News linked to both this project and an event.
10x Research released a report stating that the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have continuously shifted over the past decade, indicating that holding altcoins long-term is not the optimal strategy—momentum trading is more critical. A bullish stance can be maintained if an altcoin trades above its 6-month or 12-month moving average; once it falls below, investors should decisively reduce positions. Using a dual-screening framework based on fundamental catalysts and risk management, the firm has currently identified six altcoins exhibiting strong bullish catalysts and meeting risk-management criteria. Historical data shows such a carefully selected portfolio is likely to significantly outperform Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. This is a significant signal, suggesting the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every BTC rebound still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently published fourth part of his "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data is positive.Additionally, CryptoQuant added a dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and capital distribution among various funds. Currently, the 30-day momentum of the ETF stands at just $362.8 million, whereas this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a crucial indicator for observing US spot demand. When the index stays consistently above zero, it indicates that US buying is still supporting the market. If it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its upward trend may lack genuine US demand support.
According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, HYPE has become one of the strongest-performing tokens in the crypto market since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, surging over 100% from its 2026 lows—with particularly pronounced outperformance relative to Bitcoin. The core driver behind this strength lies in Hyperliquid’s ongoing expansion beyond crypto into other asset classes, having successively launched TradFi-linked products such as oil and SpaceX perpetual contracts, thereby attracting substantial capital inflows. Thielen notes that this trend reflects a broader acceleration by crypto exchanges into high-volatility, topical traditional financial derivatives—and signals that the intrinsic value of crypto infrastructure itself is gradually surpassing the crypto narrative. Although HYPE is already a highly crowded long position with strong conviction among market participants, its current momentum remains robust.
although Bitcoin has retraced approximately 2.5% from its local high of $82,800 on May 6, market analysts widely believe its overall uptrend structure remains intact, and it has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" zone. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock points out that Bitcoin has re-entered a price expansion zone, with the Bull Market Support Band turning into support. The 21-week EMA has crossed back above the 20-week SMA, shifting the trend structure back to bullish.Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the $80,000 level, where the "Realized Market Mean" and the short-term holder cost basis form key support, while the realized price near $85,000 represents overhead resistance. Spot buying pressure driven by whales and institutions is strengthening, while the proportion of speculative derivatives activity is declining. Historically, similar structural setups have often corresponded to sustainable uptrends. If this indicator remains persistently positive, it could further propel Bitcoin's upward cycle.On the liquidity front, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows into a critical range, indicating stablecoin capital is flowing back into the market. This signal previously corresponded to阶段性底部反弹 (significant bottom bounces) in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023.Meanwhile, Binance's Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, hitting a 12-month high, demonstrating a notable increase in stablecoin purchasing power. On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume increased by 116% in May to 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses grew 7.1% week-over-week to 707,700; and total fees rose 37% to $279,300, indicating significantly heightened network usage activity. Regarding capital structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned consistently positive, suggesting spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows this indicator has further increased to $62 million compared to a week earlier, reflecting a strengthening of active buying sentiment in the market.In summary, price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin remains in a "strong trend expansion phase," with the bull market momentum not yet exhausted. (Cointelegraph)
According to chart analysis by independent analyst Markus Thielen, Bitcoin has weakened for five consecutive months since hitting an all-time high in October 2025, only posting positive returns in March 2026. April is not yet over, but this month’s gains are poised to become Bitcoin’s strongest single-month performance since April 2025—potentially marking its second consecutive month of gains. Analysts note that two successive monthly recoveries have already signaled some degree of repair, and when combined with the historically bullish seasonal pattern from May through July, Bitcoin may continue to receive some support going forward. However, a single-month rebound remains insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.