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Wintermute’s weekly market report indicates Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and briefly touched around $83,000, while also reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally is clearly more driven by leveraged capital rather than spot buying.The report notes that over the past month, Bitcoin open interest increased by approximately $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low, a classic short squeeze scenario. Although ETFs still recorded net inflows of $623 million and BTC reserves on exchanges fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered overbought territory. If spot buying fails to sustain after the short squeeze ends, BTC prices could face a rapid correction risk.Wintermute also stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the strength of US equities and the resonance of leverage, rather than an independent bull market narrative. Upcoming US CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will be key factors in determining whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000.
According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market weakened overall on Friday, with BTC hovering near $77,800—its upward momentum since Wednesday’s rally from $65,000 notably slowing. ETH traded at $2,300, down approximately 0.8% over the past 24 hours, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stems primarily from two sources: First, Japan’s March Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.1% year-on-year—above expectations—and core inflation accelerated, raising market expectations that the Bank of Japan may signal an interest rate hike at its next policy meeting; a stronger yen could trigger unwinding of global risk-asset carry trades. Second, the ongoing Iran conflict continues disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude futures have surged over 40% since the outbreak of hostilities, reaching $96 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Defense warned that mine clearance will take at least six months, implying persistent global inflationary pressures and further constraining the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates.