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Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Holdings Reach New All-Time High of 16.3 Million, But Average Unrealized Profit Remains Low

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH, those holding coins for over 6 months) have reached a new all-time high, currently exceeding 16.3 million BTC. Their average cost basis is approximately $49,400, yielding only about 30% in unrealized profit at the current price, which is relatively low. In comparison, the net unrealized profit for long-term holders reached as high as approximately 340% in January 2025.Darkfost also noted that towards the end of the last bear market, long-term holders were collectively in a state of approximately 20% unrealized loss, and the market ultimately experienced a deeper correction. This suggests that the market could still see further corrections in the future, potentially pushing long-term holders back into loss territory. However, this is not necessarily a guaranteed repetition of historical patterns. He advises investors to prepare for both market rallies and corrections.

"First Set 10 Big Goals" Whale's BTC Long Unrealized Profit Could Reach $5.15 Million

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, as BTC breaks through $66,000, the unrealized profit on the BTC long position of the "Set 10 Big Goals First" whale @Jason60704294 may expand to $5.15 million. The average entry price is $63,827.06, with an estimated position of approximately 2,358.05 BTC (approximately $150 million).

BONK Governance Attacker Transfers Another 400 Billion BONK to Coinbase, Cumulative CEX Inflows Reach 1.626 Trillion

According to monitoring by Yu Jin, the address that previously transferred BONK worth $21.2 million from the Bonk treasury through a governance proposal, after moving 1.186 trillion BONK (approximately $4.11 million) to Binance yesterday, has today transferred another 400 billion BONK (worth about $1.28 million) to Coinbase.Data shows that of the 4.426 trillion BONK removed from the Bonk treasury via the governance proposal by this address, 1.626 trillion BONK (approximately $5.58 million) have been moved to centralized exchanges. Additionally, in the 11 days since the address began withdrawing assets from the Bonk treasury, the price of BONK has fallen by approximately 36%, dropping from $0.0000047 to $0.000003.

Citrini Analyst: SK Hynix Operating Profit Expected to Reach 60.4 Trillion KRW, 8% Below Market Consensus

Odaily news, Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform, stating that local South Korean brokerages expect SK Hynix's operating profit to reach 60.4 trillion KRW, a 61% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 556% increase year-over-year, but still 8% below the market consensus of 65 trillion KRW. The shortfall is mainly due to SK Hynix's higher proportion of HBM revenue compared to its peers, resulting in its average selling price growth being lower than the market average.

ByteDance's AI Capital Expenditure Raised, Data Center and AI Infrastructure Investment May Reach $70 Billion in 2026

Odaily, Trader @nft_hu posted on X platform stating that ByteDance's AI capital expenditure has recently been significantly raised. According to the latest reports, ByteDance is discussing investing up to approximately $70 billion in capital expenditure for data centers and AI infrastructure in 2026, with part of the funds coming from its estimated $50 billion profit in 2025; in a more aggressive internal plan, there has also been discussion about further increasing capital expenditure in 2027 to a magnitude of $89 billion to $100 billion.

Multicoin: HYPE Could Reach $319 by 2028

Multicoin has published a report stating that the market is severely underestimating the value of Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE, and believes it still has over 400% upside potential in the coming years. The firm estimates that, in a base case scenario, HYPE's price could reach approximately $319 by 2028.Multicoin believes the current market is too narrowly viewing Hyperliquid as a fast-growing decentralized perpetual contract exchange, when in reality it is evolving into an "Everything Exchange" covering multiple assets and trading scenarios.The report states that at the current price of around $63, HYPE is clearly mispriced. Multicoin estimates that by 2028, Hyperliquid's annualized profits could reach approximately $80 billion. Valued at a 20x earnings multiple, this would correspond to a HYPE price of around $319.Multicoin also disclosed that it has been actively buying HYPE since February of this year, and HYPE has become one of the largest holdings in its liquid hedge fund. Recently, HYPE broke through $76 to hit an all-time high, driven by positive catalysts such as ETF inflows, strong protocol revenue, and aggressive buyback plans. It subsequently pulled back with the broader market and was trading around $62.47 as of Thursday afternoon.

“Brother Maji” Suffers Partial Liquidation Again on 25x Long ETH Position; Cumulative Losses Reach ~$35 Million

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), “Brother Maji” has again suffered partial liquidations amid the market downturn; most of his 25x-leveraged long ETH position has been closed, resulting in cumulative losses of approximately $35 million so far.

“Set 10 Big Goals First” Trader Exits BTC Long Position at Stop Loss, Maximum Loss May Reach $5.467 Million

according to monitoring by crypto analyst Ai Yi @ai_9684xtpa, trader Jason60704294 has closed his BTC long position at a stop loss near $66,000.Based on different position sizes, if his actual holding is the previously disclosed 281.789 BTC long position (valued at approximately $19.09 million), the loss from this trade is about $500,000; if his actual position is 3,076.88 BTC (valued at approximately $208 million), the stop-loss loss from this trade is approximately $5.467 million.

