News linked to both this project and an event.
Moonshot AI employee Randy responded on X platform to White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios’ remarks regarding Moonshot AI using Anthropic’s Fable to distill and develop the K3 model. He stated that Fable made its public debut on July 1, while K3 was launched on July 15. The team trained a brand-new frontier model in just 15 days, a feat worthy of a Guinness World Record.
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that on Polymarket, for the event "Will the US government ban open-source AI models in 2026?", the "Yes" probability is currently at 16%.According to the resolution rules, if the US federal government, before December 31, 2026, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal policy actions, restricts the US public's access or use of a specific open-source AI model, the market outcome will be resolved as "Yes." Otherwise, the market outcome will be resolved as "No." Eligible open-source AI models refer to general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundation models whose model weights and source code are publicly downloadable and can be run on hardware under user control, such as Meta Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen, etc.Recently, the open-source Kimi K3 model launched by Moonshot AI has drawn market attention to whether it will impact closed-source AI. OpenAI's Director of Strategy, Dean W. Ball, stated on X platform that the US government might adopt soft legal measures to prevent open-source models from entering the US. David Sacks, Chairman of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, believes that using regulatory uncertainty to suppress open-source competition is "unacceptable."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
According to PR Newswire, MoonPay has officially launched MoonPay Headless Onramps—the industry’s first native crypto checkout platform enabling one-click crypto purchases via Apple Pay, credit cards, and Google Pay across the U.S., the European Economic Area, and over 100 countries worldwide. In contrast, competing headless payment solutions currently support mobile payments only within the U.S. This product replaces MoonPay’s branded widget with a pure API integration, enabling partners to deliver a fully white-labeled and highly customizable checkout experience—while MoonPay handles payment processing, compliance, and identity verification in the background. Launch partners include Moonshot, Bitcoin.com, Bread, and Trust Wallet. Notably, Apple Pay is now fully embedded into partner apps for the first time: verified users can complete purchases with a single tap—no redirects or re-verification required.
The immediate trigger for this regulatory tightening was Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of Manus—a China-founded AI agent company—after which relevant authorities ordered the deal’s reversal and launched a systematic review of the “domestically operated, offshore-registered” corporate model. Dismantling a red-chip structure is procedurally complex, typically taking six months to one year and involving multiple steps—including repurchasing offshore equity, establishing a joint venture, and having investors re-invest. Moreover, shares of such joint ventures listed in Hong Kong are subject to a 12-month lock-up period—twice as long as that for ordinary red-chip stocks. Analysts note that if red-chip structures face comprehensive restrictions, Chinese startups’ ability to raise U.S. dollar funding from overseas will be significantly weakened.
: Following the halt of the acquisition plan for AI agent company Manus, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has tightened its review of red-chip structure enterprises seeking Hong Kong IPOs. Several AI companies planning to go public have begun evaluating the dismantling of their overseas structures and a return to domestic entities. Moonshot AI is currently in communication with lawyers regarding structural reorganization, but has not yet made a final decision. Stepfun has already initiated the process of dismantling its overseas holding structure, believing that transitioning to a domestic entity will help shorten the approval cycle. DeepRoute.ai is also conducting a similar evaluation. Industry insiders point out that dismantling a red-chip structure typically takes 6 to 12 months, involving processes such as equity buybacks, establishing joint venture entities, and tax handling. Currently, regulators have not issued a comprehensive ban, but have been inquiring about the overseas holding situations of relevant companies. (The Information)