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Grayscale: Strategy’s Bitcoin Sales Amplify Market Volatility, Future Accumulation Capacity May Be Limited

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale Research, stated that the market experienced a new wave of volatility following Strategy's disclosure on June 1st of selling 32 Bitcoin. Although the sale is negligible compared to its holdings of approximately 840,000 Bitcoin (worth about $55 billion), this rare reduction move still impacted market sentiment.Pandl pointed out that the more noteworthy development is the performance of Strategy’s Variable Rate Preferred Stock STRC (Stretch). The product has a design target price of around $100 and currently offers a dividend yield of 11.5%. When the stock price falls below $100, it indicates that investors are demanding a higher rate of return, which may force the company to increase dividend levels. This would increase future cash flow pressure and potentially compel it to sell more Bitcoin for fundraising, further weighing on BTC prices. Strategy's leveraged Bitcoin reserve model is facing challenges. At current STRC and MSTR share price levels, the company's ability to continue large-scale Bitcoin accumulation may be constrained.However, Pandl noted that in the long term, the migration of Bitcoin holdings from highly leveraged digital asset reserve companies to more diversified corporate balance sheets will help enhance market resilience and improve Bitcoin's long-term value support. He expects Bitcoin to resume its upward trend in the coming months, but its near-term performance may lag behind crypto asset sectors that benefit more directly from regulatory clarity.

PeckShield: The stablecoin apxUSD, backed by STRC as collateral, has de-pegged, dropping to approximately $0.94.

According to on-chain analyst PeckShield (@PeckShieldAlert), as the BTC price fell to approximately $63,000, the stablecoin apxUSD—backed by STRC as collateral—de-pegged, with its current price dropping to around $0.94, a decline of roughly 4.6%.

PeckShield: Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC triggered a brief depeg of sUSDat

According to on-chain analyst PeckShield (@PeckShieldAlert), Strategy sold 32 BTC (average price: $77,135, totaling approximately $2.5 million—0.0038% of its 843,000-BTC holdings) for capital allocation, and concurrently sold 801,994 common shares, raising roughly $128.3 million. This move symbolically broke its “never sell” principle, triggering market volatility: sUSDat—a staked stablecoin fully backed by digital credit (STRC)—briefly dropped nearly 7% to below $0.93 before rebounding to $0.98.

BIT: Strategy Small-Scale BTC Sales Break the “Buy-Only, Never-Sell” Narrative, Shifting Market Expectations Subtly

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Strategy’s recent small-scale Bitcoin sale following its May earnings call was interpreted by the market as a test of market reaction and the flexibility of its capital allocation strategy. Analysts noted that while Strategy remains highly bullish on Bitcoin, the success and expansion of its STRC preferred stock financing instrument may take precedence in its overall financial arrangements. This move breaks the company’s “buy-only, never-sell” market image maintained for nearly six years; given Strategy’s strong influence on Bitcoin demand, this shift is quietly reshaping market expectations.

TD Cowen Sees STRC Financing Boosting BTC Yield, Raises Strategy Price Target

investment bank TD Cowen on Thursday raised its price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $395 from $385, believing the market underestimates the capital efficiency of the company’s bitcoin accumulation strategy following its increased issuance of STRC perpetual preferred stock. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete indicated that the new target still implies over 110% upside from Strategy’s Wednesday closing price of $186.82.The analysis notes that Strategy is gradually reducing common equity financing and increasingly relying on STRC perpetual preferred stock, which yields 11.5%, to fund bitcoin purchases. STRC is also a core component of Michael Saylor’s “42/42 plan,” which aims to raise $42 billion each through equity and fixed-income instruments over three years.TD Cowen believes the market underestimates the effect of the STRC structure on boosting “BTC Yield,” a metric measuring the company’s growth in bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share. The report raised its BTC Yield forecast for Strategy’s fiscal 2026 to 18.2% from 16.7%, and for 2027 to 9.6% from 5.4%. Additionally, analysts argue that concerns about Strategy being a “perpetual dilution machine” are exaggerated. The company’s annual preferred stock dividend payments, currently around $1.5 billion, represent only about 2.2% of the value of its 818,334 BTC reserve.In TD Cowen’s base case scenario, bitcoin is expected to reach $140,000 by the end of 2026. In a bull case, bitcoin could rise to $175,000, with Strategy potentially purchasing over $5 billion in bitcoin per quarter. (The Block)

Strategy's BTC Holdings Market Cap Surpasses $65 Billion, Q1 Earnings Expected This Week

