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Trader Killa: Bitcoin Has Successfully Withstood Multiple Bearish Factors, Market Resilience May Signal Bull Market Characteristics

Trader Killa posted that despite the market facing multiple bearish factors—including the Fed's hawkish decision, rising oil prices, hotter-than-expected CPI data, surging global bond yields, a stronger dollar, the Ledger wallet hack, and market concerns over Strategy (MSTR)'s delisting risk and its pivot to AI—Bitcoin has still maintained range-bound trading. Given the current macroeconomic pressures and negative news, Bitcoin should have fallen below $70,000, but its resilience is noteworthy. The market may be gradually forming a significant interim bottom, and its ability to hold the price range amid bearish shocks indicates that it is absorbing negative news, which is also a typical characteristic of a bull market.

Related funds hold nearly $1.8 billion in MSTR, Strategy faces potential removal from MSCI indices

Odaily reports: Market analyst Murphy posted on X that MSCI officially approved new rules on October 15 to exclude non-operating companies that do not meet standards from its global investable market indices. Strategy had already been placed on the proposed removal list in a prior simulated screening, with the final results to be announced on November 11 and effective on November 30. Related index funds hold approximately 13 million shares of MSTR, valued at nearly $1.8 billion, equivalent to 60% of its 30-day average daily trading volume.Murphy stated that Strategy's core logic lies in driving growth in net Bitcoin per share through capital operations, and whether it can sustain this depends on market premiums and the extent of their contraction. MSTR's future performance depends on three variables: Bitcoin price, net Bitcoin per share, and mNAV; as of market close on October 16, its mNAV stood at 1.08x.

CryptoQuant CEO: MSCI exclusion risk is already priced into the stock, and multiple institutions remain bullish on MSTR.

CryptoQuant Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X that analysts are not overly concerned about MSCI's decision, and overall market sentiment toward MSTR remains bullish. Target prices from Citibank, Barclays, and B. Riley are $240, $175, and $195 respectively, all recently raised with none lowered. He believes the impact of the MSCI exclusion is primarily limited to index-related fund flows, which have already been reflected in the stock price. What warrants attention now is Strategy's mNAV (the ratio of market capitalization to the value of its held Bitcoin) hovering around 1.0x, its perpetual preferred stock STRC trading at par, and the company's $3.75 billion in reserve funds, which are sufficient to cover dividend payments.

Capital Outflows Could Reach $8.8 Billion as MSCI Plans to Remove Strategy and Other Bitcoin Treasury Companies from Global Equity Indexes

Bitcoin News posted on X that MSCI is advancing a proposed methodology that would classify Michael Saylor's Strategy, Japan's Metaplanet, and other digital asset treasury companies as "non-operating" enterprises, potentially excluding them from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes. JPMorgan estimates that passive funds tracking MSCI indexes may be forced to sell $2.8 billion worth of MSTR shares; if other index providers adopt similar rules, the broader capital outflow could reach $8.8 billion. Strategy's reverse analysis shows that MSCI-tracking funds hold approximately 3.1% of its outstanding shares; a final decision is expected around October 16, with implementation potentially beginning on November 30.

"Set 10 Big Goals First": Bitcoin Firmly Holds at $80,000, Targeting $100,000

Odaily News According to a post by whale "Set 10 Big Goals First" on platform X, Bitcoin has firmly established support at $80,000 and is now targeting $100,000, calling it the "last chance to get on board." Based on the chart shared, crypto-related stocks and ETFs such as IBIT, CRCL, and MSTR saw significant gains today.

Michael Saylor Calls for Advancing "Bitcoin Reform," Supporting Institutional Expansion and Custody Options

According to Bitcoin.com, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy (MSTR), introduced the concept of "Bitcoin Reformation" in a published article, arguing that Bitcoin should move beyond dogmatic interpretations of early tenets such as Satoshi Nakamoto, the whitepaper, and the "must self-custody" principle, and further integrate into banking, exchanges, corporate sectors, securities markets, and government systems. Saylor stated that while self-custody remains an essential right allowing holders to freely opt out of intermediary systems, it should not be imposed as a mandatory obligation on everyone; users can also evaluate institutional services based on criteria such as custody segregation, collateral, audits, insurance, and withdrawal rights. He believes that Bitcoin has gradually evolved from a peer-to-peer electronic cash system and "digital gold" into "digital capital" capable of supporting credit, equity, currency, and machine economies.

Strategy Bitcoin holdings show an unrealized loss of $9.904 billion, while Bitmine Ethereum holdings show an unrealized loss of $8.513 billion

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) currently holds 840,447 BTC ($53.452 billion), with an average cost of $75,385, showing an unrealized loss of $9.904 billion (-15.6%).Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) purchased 9,926 ETH ($18.77 million) last week at approximately $1,891 per token. They now hold a total of 5,815,164 ETH ($11.06 billion), with an average cost of $3,366, showing an unrealized loss of $8.513 billion (-43.5%).

Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Show Unrealized Loss of $10.829 Billion, Bitmine Ethereum Holdings Show Unrealized Loss of $8.871 Billion

Odaily News, according to on-chain analyst Ember's monitoring, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) last week sold 1,638 BTC ($105 million) at an average price of approximately $63,957, realizing a loss. They now hold a total of 842,138 BTC ($52.684 billion) with an average cost of $75,419, representing an unrealized loss of $10.829 billion (-17%).Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) last week purchased 10,399 ETH ($19.85 million) at an average price of approximately $1,909. They now hold a total of 5,797,813 ETH ($10.674 billion) with an average cost of $3,371, representing an unrealized loss of $8.871 billion (-45.4%).

The Netherlands' fifth-largest asset manager Robeco increases its stake in Strategy by 11%, with holdings reaching $13.1 million

BitcoinTreasuries.NET posted on platform X, stating that the Netherlands' fifth-largest asset manager, Robeco, has disclosed an 11% increase in its holdings of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR). The total holdings now stand at 133,755 shares, valued at $13.1 million. Institutional capital is flowing into BTC through treasury companies.

Strategy's Bitcoin holdings now showing $9.05B unrealized loss, Bitmine's Ethereum holdings show $8.643B unrealized loss

according to on-chain analyst Yujin's monitoring, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) now holds a total of 843,775 BTC ($54.634 billion), with an average cost price of $75,476, and an unrealized loss of $9.05 billion (-14.2%). Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) purchased 7,430 ETH ($13.68 million) last week at approximately $1,842 each. They now hold a total of 5,777,468 ETH ($10.861 billion), with an average cost price of $3,376, and an unrealized loss of $8.643 billion (-44.3%).

NYDIG: Leverage Rather Than Spot Demand Drives Bitcoin, Value and Momentum Buyers Still on the Sidelines

According to the NYDIG research report (Author: Greg Cipolaro, July 10, 2026), Bitcoin fell 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with year-to-date losses expanding to 32.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 27.7% and tech stocks surged 43.5% during the same period, indicating that this decline was not due to macro risk aversion, but rather Bitcoin-specific supply pressure. The core pressure stems from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, and the DAT complex overall turning from a demand engine to a supply risk. Regarding ETFs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing distribution channels remain competitive. Regarding the derivatives market, against the backdrop of weak spot demand and continuous outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, positive funding rates coupled with rising open interest indicate leveraged longs are rebuilding positions, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines. Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% cumulatively from the all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025; if referencing the 2018 and 2022 cycles (gradually narrowing declines of approximately 70%, approximately 370

Opinion: Strategy Goes One Week Without Buying BTC; Analysts Say It Shows Stronger Balance Sheet Discipline

Odaily Strategy sold nearly $467 million worth of MSTR common stock last week but did not increase its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts believe this indicates that the company is implementing its recently proposed Digital Credit Capital Framework and beginning to prioritize strengthening its balance sheet, rather than solely pursuing short-term BTC accumulation.According to the latest filings, Strategy has increased its U.S. dollar cash reserves to $3 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged at 843,775 BTC. Both Benchmark and TD Cowen believe this move strengthens the company's balance sheet and helps boost market confidence in its preferred equity financing model.TD Cowen reiterated its "Buy" rating and $260 price target for Strategy stock, stating that this operation is an early signal of management executing the new capital allocation framework. The firm noted that Strategy's choice to expand dollar reserves and pause Bitcoin purchases demonstrates a greater emphasis on balance sheet discipline rather than maximizing short-term BTC accumulation.Benchmark also maintained its "Buy" rating with a $570 price target. On Monday, Strategy's stock price traded at approximately $91.50, near its long-term low. Overall, analysts believe that amid pressure on preferred equity financing tools like STRC and market focus on dividend coverage capacity, Strategy's increase in cash reserves may help alleviate investor concerns regarding a forced sale of BTC.

Standard Chartered: Maintains Bitcoin Price Forecast of $100,000 by End of 2026

Odaily Odaily Planet Daily reported that Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated that the market has misinterpreted Michael Saylor's adjustments to Strategy Inc.'s bitcoin strategy, and the recent selling pressure stems from confusion over this strategy rather than a change in bitcoin's long-term outlook. Strategy Inc. is shifting bitcoin from being a reserve accumulation asset to serving as collateral to support its STRC preferred stock. Kendrick maintains the bitcoin price forecast of $100,000 by the end of 2026. As of press time, BTC was trading at $64,322.89, and Strategy's stock MSTR closed at $94.64 on Friday. The outstanding notional value of STRC is approximately $10 billion, which Kendrick believes makes the preferred stock heavily overcollateralized due to its bitcoin backing. (Bitcoin.com News).

