Bernstein: AI Liquid Cooling Market to Triple in 4 Years, Cold Plate Commoditization Risk High
According to TechFlow Research, Bernstein's July 5 report pointed out that cold plates are the only components in liquid cooling systems that contact the chip, with a single GB200 NVL72 cabinet requiring 108 units. The cold plate market is approximately $2-3 billion in 2026, expected to be $6-7 billion in the base case scenario in 2030, with a 4-year CAGR of approximately 20-30%. The NVIDIA Rubin architecture has confirmed 100% liquid cooling, without fans. Cold plates are replaced upon failure, involving no maintenance services, and hardware gross margins face compression. Bernstein believes that between 2028-2030 cold plate designs will converge, with a high risk of commoditization, and longer term faces potential substitution by silicon-based microchannel etching technology. Outperform targets: VRT (target price $416), NVT ($218), ETN ($534), SBGSY ($310), TT ($550), JCI ($176); CARR target price $75 is in line with the market.
