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on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market could increase further.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the beginning of April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." Currently, the short-term holder profitability indicator has remained above 1, suggesting that the market has been in a phase of continuous profit-taking since mid-April.The analysis suggests that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to materialize.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.
Odaily Bernstein stated in a research report that the cryptocurrency market is currently showing signs of fundamental strengthening. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has formed a bottom near $60,000 and is now advancing toward the $80,000 mark. Institutional capital inflows, MicroStrategy's continued accumulation of Bitcoin through STRC products, and the deep integration of blockchain with financial infrastructure collectively create an asymmetric upside potential.Bernstein emphasized that new distribution channels from Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot trading platform have broadened participation. Currently, approximately 60% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in over a year, with institutional demand reinforcing its holding base. Additionally, stablecoin supply has reached a record high of $300 billion, with its payment and settlement demand decoupling from market sentiment. The tokenized real-world asset sector has grown 110% year-over-year to $345 billion. Although quantum computing poses a long-term risk, analysts believe the industry has ample time to undergo a secure transition.
Odaily News Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC today that retail investors will become the primary fuel for the next wave of stock market gains. He believes that many retail investors missed the rebound during the previous war-related sell-off. Now, as panic subsides, they will re-enter the market, providing significant buying power and driving the stock market higher. Therefore, with the trend of retail capital flowing back and sustained corporate earnings growth, investors may experience "one of the best periods of their lives" in the next 18-24 months.
Odaily News CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing increasing risks of selling pressure, with on-chain data showing a significant rise in funds flowing into exchanges.Bitcoin previously broke through $76,000 but faced downward pressure and retreated when approaching the key resistance zone around $76,800. This level corresponds to the "on-chain realized price" range, which has historically often acted as a top for rallies, as many investors whose holdings are nearing breakeven tend to sell.Data shows that the hourly inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has risen to approximately 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late 2025, which is typically viewed as a potential signal of selling pressure. Simultaneously, the scale of transfers into exchanges by large holders (whales) is also expanding.Analysis suggests that if this resistance level remains effective, Bitcoin may face short-term correction pressure, with a key support level around $67,600.
According to QCP Group analysis, BTC rebounded overnight alongside risk assets, rising back into the mid-$74,000 range, triggered by news of an initial U.S.-Iran framework agreement. However, long-end yields barely moved, gold held near highs, and bond markets failed to follow—indicating this rally reflects headline-driven risk alleviation rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution. The core dispute centers on uranium enrichment: Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. To date, Iran has issued no signals of compromise—a standoff unresolved since 2015. From a crypto market-structure perspective, BTC spot prices rose gradually amid negative funding rates and low open interest, suggesting short sellers remain resistant and are fueling a short squeeze. Yet options markets have not confirmed the breakout: short-term at-the-money (ATM) volatility remains near 40, and one-month implied volatility still sits below three-month volatility—highlighting stronger demand for downside protection than for upside momentum chasing. On the macro front, the Fed’s net rate-cutting room for this year has nearly vanished, and liquidity conditions remain relatively tight. QCP views this rally as fundamentally a geopolitically driven relief bounce—not a structural shift in the macro landscape—and warns markets to remain vigilant against pullback risks following the rebound.