Whale Associated with ShapeShift Adds $12.78M in ETH in 8 Hours, Total Holdings Reach $278M

according to Onchain Lens monitoring, an address labeled as the "ShapeShift Mystery Whale" purchased 6,688 ETH, valued at approximately $12.78 million, in the past 8 hours.Data shows that the address currently holds a total of 149,286 ETH, worth approximately $278 million at current prices. Onchain Lens stated that the address may continue to increase its ETH holdings in the future.

Bitcoin Whale Activity Hits 6-Week High, Large Transactions Over $100,000 Reach Highest Since April 22

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to Santiment data, Bitcoin whale activity has reached its highest level in six weeks, with the number of large transactions exceeding $100,000 hitting a new high since April 22, when the BTC price dropped to $70,011.

Analysis: Model Predicts BTC Could Reach $255,000 This Year; Long-Term Valuation Range Upgraded to $308,000

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has declined approximately 40% from its all-time high in October 2025, yet long-term valuation models indicate substantial upside potential remains. Based on the “Bitcoin Decay Channel” measurement of long-term trends, Bitcoin’s conservative year-end price range has been revised upward to $90,000–$255,000, with the high-end scenario reaching as high as $255,000. This model fits a logarithmic decay trend to historical cycle highs and lows, showing that BTC prices at the peaks of the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles all approached the upper channel boundary, while bear market bottoms fell near the lower boundary. Analyst Sminston stated that Bitcoin remains within a historic, long-term upward channel and noted that the price range for 2027 could further expand to $128,000–$308,000.

VanEck: Digital Credit Market Could Reach $2.5 Trillion in the Next Decade, BTC May Hit $1 Million

Odaily Odaily, analysts at VanEck, which manages $200 billion in assets, said Matthew Sigel, said the digital credit market could expand to $2.5 trillion over the next decade, while the price of BTC is expected to reach $1 million. Matthew Sigel said the target is "absolutely within reach." (BitcoinTreasuries.NET)

JPMorgan: Strategy's Bitcoin Purchases Could Reach $30 Billion This Year

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor, has been accelerating its Bitcoin acquisitions this year. JPMorgan analysts stated that if the current pace continues, the company's total Bitcoin purchases for the year could reach approximately $30 billion. So far this year, Strategy has added 145,834 Bitcoin to its holdings, valued at around $11 billion. Analysis indicates that a significant portion of the company's purchases occurred when Bitcoin was below its average cost of roughly $75,000, reflecting a more "opportunistic" allocation strategy.At the current rate, Strategy's total Bitcoin purchases in 2026 could significantly exceed the approximately $22 billion levels seen in 2024 and 2025. Analysts noted that the company has re-accelerated its buying since April, suggesting its strategy is becoming more dependent on market conditions and financing availability. Meanwhile, Strategy's stock continues to trade at a premium of approximately 26% to its net asset value (NAV), providing favorable conditions for the company to continue purchasing Bitcoin through equity and debt financing. The company currently holds approximately 818,334 BTC, with a total value exceeding $65 billion. (The Block)

Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week | U.S.-Iran Tensions Reach a Critical Juncture; Nonfarm Payrolls Data Unlikely to Break Gold’s Stalemate

According to JIN10, U.S. President Trump criticized Tehran’s leadership for lacking unity, which he said is hindering agreement on ending the nine-week conflict that has triggered a global energy crisis. He stated that “Iran’s requests are ones I cannot accept,” though some traders interpreted this as a negotiating tactic rather than an abandonment of peace efforts. Investors will be watching for a new batch of U.S. corporate earnings reports and U.S. employment data. Below are the key market focus points for the coming week: Tuesday, 00:50: John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a permanent voting member of the FOMC, delivers a speech; Tuesday, 22:00: U.S. April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and U.S. March JOLTS Job Openings; Wednesday, 20:15: U.S. April ADP Employment Change; Wednesday, 21:30: Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and an FOMC voter in 2028, speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy; Thursday, 01:00: Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and an FOMC voter in 2027, participates in a panel discussion at a conference; Thursday, 19:30: U.S. April Challenger Job Cuts; Friday, 02:05: Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and an FOMC voter in 2026, delivers a speech; Friday, 03:30: John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a permanent voting member of the FOMC, delivers a speech; Friday, 22:00: U.S. May one-year inflation expectation (preliminary), U.S. May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary), and U.S. March wholesale sales (month-on-month). Forecasters expect the April nonfarm payrolls report—due next Friday—to show solid job growth.