News linked to both this project and an event.
According to The Block, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani lowered Circle (CRCL)'s price target from $190 to $140, but maintained an "Outperform" rating, implying approximately 118% upside potential compared to the current stock price of $64.32. Bernstein expects Circle's Q2 performance to be essentially flat, with USDC supply decreasing from $77 billion at the end of Q1 to $73 billion. Regarding market concerns over the competitive threat from the Open USD alliance, Bernstein believes its cohesion is insufficient; Visa also stated it will maintain a multi-currency, multi-chain strategy and will not bet on a single winner. Additionally, the profit-sharing agreement between Circle and Hyperliquid is expected to transfer approximately $190 million in reserve yield annually to the latter, with the full impact to be reflected in Q3. Bernstein also lowered its end-of-2026 USDC supply forecast by 37% to $83 billion, but remains long-term bullish on Circle capturing approximately 30% share of the global stablecoin market by 2035.
: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on July 29. The market widely expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. Data from CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hold is between 95% and 98%. TD Securities stated that traders are still overestimating the probability of a surprise rate hike, and the related pricing includes a risk premium due to the Iran situation. The institution believes that if the Fed holds rates steady as expected, the deviation between current market pricing and actual policy action will narrow. TD Securities predicts that if the Fed keeps rates unchanged for an extended period, the dollar could fall by about 2% in the second half of 2026. The institution believes that the Fed needs to see clearer evidence of sustained inflation and a strong labor market before considering a rate hike.
Mizuho analysts stated that if the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," is passed, while it may generally benefit the digital asset industry, the long-term impact on Circle could be negative. The reason is that regulatory clarity will attract more large institutions into the stablecoin market, further accelerating stablecoin commodification and eroding the revenue potential of Circle's USDC.Mizuho believes that the primary pressure Circle faces in the near term comes from Open USD. This stablecoin project is backed by a coalition of over 140 financial, technology, and crypto companies, with members including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase. Unlike Circle's model, which retains approximately 38% of USDC reserve yields, Open USD employs a "pass-through" model, distributing nearly all reserve yields to distribution partners while retaining only a small management fee.Analysts also noted that Coinbase, as the largest distributor of USDC, also supports Open USD. This could give Coinbase stronger bargaining power when renegotiating its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle in the future. The distribution agreement between the two parties could be up for renegotiation as early as next month.
AVE has now fully integrated Hyperliquid on-chain contract trading across its mobile app, TG Bot, and PC client, providing users with a more convenient and multi-scenario on-chain contract trading experience.On the occasion of this feature upgrade, AVE is launching the "AVE x Hyperliquid Contract Upgrade Benefits" event, inviting all users to actively participate and share in rewards of up to 12,000U.Event Period: July 16, 2026, 18:00 – July 26, 2026, 23:59 (UTC+8)Two Core Rewards:Open Orders to Share Up to 4,000UUsers who deposit and have a cumulative margin of at least 20 USDT for opening positions will share a 2,000U prize pool. If the number of eligible users exceeds 500, the prize pool doubles to 4,000U.Trading Leaderboard to Share Up to 8,000UUsers with a cumulative trading volume of 20,000U are eligible to participate in the ranking. The top 100 will share the prize pool according to the rules. The base prize pool is 3,000U, increasing with the total trading volume of the event, up to a maximum of 8,000U.Eligible trades will be automatically included in the statistics. Both rewards can be earned simultaneously.Welcome all users to participate in Hyperliquid on-chain contract trading. Trade more, earn more rewards, and collectively unlock a bigger prize pool.Note: This event is subject to the final interpretation rights of Ave.ai. All trading records are uploaded to the blockchain in real-time, ensuring the ranking data is tamper-proof.
analyst KawzInvests stated that Moonshot AI's upcoming Kimi K3 could become a significant event in the open-source AI space, and the infrastructure demand behind it may drive growth for AI cloud service platforms. Kimi K3 has approximately 2.8 trillion parameters, making it one of the ultra-large-scale open-source models. According to Moonshot's official evaluation, the model's performance is only slightly behind frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 Sol, and the full model weights are expected to be released on July 27.KawzInvests pointed out that a model of this scale cannot run on an ordinary laptop or even a single server; users need a computing cluster composed of a large number of GPUs to complete model loading and inference. When top-tier open-source models are made available for free, the biggest beneficiaries might not be ordinary users, but rather platforms that offer model hosting and inference services. For example, $DOCN (DigitalOcean) already supports serverless inference services for models like Kimi K2.6. Developers do not need to deploy hardware; they can call the model via API and pay per Token. Additionally, the platform hosts over 70 models and covers GPU leasing, model fine-tuning, and AI Agent development tools.As more large-scale open-source models are released, developers' demand for low-barrier AI infrastructure will continue to increase. Model hosting, inference services, and GPU cloud platforms may become key beneficiaries in the open-source AI wave.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.5 billion in June, marking their worst monthly performance since their launch in January 2024. Bitcoin fell 20.48% in June, hitting a 21-month low of $58,190 on July 1. Citi has lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000, following a previous reduction from $143,000 on March 17. Citi also cut its 12-month Ethereum price target from $3,175 to $2,240. Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins between May 26 and 31, worth approximately $2.5 million, its first sale since December 2022. As of May 31, it held 843,706 Bitcoins, with the board approving a framework for selling up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin. Open interest in leveraged Bitcoin futures fell from around $31.3 billion around May 30 to about $21.6 billion in early June. Within two weeks, major holders increased their holdings by over 270,000 Bitcoins.
