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Gate Ventures: Oil Breaks $100 as Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Risk Assets Under Broad Pressure

Odaily News: According to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, last week's escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East combined with U.S. core inflation exceeding expectations significantly heightened global market volatility. Brent crude and WTI crude surged 8.33% and 9.36% respectively, returning above $100 per barrel; U.S. August core CPI rose 0.29% month-over-month, higher than expected, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.97%, with market-implied probability of a September rate hike rising to approximately 86%; spot gold fell 1.82% to $4,349.42 per ounce. U.S. stock indices — the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones — declined 0.80%, 0.66%, and 1.57% respectively; the crypto market weakened in tandem, with BTC and ETH dropping 4.4% and 1.5% respectively. Spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $462.7 million, while ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of $197.1 million. The fear index dropped from 71 to 57, indicating a cooling of market sentiment.On the industry front, India launched a $107 million tokenized corporate bond pilot program, further advancing institutional-grade RWA tokenization; Gemini obtained a Major Payment Institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, further expanding its regulatory footprint in the Asia-Pacific region; and the Philippine central bank plans to suspend new payment system operator registrations for 12 months, tightening oversight of VASP-related payment activities.On the funding side, a total of 9 financing deals were completed last week, with disclosed total funding reaching $158.4 million, down 88% quarter-over-quarter. Overall, energy prices and inflation expectations remain the core variables driving short-term market trends, while interest in tokenized assets and institutional-grade crypto infrastructure development remains undiminished.

Analysis: Bitcoin Miner Behavior Shows Market Bottom Not Yet Confirmed, Selling Pressure Eases but Caution Persists

analysts from CryptoQuant have pointed out that, based on a comprehensive review of multiple miner indicators, Bitcoin miners have not yet exhibited behavioral characteristics that "confirm a market bottom," and are currently in a phase of waiting and cautious adjustment. Meanwhile, the Miner Position Index (MPI) remains in negative territory, indicating that current selling intensity is below historical averages. Miners are not in a panic-selling phase but are engaging in "passive selling" primarily to maintain cash flow, suggesting that the probability of an extreme short-term decline is relatively limited. Additionally, the Puell Multiple remains below 1, further indicating that miner revenues are at historically weak levels, and overall profitability is under pressure. However, the strong accumulation behavior typically seen at cycle bottoms has not yet appeared.The analysis suggests that miners are currently in a "waiting phase," having neither triggered a capitulation-style sell-off nor entered an active accumulation cycle. This resembles a typical transitional state before a market bottom forms. Overall, while selling pressure from miners has eased, on-chain structures still show short-term supply pressure exists. Bitcoin is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation pattern, and market sentiment is likely to remain cautious in the near term.