News linked to both this project and an event.
QCP Capital 发布的市场周报，美联储主席 Warsh 在杰克逊霍尔发言后，9 月加息概率一度从 35% 升至 70%，BTC 单日下跌约 2.5%，ETF 连续 9 日净流入后录得 2.02 亿美元净流出。但此后美元未能维持鹰派定价，DXY 回落至 99.5 下方，黄金、白银及 BTC 均收复失地。 财政部方面，9 月 9 日将启动首次长端流动性支持操作，购买上限提升至至少 40 亿美元（此前为 20 亿美元）。8 月 30 年期国债拍卖收益率报 5.216%，为 2001 年以来最高，市场将密切关注该操作能否有效改善长端流动性。 通胀层面，7 月 PCE 报 3.7%（核心 3.3%），CPI 报 3.4%（核心 2.5%），布伦特原油因霍尔木兹海峡袭击及卡塔尔 LNG 不可抗力事件单周涨约 10%，通胀压力持续。Waller 表示若未来两周数据延续当前趋势，将支持暂停加息，叠加 ADP 就业数据仅 3.8 万（为 1 月以来最弱），9 月加息概率已回落至 45–50%。
Last week, major assets closed higher across the board: July Non-Farm Payrolls -23k severely dampened rate hike expectations, the USD broke below 100, and Gold and Crypto benefited in tandem. BTC/ETH ETF weekly net inflows were $853M/$245M, the third-largest institutional buying week of the year. Core risk this week: 8/12 CPI (08:30 ET), determining the direction of September rate hike expectations. Strategy advances on three fronts: Sell ETH weekly expiry $1,800 P (annualized ~15-20%), Sell HYPE 1D $52 P (annualized ~70%, newly listed on Bybit), Sell XAUT 1D $4,360 C (annualized ~30-60%). All three positions must be reduced to safe levels before CPI.
on-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on X platform, stating that NFP's 24-hour contract trading volume has entered the ranking. Starting from yesterday afternoon, NFP rose from $0.004412 to $0.04391 within 13 hours, a gain of 895%, leading to short position liquidations; within 6 hours early this morning, it dropped 82.36%, causing long position liquidations. After both long and short positions were liquidated, OI has shrunk 90% from its short-term high.
Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that all four directional predictions for this week were fulfilled: BTC hit a low of $59,130—surpassing the prior target range of $65,000–$67,000. Opening last week at $73,760 and plunging to $59,130, BTC recorded its largest single-week decline since the FTX collapse (roughly −20%). It has since rebounded to $63,000. Three bearish catalysts recently converged: stronger-than-expected NFP data reigniting rate-hike expectations; SpaceX’s IPO siphoning liquidity; and Strategy selling BTC for the first time in four years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record net outflow of $1.7 billion for the week. ETH’s daily RSI plunged to a historic low of 12.78, while BTC’s daily RSI dropped to 15.45—raising the probability of a technical rebound, though trend reversal remains unconfirmed. DVOL surged from its historical low of 35 to 55 before retreating to 48; put options have already been profitably closed. Currently, chasing long positions is discouraged. BTC faces significant resistance between $63,000 and $65,000. Entry should await either the June 10 CPI release or DVOL falling back to 40—or until BTC convincingly closes above $65,000.