News linked to both this project and an event.
According to QCP Capital's market observation report, the Federal Reserve maintained the policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% with a 10-2 vote at its October meeting. Fed Chair Walsh declined to commit to a path of rate cuts or hikes for December and beyond, reiterating his opposition to forward guidance. The Fed also announced that one meeting in 2027 and two meetings in 2028 will not feature interest rate votes, serving only as discussions on policy strategy. QCP observed that fewer decision points mean more economic data will accumulate between rate decisions, potentially increasing rate volatility and pushing up term premiums. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also held rates steady, while markets still expect both central banks to potentially raise rates in December. The ECB stated that prior inflation data did not trigger second-round effects, while the BoJ announced that inflation has reached its 2% target. In the tech sector, shares of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Intel declined following earnings releases, as markets expressed concerns over corporate profitability and future capital expenditures, growing increasingly cautious regarding the pace and returns of investments in AI infrastructure.
According to the market briefing released by QCP Capital (QCP Market Colour), US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month, with market expectations at 3.6% and 0.6%, respectively. Core CPI increased 2.6% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts on both metrics. Despite the resilient inflation data, US Treasury yields retreated significantly. During the prior week, yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries briefly spiked to 5.35% and 5.73%, respectively, before capital flowed into long-dated Treasuries as a safe haven, reversing the reflation trade that had previously dominated the market. QCP noted that this risk-off sentiment was primarily driven by credit stress in the AI infrastructure sector. AI compute provider CoreWeave closed down 15.5% on the day, and its five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widened to 60%, prompting declines in the NASDAQ and South Korea’s KOSPI indices. Separately, MSCI introduced a new “non-operating company” classification framework this week, which may impact whether certain securities retain their place in the index and trigger forced redemptions from passive funds. Consequently, the index inclusion status of Strategy (MSTR) remains uncertain. QCP argued that credit quality within the technology sector is now displacing inflation and fiscal concerns as the primary constraint on risk appetite. With the tech earnings season commencing in approximately two weeks, the upcoming period will serve as a critical benchmark for determining whether AI-related credit risks could spill over into broader asset classes.
QCP Capital 发布的市场周报，美联储主席 Warsh 在杰克逊霍尔发言后，9 月加息概率一度从 35% 升至 70%，BTC 单日下跌约 2.5%，ETF 连续 9 日净流入后录得 2.02 亿美元净流出。但此后美元未能维持鹰派定价，DXY 回落至 99.5 下方，黄金、白银及 BTC 均收复失地。 财政部方面，9 月 9 日将启动首次长端流动性支持操作，购买上限提升至至少 40 亿美元（此前为 20 亿美元）。8 月 30 年期国债拍卖收益率报 5.216%，为 2001 年以来最高，市场将密切关注该操作能否有效改善长端流动性。 通胀层面，7 月 PCE 报 3.7%（核心 3.3%），CPI 报 3.4%（核心 2.5%），布伦特原油因霍尔木兹海峡袭击及卡塔尔 LNG 不可抗力事件单周涨约 10%，通胀压力持续。Waller 表示若未来两周数据延续当前趋势，将支持暂停加息，叠加 ADP 就业数据仅 3.8 万（为 1 月以来最弱），9 月加息概率已回落至 45–50%。
QCP Capital stated that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but as three committee members supported a rate hike and Chairman Warsh downplayed explicit forward guidance, the overall stance was hawkish. The market briefly reassessed the interest rate path; U.S. stocks fell after the rate decision was announced, then rebounded driven by corporate earnings, with Microsoft leading the gains; Bitcoin also briefly weakened around the meeting, before stabilizing near $64,000.
QCP Capital 发布报告指出，本周市场最明显的特征是“分歧”：在原油、利率、中国经济和加密货币资金面等领域，表面叙事与底层基本面出现明显背离。加密货币方面，Strategy 调整了融资路径，通过股权融资提升美元储备，而未动用其比特币持仓。
QCP Capital released its latest report stating that the decline in Japanese government bond yields has eased market concerns over the unwinding of yen carry trades and capital repatriation, driving Bitcoin to rebound to around $64,000.
据 QCP Capital 于 6 月 10 日发布的市场报告，当前跨资产抛售由多重因素共振驱动：一是地缘政治层面，美伊军事冲突升级、霍尔木兹海峡通行前景不明，市场同步定价军事风险与能源中断风险；二是宏观层面，上周强于预期的非农数据重燃通胀担忧，市场对美联储 2026 年加息概率的预期明显上升，当日发布的 CPI 数据（市场预期 headline 通胀高于 4.2%）成为最大宏观变量，若再度超预期将进一步强化鹰派路径；三是 AI 交易层面，Oracle 财报面临高预期与低容错的双重压力，Broadcom 上周的市场反应已发出警示，任何前瞻指引或利润率的失望均可能拖累股市。加密市场与上述风险情绪高度联动，在 CPI 与 Oracle 财报落地前，市场料将维持脆弱、对消息面高度敏感的状态。
According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.