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Bitcoin Faces $11 Billion Options Expiry, With US Midterm Elections Set to Amplify Market Volatility

Odaily Report: Approximately $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on October 30, accounting for about one-third of Deribit's total open interest in Bitcoin options. Coupled with the approaching US midterm elections on November 3, the market may face greater volatility.Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark on Monday this week and has since hovered around that level, trading at approximately $81,100 in the Singapore market on Thursday. Among the soon-to-expire options, call options outnumber put options, with strike prices concentrated at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 — contracts at these levels are likely to expire worthless in the short term. Meanwhile, approximately 70% of the expiring options' Gamma is concentrated in the $75,000 to $82,000 range. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, noted that if market makers hold short positions, their hedging activities could accelerate Bitcoin's decline below the $75,000 to $78,000 range; if they hold long positions, it could cushion the downside.Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, pointed out that some option sellers may wait until after the US midterm elections on November 3 to establish new positions, resulting in a lack of常规 Gamma supply to buffer price fluctuations. Volatility could increase further around the announcement of election results.Additionally, the battle for congressional control could also affect the Trump administration's ability to advance crypto-friendly policies. A Bloomberg Market Pulse survey shows that if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, the median year-end Bitcoin price forecast is $90,800; if Democrats control both chambers, it is $76,450; and if Congress is split between the two parties, it is $84,100. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, expects that after market volatility hit historic lows over the past year, Bitcoin market volatility in November may rebound significantly. (Bloomberg)

Bank of Korea Warns: Mounting Vulnerabilities in the AI Sector from Heavy Reliance on External Financing and Intensifying Circular Finance as Long-Term Interest Rates Rise

According to Yonhap News Agency, Section Chief Kim Yun-kyung and Investigator Wang Jae-kun of the Bank of Korea’s Investigation Bureau noted in their October 27 report, "Major Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Funding in the AI Industry," that intensifying fundraising competition in the AI sector recently has heightened dependence on external funding and expanded circular finance, fueling growing warnings about financial risks triggered by AI. The report notes that this year, hyperscale data center operators have substantially broadened external financing primarily through long-term corporate bonds, while AI-focused cloud companies have increasingly turned to GPU-backed credit and convertible bonds. AI firms are also actively leveraging off-balance-sheet financing instruments such as special purpose vehicles, joint ventures, and leasing. Meanwhile, the volume of circular transactions between hyperscale firms and AI chipmakers for future sales, facilitated by supply chain investments, continues to grow. The report assesses that while the financial health of major leading enterprises remains solid and the likelihood of AI-related financial risks materializing is currently low, vulnerabilities are steadily building amid rising long-term interest rates. Primary risk factors include delays in AI monetization and the propagation of shocks stemming from circular finance. Particular attention should be directed toward the potential risks posed by AI cloud companies that exhibit inadequate financial buffers and low information transparency. The report emphasizes that as South Korea stands to benefit the most from the AI boom, its deep integration into global supply chains could amplify the transmission intensity of real-economy and financial shocks triggered by AI compared to previous cycles. It is essential to continuously monitor the accumulation of potential vulnerabilities and the likelihood of risks materializing.

South Korean retail investors net bought $3.548 billion of SOXL since October, accounting for nearly 74% of total net US stock purchases during the same period

According to Odaily, data from the Korea Securities Depository shows that from October 1 to 22, South Korean individual investors accumulated approximately $4.8 billion in net purchases of US stocks, of which the triple-leveraged US semiconductor ETF (SOXL) saw net purchases of $3.548 billion (approximately 4.7 trillion Korean won), accounting for 73.9% of total net US stock purchases during the same period.Meanwhile, as the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has fallen 18.83% cumulatively this month, from October 1 to 23, individual investors net purchased a combined 315.4 billion Korean won in single-stock leveraged products related to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, marking the first resumption of monthly net purchases since regulatory tightening at the end of July. (Chosun Ilbo)

Kalshi and Polymarket crypto event contracts hit a record $2.7 billion in weekly trading volume, with 15-minute BTC price predictions emerging as a new hotspot

According to Dune data, nominal trading volume for crypto-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, setting an all-time high. Bitcoin short-term up/down contracts were particularly active, with Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin price prediction contracts seeing single trades exceeding $1 million, and some traders using trading bots to capture opportunities in the final seconds before contract expiration.Cryptocurrency has now become the second-largest trading category on both platforms after sports. Crypto trading platforms including Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini, and Kraken are expanding their businesses by applying for relevant licenses or partnering with prediction markets. Meanwhile, declining spot trading volume on centralized exchanges is also pushing crypto platforms to seek business diversification. However, as multiple U.S. states mount legal challenges against sports-related prediction contracts, the regulatory trajectory could also affect the industry's development. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Treasury Plans to Expand Sensitive Technology Investment Restrictions on China and Other Countries, Further Tightening AI and Biotechnology Regulations

