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Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.
Hyperliquid has recently significantly outperformed the broader market. Its token, HYPE, hit an all-time high following the launch of two related ETFs in the United States. Meanwhile, European traders are accelerating their migration to the platform due to restricted access to perpetual contracts on regulated exchanges. Market analyst Michael van de Poppe stated that with Hyperliquid's continued rally and renewed interest in AI-related crypto projects, signs of improving risk appetite are emerging in the altcoin market. Hyperliquid’s expansion into tokenized stocks, commodities, and pre-IPO assets is strengthening the on-chain asset tokenization trend. He suggested that if market sentiment continues to improve, HYPE’s price could target $100 or even higher.However, Michael van de Poppe also stressed that while Hyperliquid holds a short-term advantage, Solana offers greater long-term investment certainty, transitioning from a "speculative ecosystem" to institutional-grade infrastructure. In the AI track, he noted that NEAR Protocol and Bittensor remain significantly undervalued, citing a disconnect between their fundamental growth and valuations. He pointed out that NEAR’s revenue growth potential and Bittensor’s subnet expansion could support higher valuation ranges. Additionally, he indicated that the privacy sector retains long-term demand, but fully anonymous systems face regulatory pressure. The future is more likely to be dominated by zero-knowledge proofs and compliant privacy solutions.On the macro level, Michael van de Poppe highlighted that bond yields and central bank policies remain the core drivers of the crypto market, with changes in Japanese government bond yields potentially serving as a key barometer. (CoinDesk)