News linked to both this project and an event.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will officially launch a Robotaxi service in California before December 31, 2026."If Tesla officially offers an autonomous taxi service to the public in California before the end of 2026 that does not require continuous human driver intervention, it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No."Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and Robotaxi布局, but regional progress shows clear divergence. Currently, in parts of the U.S. (such as Texas), it has already conducted more aggressive unmanned mobility tests and planning, while in the California market, it remains primarily constrained by a stricter regulatory framework. The California DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous driving operations, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety operator requirements, and commercial passenger permits.At present, Tesla's operations in California are mainly limited to supervised autonomous driving features (FSD Supervised) and have not obtained a commercial Robotaxi license for fully unmanned operations. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely considered by the market to be prioritized for deployment in regions with more lenient regulations, leaving California's progress with high uncertainty.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing takes place.
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the "Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting" has dropped to 18.1%, while the probability of "maintaining the current interest rate" has risen to 81%. The total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.The market currently widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the US CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, and energy prices have surged due to tensions in the Middle East, keeping inflationary pressures alive, after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at the June meeting, the market is leaning towards waiting for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path. Key economic indicators to be released on July 14, including the US June CPI data, as well as employment and wage figures, will be important variables influencing the outcome of the July meeting.The Odaily Seer Prophets Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26" has dropped to 41%, down 16% in 24 hours.Due to US government export controls imposed on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9.Latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pledging closer collaboration with the White House and working to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful "Mythos" and "Fable" models.Sources familiar with the matter say that during ongoing remediation negotiations, Anthropic has committed to resolving any security issues more quickly in the future, though there is currently no exact timeline for a complete resolution. Another insider stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Head of Public Policy Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Trump administration officials. Representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for "SpaceX Starship First Launch Date from Florida."To date, all integrated test flights of Starship have been conducted at Starbase in Texas. SpaceX is currently building Starship launch and manufacturing facilities in Florida, including a Starship launch tower at Kennedy Space Center's LC-39A, and renovation work at Cape Canaveral's SLC-37. Relevant projects still require regulatory approval, environmental assessments, and infrastructure construction.SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated in a CNBC interview in June 2026 that the company expects Starship Flight 13 to launch in about a month and plans to gradually achieve a monthly Starship launch cadence. She also mentioned that future missions could include Starship's first-ever launch from Florida.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to follow the prediction market—seeing changes before pricing.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for the opening price range of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.SpaceX is scheduled to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 (U.S. time). According to its compliance filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, the official IPO price has been set at $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Although the offering price has been determined, institutional oversubscription orders are reportedly exceeding $10 billion, fueling market expectations for a premium from the "first-day pop." However, given the high valuation multiple of 90 times price-to-sales and intense competition in the rocket launch market, the first-day opening premium may be relatively moderate. Under the event's settlement rules, the market will strictly settle based on the official opening price of SpaceX on its first trading day on the primary exchange. If the final opening price falls exactly at the boundary between two ranges, the higher range will be used for settlement.Odaily Seer remains focused on prediction markets. See the change before the price is set.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Anthropic to IPO before September 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 30%, a 24-hour decline of 37%. Additionally, the probability of "Anthropic to IPO before December 31" is currently reported at 89%.On June 1, Anthropic announced that it had confidentially submitted a U.S. IPO application, moving ahead of competitor OpenAI in the listing process. In a statement, Anthropic said filing the prospectus "gives us the right to choose to go public after the SEC completes its review" and emphasized that "the proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors."According to media reports, Anthropic's listing could be as early as this fall, but it has not disclosed the offering size or terms.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction market titled "June world is peaceful and uneventful." Currently, the probability of something major happening (Something) stands at 14%, while the probability of nothing happening (Nothing) is reported at 86%.Traders believe there is an 86% likelihood that the market will see "no major progress" in June, as no significant diplomatic or policy breakthroughs appear imminent in the initial weeks.If any of the following conditions are met between the market creation and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (US):- WTI crude oil price breaks through $150;- The U.S. confirms the existence of extraterrestrials;- The Federal Reserve decides on any policy adjustments in June;- A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine;- Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile.Then the market will be settled as "Something"; otherwise, it will be settled as "Nothing."Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing the changes before prices are set.
The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has listed a new prediction event: "Will the U.S. federal government officially issue a $250 bill featuring Donald Trump’s portrait before December 31, 2026?"U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on May 28 that the official design for a $250 bill featuring President Trump’s portrait is ready, in anticipation of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. However, actual progress on the plan is currently blocked by stalled legislative procedures in Congress. According to H.R. 1761, introduced as early as February 2025, issuing this currency requires amending the Federal Reserve Act to authorize the new denomination and to waive the long-standing legal restriction prohibiting portraits of living individuals on U.S. currency. As the bill remains stuck in the House Financial Services Committee, with no substantial floor vote or progress in the Senate, the probability of completing legislation and printing the bill within the remainder of this year is low.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market—see the changes before the price is set.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in Polymarket's prediction event "Will the US confirm the existence of aliens before 2027?", a new account purchased $61,000 on the outcome that the US will not confirm the existence of aliens before 2027, with an opening price of 83¢.Public documents primarily involve records of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) sightings and investigations, but have not officially confirmed the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology. The All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has previously denied claims by some whistleblowers regarding the government's secret possession of alien technology, including related testimony from David Grusch in 2023.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Channel, the probability of "Walsh confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15" on Polymarket has risen from 27% to 85%, surging 211% in the short term.The reason is that the U.S. Department of Justice is expected to drop the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Previously, Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, stated that if Trump does not withdraw the criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Powell, he would block Walsh's nomination for Fed Chair from reaching a full Senate vote.Under the influence of the news that the DOJ will drop the criminal investigation into Powell, the market now expects a very high likelihood of Walsh being confirmed by the Senate as Fed Chair before Powell's term expires (May 15).The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets — seeing changes before prices are set.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Anthropic, developer of Claude, next funding round deadline." The current probability of completion before the end of June is temporarily quoted at 22%; the probability before the end of December is temporarily quoted at 81%.The contract rules for this event are: If the specified company publicly and formally announces the completion of its next funding round before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." Eligible announcements must clearly confirm the completion of the new funding round, which can be through official announcements from the specified company (e.g., press release) or its investors, regulatory filings, or consensus from credible media reports. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. If the specified company is unable to complete a new funding round due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by another entity, the market will be settled as "No." The primary settlement sources for this market will be official announcements from the specified company and official company documents, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Magic advancing to the NBA playoffs" on Polymarket has dropped to 39%, down 30% in 24 hours. Yesterday, the Magic lost to the 76ers with a score of 97 to 109 and will compete with the Hornets tomorrow morning at 7:30 for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. Additionally, Hornets star LaMelo Ball was fined $35,000 for pulling Adebayo during the game against the Heat and was assessed a Flagrant Foul 2, but did not receive a suspension. Furthermore, Ball was fined $25,000 for using profanity in a post-game interview, resulting in a total fine of $60,000.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that although Powell's term as Chair ends on May 15th, the probability on Polymarket of Powell stepping down as Fed Chair after his term expires (May 14th) is only 2%, indicating Powell is likely to continue serving as the Fed's interim Chair.The key to whether Powell can continue as Fed Chair after his term expires lies in whether Kevin Walsh, Trump's chosen successor, can secure Congressional confirmation at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on April 21st. Powell previously stated that if a successor is not confirmed by May, he will serve as interim Chair.Therefore, the market is indirectly betting that Walsh will struggle to gain Congressional approval by April 21st or even before May 15th. The reason is that North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis is obstructing this appointment, stating he will not advance any Fed nominee's process until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into Powell.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.