Strategy currently has an unrealized loss of $11.341 billion, while Bitmine has an unrealized loss of $9.406 billion

According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ember, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) sold 3,588 BTC ($216 million) at a price of $60,197 last week. They currently hold 843,775 BTC ($52.343 billion) with an average cost of $75,476, resulting in an unrealized loss of $11.341 billion (-17.8%).Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) purchased 42,197 ETH ($69.03 million) at approximately $1,636 last week. They now hold a total of 5,742,237 ETH ($10.037 billion) with an average cost of $3,386, resulting in an unrealized loss of $9.406 billion (-48.4%).

BIT: AI Stock Sell-off Triggers BTC Drop Below $60,000, Market Shows "Orderly Decline" Rather Than Panic

According to the weekly market report released by BIT Official, heavy selling in semiconductor and AI stocks on June 23-24 triggered defensive adjustments by institutional capital. BTC fell below $60K on June 24, hitting a low of ~$59,000 (intraday decline of approximately 5%). Approximately $994 million in liquidations occurred during the same period (of which approximately $780 million were long positions). Approximately $1.2 billion in nominal Put positions at the $60K level forced market makers to short, exacerbating the downward trend. As of the weekend, BTC was quoted at ~$59,992, down 6.9% for the week; ETH was quoted at ~$1,578, down 9.3% for the week. In terms of volatility, DVOL only rose slightly (BTC 44.1→45.7, ETH 57.3→59.5), front-end skew tended to stabilize, and convexity returned to normal. The institutional defensive hedging ratio decreased from 29.6% to 19.7%, shifting towards two-way balance, overall showing characteristics of an "orderly decline" rather than panic selling. In terms of ETFs, for the week ending June 26, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.79 billion, marking the second-highest weekly outflow record in history, and have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks; IBIT net assets decreased to approximately $44.4 billion, with average holders having an unrealized loss of approximately 40%. Strategy purchased only 520 BTC this week (approximately $34.9 million), significantly slowing down compared to the previous two weeks. MSTR stock price has fallen below its BTC book value, and the flywheel effect has been affected

Strategy holds $50.842 billion in BTC, BitMine bought $44.63 million in ETH last week

on-chain analyst Ember CN posted on platform X, stating that MicroStrategy did not make any BTC purchases last week. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) currently holds a total of 847,363 BTC, valued at $50.842 billion, with an average cost price of $75,651, an unrealized loss of $13.262 billion, and an unrealized loss rate of 20.7%. Ethereum treasury company BitMine (BMNR) last week purchased 27,084 ETH at approximately $1,648 each, valued at $44.63 million. It currently holds a total of 5.70004 million ETH, valued at $8.978 billion, with an average cost price of $3,399, an unrealized loss of $10.397 billion, and an unrealized loss rate of 53.6%.

Since Strategy’s first token sale, MSTR has nearly halved; top short-position whales are sitting on $1.32 million in unrealized profits.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, MicroStrategy (MSTR), the Bitcoin treasury proxy stock, continues to face downward pressure. Since the company’s first Bitcoin sale this year—selling 32 BTC in late May to cover preferred stock dividends—MSTR’s share price has fallen 48% cumulatively. Over the past 24 hours alone, it dropped another 13.8%, trading at $84 on Hyperliquid—the lowest level in two years—and leading declines across the HIP-3 market. The company’s unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings have now exceeded $13 billion.

Both Strategy and Bitmine have unrealized losses of approximately $9 billion each.

: According to on-chain analyst EmberCN, Strategy (MSTR) purchased 520 BTC last week at a price of approximately $67,068, valued at $34.87 million. The company currently holds a total of 847,363 BTC, worth approximately $55.01 billion, with an average cost price of $75,651, resulting in an unrealized loss of $9.093 billion.Bitmine (BMNR) purchased 52,203 ETH last week at a price of approximately $1,751, valued at $91.43 million. The company currently holds a total of 5,672,956 ETH, worth approximately $10.007 billion, with an average cost price of $3,407, resulting in an unrealized loss of $9.32 billion.

Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Show Unrealized Loss of $7.979 Billion, Bitmine Ethereum Holdings Show Unrealized Loss of $9.327 Billion

Odaily News According to on-chain analyst Ember monitoring, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) purchased 1,587 BTC ($100 million) last week at approximately $63,024. They now hold a total of 846,842 BTC ($56.09 billion) with an average cost of $75,656, reflecting an unrealized loss of $7.979 billion (-12.4%).Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) purchased 76,881 ETH ($129 million) last week at approximately $1,681. They now hold a total of 5,620,754 ETH ($9.909 billion) with an average cost of $3,422, reflecting an unrealized loss of $9.327 billion (-48.5%). Bitmine is only 400,000 ETH away from its target of holding 5% of the ETH supply, and at the current pace, this goal should be achievable next month.

TD Cowen analyst reaffirms Buy rating on Strategy with $400 price target

: BitcoinTreasuries.NET posted on X that Lance Vitanza, an analyst at $150 billion investment bank TD Cowen, reaffirmed a Buy rating on Strategy (MSTR), a bitcoin treasury company, with a price target of $400.