Odaily Strategy founder Michael Saylor posted on X yesterday stating that the company will suspend its routine weekly Bitcoin purchase plan this week, marking the second time this year it has paused weekly accumulation.To date, Strategy holds a total of 818,334 BTC, representing approximately 3.9% of Bitcoin's total supply. Data from Saylortracker shows that as Bitcoin staged a strong rebound today, breaking through the $80,000 mark, the total market value of BTC held by Strategy has returned to above $65 billion, currently standing at $65.74 billion. The average cost price is $75,537, with an unrealized profit of $3.926 billion.Strategy is expected to announce its Q1 earnings on Tuesday, with the market anticipating a loss per share of $18.98, higher than the loss of $16.38 per share in the same period last year. Its ongoing coin purchases are primarily financed through stock (MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock. Among these, the high-dividend product STRC (annualized yield approximately 11.5%) has raised concerns among some analysts regarding structural risks, though others argue that this model can convert yield demands into long-term Bitcoin exposure. (The Block)

Benchmark refutes "circular financing" allegations: Strategy STRC bitcoin model is not a Ponzi structure

market分歧 has widened regarding Strategy's financing model of continuously accumulating Bitcoin through its preferred stock STRC. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer stated in his latest report that the interpretation of the STRC model as a "circular financing or Ponzi structure" is a "serious misreading" and emphasized that the mechanism is an "intentionally designed and sustainable capital framework," with the core logic being to convert market demand for yield into long-term Bitcoin exposure.According to an SEC 8-K filing, Strategy raised approximately $3.5 billion in the first three weeks of April, with over 85% coming from STRC issuance. Subsequently, it made three consecutive purchases within the following three weeks, acquiring a total of 51,364 Bitcoins worth approximately $3.9 billion. Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings have now increased to 818,334 BTC, with a market value of around $62.5 billion, and it has recently returned to an unrealized profit of about $700 million.Benchmark believes that this structure does not rely on continuous issuance to sustain itself and could even sell a portion of its Bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends if necessary. However, significant market skepticism remains, with some arguing that selling financed assets to pay dividends could be perceived as a risk signal, potentially triggering broader market pressure. (The Block)

Saturn spends $17 million to increase STRC position, total holdings rise to approximately $50 million

Saturn, a developer of on-chain yield stablecoins, announced it has purchased approximately $17 million worth of shares related to STRC, Strategy's perpetual preferred stock, over the past three days. Its total holdings have now increased to about $50 million. Analysts believe that Saturn's continued accumulation reflects long-term confidence in STRC's asset structure and yield mechanism, further strengthening its asset allocation within the on-chain yield stablecoin strategy.

Bernstein: Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Will Be Longer, Institutional Capital and Stablecoin Demand Drive Rally

Odaily Bernstein stated in a research report that the cryptocurrency market is currently showing signs of fundamental strengthening. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has formed a bottom near $60,000 and is now advancing toward the $80,000 mark. Institutional capital inflows, MicroStrategy's continued accumulation of Bitcoin through STRC products, and the deep integration of blockchain with financial infrastructure collectively create an asymmetric upside potential.Bernstein emphasized that new distribution channels from Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot trading platform have broadened participation. Currently, approximately 60% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in over a year, with institutional demand reinforcing its holding base. Additionally, stablecoin supply has reached a record high of $300 billion, with its payment and settlement demand decoupling from market sentiment. The tokenized real-world asset sector has grown 110% year-over-year to $345 billion. Although quantum computing poses a long-term risk, analysts believe the industry has ample time to undergo a secure transition.

Bernstein: Cryptocurrency Market Shows Structural Strength; Bitcoin Poised to Enter a Longer-Term Bull Market

According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. Bitcoin’s recent low of $60,000 has formed a clear bottom, and with the current price approaching $80,000, a longer-term structural bull market is likely, driven by institutional demand. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani highlighted the following key drivers: • Ongoing expansion of institutional channels: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab’s spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have both recently launched; approximately 60% of Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for over one year, indicating a stabilizing holder structure; • Persistent accumulation by Strategy: Its STRC perpetual preferred stock product has attracted yield-oriented investors, and its current holdings stand at 818,334 BTC; • Stablecoin demand hits an all-time high: Stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the crypto market’s price cycle and reflecting sustained real-world payment and settlement demand; • Tokenized real-world assets accelerating growth: Tokenized private credit and Treasury assets now total $34.5 billion, representing a 110% year-on-year increase. Bernstein also cautioned that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, though it expects the blockchain ecosystem to have ample time to complete the transition to post-quantum security.