According to CoinDesk, Japanese investment bank Mizuho has downgraded stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) from "Neutral" to "Underperform," with the price target significantly lowered from $85 to $50. Circle's stock price subsequently fell 0.6% to $62.63. Mizuho analysts pointed out that the OpenUSD stablecoin launched by the Open Standard consortium on June 30 poses a fundamental threat to Circle's business model. Unlike the USDC model, which retains most reserve yield and then shares it with partners such as Coinbase and Binance, OpenUSD charges only a small operating fee and distributes the vast majority of reserve yield to issuers and distributors, which may force Circle's partners to demand a higher revenue share. The consortium has assembled over 140 partners, including Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and BlackRock.
According to The Block, Mizuho Bank analysts noted that while Circle's approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank helps enhance its compliance credibility, it is insufficient to resolve current core pressures—the continued shrinkage of USDC market cap and increasingly fierce competition from Open USD—which still constitute a significant drag on $CRCL stock price.
data shows XRP open interest has fallen from approximately $1.3 billion to below $150 million. Network and institutional-related indicators are improving, with daily active addresses rising about 72% from mid-June. On June 29, the XRP spot ETF recorded $15.34 million in inflows. (CoinDesk)
after Open Standard announced the launch of its new stablecoin, Open USD (OUSD), Circle's stock price fell over 16% on Tuesday. The stablecoin is backed by over 140 companies, including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, and Coinbase, raising market concerns that it could pose competitive pressure on Circle's USDC.However, William Blair analysts believe the sell-off was an overreaction and reiterated an "Outperform" rating on Circle's stock, suggesting the decline may present a buying opportunity. The firm believes that Circle holds a competitive advantage in the stablecoin space due to its first-mover status, deep liquidity, and mature payment infrastructure, positioning it well even against high-profile competitors like OUSD.Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated that the company welcomes competition and will continue to expand the USDC ecosystem. Analysts also noted that the overall stablecoin market is still rapidly expanding, and new entrants may not necessarily only eat into USDC's market share but could also drive broader industry adoption.
According to Amr Taha, a CryptoQuant analyst, following the release of U.S. April CPI data—which came in higher than expected—Bitcoin derivatives markets witnessed synchronized risk reduction. Open interest across four major exchanges—Binance, Gate.io, Bybit, and OKX—collectively declined by approximately $1.25 billion. Gate.io saw the largest drop, at roughly $578 million; Binance followed with about $473 million; Bybit and OKX declined by approximately $123 million and $75 million, respectively. This synchronized contraction across multiple platforms indicates that the deleveraging was not an isolated incident confined to a single exchange, but rather a broad, market-wide defensive response to macroeconomic data. Analysts note that the decline in open interest may stem from long-position liquidations, short-covering, or proactive leverage reduction—and should not be interpreted in isolation as a definitive bearish signal. However, large-scale, synchronized open interest contraction triggered by macro catalysts typically signals that derivatives traders are rapidly adjusting their risk exposure.
Wintermute’s weekly market report indicates Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and briefly touched around $83,000, while also reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally is clearly more driven by leveraged capital rather than spot buying.The report notes that over the past month, Bitcoin open interest increased by approximately $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low, a classic short squeeze scenario. Although ETFs still recorded net inflows of $623 million and BTC reserves on exchanges fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered overbought territory. If spot buying fails to sustain after the short squeeze ends, BTC prices could face a rapid correction risk.Wintermute also stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the strength of US equities and the resonance of leverage, rather than an independent bull market narrative. Upcoming US CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will be key factors in determining whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000.
according to official sources, OKX Agent Trade Kit has launched the "Smart Money Signal Suite," which integrates the real-time positions, win rates, and profit/loss data of over 1,000 popular traders from OKX Star and packages them as signal tools callable by AI Agents. This suite supports long/short market analysis and allows for multi-dimensional analysis including capital weighting, trader screening, and signal quality evaluation. Additionally, the system can track trend changes and sentiment shifts, providing auxiliary support for trading decisions. These features have been integrated into the Agent Trade Kit, and users can access them after upgrading to the latest version.It is reported that OKX Agent Trade Kit is an open-source exchange MCP toolset designed for AI Agents and professional traders. It previously launched suites such as "Skill Square," "Market Screening and Open Interest Analysis," and "Sentiment Radar."
according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, since the afternoon of April 23, Binance's contract open interest has risen from 2.31 billion to a peak of 3.23 billion DOGE, an increase of 920 million DOGE, approximately $100 million, representing a growth rate of 39.8%. During the same period, the token's price only rose by a maximum of 5%.
crypto analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that by combining three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective is as follows: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level above BTC’s current price. This level simultaneously features high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV. When the price pushes upward from this point, market makers' dynamic hedging tends to create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers' hedging adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + the magnitude of positive Gamma) makes $80,000 a "tough nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC) at this level, the market could quickly shift from being suppressed to an "amplified volatility" mode.
According to Cointelegraph, Ethereum’s price has stabilized above $2,300 following a recent rebound, while ETH futures open interest has risen to $2.54 billion—indicating growing demand for leveraged positions. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $248 million over the past 10 days, and Bitmine Immersion disclosed its purchase of $312 million worth of ETH. However, ETH perpetual contract funding rates have failed to sustain levels above 5% and have repeatedly dipped below zero—suggesting limited market confidence in this rally. Additionally, weekly DApp revenue on Ethereum has declined from $24 million in early February to $11 million, with weakening network activity and intensifying competition among public blockchains potentially continuing to weigh on ETH’s price trajectory.