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Arthur Hayes: Rising Oil Prices, AI-Related IPOs, and Trump's Anti-AI Rhetoric Could Pop the AI Bubble and Drag Down the Crypto Market

Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.

ZachXBT accuses Arthur Hayes of using fans as "exit liquidity"

ZachXBT posted a message questioning BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes about how much exit liquidity he created by utilizing his fans over the past few days.Within two weeks, Arthur Hayes publicly promoted and then liquidated four tokens: NEAR, HYPE, ZEC, and WLD. In response, Arthur Hayes stated that he sold to willing buyers at specific prices and noted that this time he successfully achieved his trading goals. (cryptopolitan)

Whale Loracle's long positions suffer total loss of $6.65 million, with ZEC long position losing over $3.2 million

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, as ZEC and HYPE continue to decline, whale Loracle's 10x leveraged long position in ZEC has suffered losses exceeding $3.2 million, and the 2x leveraged long position in HYPE has lost $1.567 million. The whale also holds long positions in NEAR, TON, ASTER, and XMR, with total losses amounting to $6.65 million.

Bankless co-founder discloses entry costs for some portfolio tokens: NEAR ~$1.40, HYPE ~$45

Odaily Odaily News: Bankless co-founder David Hoffman responded to investors by disclosing his entry costs for four major tokens: NEAR, HYPE, ZEC, and LIT. Among them, the entry price for NEAR was approximately $1.40, HYPE around $45, ZEC about $560, and LIT approximately $1.35. According to previous reports, after liquidating his ETH holdings, the founder split the capital allocation, deploying 50% of the principal into VVV, NEAR, ZEC, and HYPE. The remaining 50% was kept for periodic dollar-cost averaging, with the subsequent funds fully used to purchase LIT.

Arthur Hayes Liquidates HYPE and NEAR, Selling Over $18 Million

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) has fully liquidated his HYPE and NEAR holdings, selling a total of 247,334 HYPE tokens—valued at approximately $18.02 million—as well as an undisclosed amount of NEAR. Notably, this sale occurred shortly after Arthur Hayes publicly entered a bet with Kyle Samani regarding HYPE’s performance by year-end: Hayes claimed HYPE would outperform all top-ten cryptocurrencies, while Samani bet on SOL; the wager involved a $100,000 charitable donation.

Arthur Hayes:已清仓HYPE和NEAR持仓,将于下周二解释原因

Arthur Hayes 在 X 平台发文表示,他已清仓全部 HYPE 和 NEAR 持仓,并将在下周二发布的文章“Reality Test”中解释原因。Arthur Hayes 称,伊朗战争和库存补充将推高能源价格;当前至第三季度初之间将有 3 家大型 AI 企业 IPO;预测特朗普将为帮助共和党赢得中期选举而转向反 AI;其认为市场高点将在当前至 9 月之间出现;现在是止盈的时候,可以在无需担心持仓的情况下抽身。

Bankless co-founder sells all ETH to buy VVV, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, and LIT

Bankless co-founder David Hoffman posted on platform X, stating that after selling his ETH, he immediately allocated approximately 50% of the capital to VVV, NEAR, ZEC, and HYPE, and used the remaining funds for dollar-cost averaging into projects that have not yet seen significant price increases (NEAR was priced at around $1.40 at the time). He added that the remaining 50% of the capital has completed its position building in LIT.

Analyst: HYPE and AI Tokens May Lead the Next Altcoin Season as Market Risk Appetite Returns

Hyperliquid has recently significantly outperformed the broader market. Its token, HYPE, hit an all-time high following the launch of two related ETFs in the United States. Meanwhile, European traders are accelerating their migration to the platform due to restricted access to perpetual contracts on regulated exchanges. Market analyst Michael van de Poppe stated that with Hyperliquid's continued rally and renewed interest in AI-related crypto projects, signs of improving risk appetite are emerging in the altcoin market. Hyperliquid’s expansion into tokenized stocks, commodities, and pre-IPO assets is strengthening the on-chain asset tokenization trend. He suggested that if market sentiment continues to improve, HYPE’s price could target $100 or even higher.However, Michael van de Poppe also stressed that while Hyperliquid holds a short-term advantage, Solana offers greater long-term investment certainty, transitioning from a "speculative ecosystem" to institutional-grade infrastructure. In the AI track, he noted that NEAR Protocol and Bittensor remain significantly undervalued, citing a disconnect between their fundamental growth and valuations. He pointed out that NEAR’s revenue growth potential and Bittensor’s subnet expansion could support higher valuation ranges. Additionally, he indicated that the privacy sector retains long-term demand, but fully anonymous systems face regulatory pressure. The future is more likely to be dominated by zero-knowledge proofs and compliant privacy solutions.On the macro level, Michael van de Poppe highlighted that bond yields and central bank policies remain the core drivers of the crypto market, with changes in Japanese government bond yields potentially serving as a key barometer. (CoinDesk)

A certain account shorted 28 altcoins and CL crude oil, with total profits of $86.36 million but currently facing an unrealized loss of $4.06 million

according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, an account that shorted a basket of altcoins has realized total profits of $86.36 million. Currently, its 29 short positions face a floating loss of $4.06 million. The shorts include 28 altcoins such as ZEC, TON, NEAR, and LIT, as well as CL crude oil, with a total position value of $47.66 million, and the account is still increasing its positions.

A whale has gone long on altcoins including NEAR, STRK, XMR, TON, with total position value exceeding $16 million<odaiy-translate-split><p>Odaily Planet Daily News According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale has taken long positions on several popular al

据 Lookonchain 监测,某巨鲸做多多个热门山寨币,包括 NEAR、STRK、XMR、TON、AZTEC、PUMP。当前持仓包括:308 万枚 NEAR(483 万美元)、7555 万枚 STRK(430 万美元)、9561 枚 XMR(380 万美元)、128 万枚 TON(333 万美元)、1486 万枚 AZTEC(35.7 万美元)、7199 万枚 PUMP(14.7 万美元)。