily News According to Odaily, as geopolitical tensions eased and inflationary pressures subsided, market risk appetite showed a significant recovery over the past week, with oil prices falling and the VIX declining. BTC is currently fluctuating around $75,000. On the capital front, institutional buying has regained dominance, with both BTC ETF and ETH ETF recording net inflows. In terms of trading structure, capital is concentrating towards high-liquidity assets and leading platforms, trading in macro high-volatility assets like crude oil remains active, while stablecoins and the DeFi ecosystem are also undergoing synchronous repair.Against this backdrop, Gate's institutional trading performance continues to improve, with spot and derivatives trading overall outperforming the market, and derivatives maintaining industry leadership. With the iteration of market maker fee rates and assessment mechanisms, the activity of mid-tier clients has increased, further improving the trading structure. CrossEx trading volume and capital deposits have reached new highs, and collaboration with asset management and OTC Loan services is accelerating. In terms of capital business, demand for mainstream assets like ETH and USDT has rebounded, and the gradual implementation of AI customer service is enhancing institutional service efficiency.Simultaneously, Gate's multi-asset trading system continues to meet institutional demand. The platform covers multiple asset classes including metals, stocks, indices, forex, and commodities, with related derivatives trading remaining active. Leveraging the SuperLink architecture and cross-venue capital scheduling capabilities, Gate continues to provide institutions with more flexible trading and risk management tools.