The U.S. Department of the Treasury issued proposed rules to implement the COINS Act, aiming to further expand U.S. outbound investment restrictions in certain sensitive technology sectors targeting "countries of concern." The existing regime primarily targets entities related to China, while the proposed rules seek to further tighten restrictions on AI and semiconductors on that basis, extending the regulatory framework to encompass additional sensitive technologies and jurisdictions. In the AI sector, certain investments that remain permissible post-filing under current rules will be converted to outright prohibitions; regarding semiconductors, high bandwidth memory, photonic chips, and radiation-hardened chips will also be subject to stricter restrictions. Meanwhile, biotechnology has been added as a priority regulatory domain, covering areas such as brain-computer interfaces and automated laboratory software.

Analysis: Bitcoin Dominance Rises to Highest Level Since May as Market Awaits New Catalysts

Odaily reports: Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 60% on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since May of this year and holding near that level, reflecting investors' preference for holding Bitcoin over altcoins. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell below $82,000 on Thursday, giving back gains from the previous day's brief break above $84,000. Small-cap tokens saw more pronounced declines, with the CoinDesk Memecoin Index dropping over 5%, the Computing Select Index falling 3.5%, and the DeFi Select Index down 2.5%.Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said that the crypto market's prior outperformance relative to other assets has shifted to trading more closely in line with equity markets, with investors awaiting new industry catalysts. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian exchange Giottus, noted that Bitcoin ETF inflows have yet to form a sustained trend, and investors should avoid chasing rallies while monitoring ETF fund flows and Federal Reserve policy signals. (CoinDesk)

South Korea Virtual Asset Tax Reignites Ruling-Opposition Rift; Deputy Prime Minister to Decide After "Maximum Careful Consideration"

According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean National Assembly's Committee on Finance and Economic Planning held its comprehensive audit of state affairs for 2026, where the ruling and opposition parties clashed over the virtual asset taxation issue, which has been postponed three times. Originating from the 2020 revision of the Income Tax Act, the policy is scheduled to take effect starting in January 2027 under current regulations. Democratic Party lawmaker Yoon Deok-ho stated that the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom have already implemented virtual asset taxes, noting that approximately 48 countries worldwide are currently taxing them. He argued that repeated delays undermine policy consistency, claiming that postponing or repealing enacted laws "shakes the foundations of the nation." Meanwhile, People Power Party lawmaker Lim Yi-ja pointed out that overseas exchanges have no obligation to submit transaction details to South Korea, compromising tax fairness. She also noted that industry players require at least six to nine months to build necessary infrastructure in accordance with National Tax Service announcements, indicating that current preparations remain insufficient.

Binance Square Kicks Off Second Installment of US Stock Earnings Season, Focusing on AI Investment Returns at Tesla and Meta

on October 22, Binance Square launched the second installment of its US stock earnings season content, focusing on the Q3 earnings reports of Tesla (TSLA) and Meta (META). Both companies will release their results after the US market close on October 21 (ET), with market attention centered on whether AI investments can translate into actual revenue, profit, and cash flow.For Tesla, despite Q3 deliveries reaching 486,532 vehicles, beating analyst consensus, automotive business profitability remains a key focus — particularly automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credit revenue. In addition, energy storage business performance, progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and Optimus robot commercialization, as well as capital expenditures and free cash flow, will also influence market judgments on its growth outlook.For Meta, the market will focus on advertising business growth and AI investment returns. Investors should watch revenue, ad impressions, and average price changes to assess whether AI recommendation systems and advertising tools can improve monetization efficiency. Meanwhile, Meta expects capital expenditures to reach $130 billion to $145 billion in 2026. Whether these expenditures can drive corresponding profit and cash flow growth, along with full-year expenses and forward guidance, are all key points of this earnings report.It is understood that Binance Square will continue to follow both companies' earnings performance through earnings previews, post-earnings analysis, and live streams with analysts in both Chinese and English. Users can follow Binance Square's earnings-related topics and participate in discussions via #EarningsSeason to share their views on earnings performance and market trends.

Arkham will limit free users' access to transaction records and launch an enterprise-grade crypto analysis platform.

On-chain analytics platform Arkham announced the launch of Arkham Enterprise, an enterprise-grade crypto analytics platform designed for professional investigators, compliance teams, and transaction researchers, offering features such as on-chain fund tracking, risk scoring, case management, and transaction analysis. Meanwhile, Arkham has also updated the feature access for its free platform: Tracer 2.0, transaction screening, complete transaction history, creating custom tags and entities, and the counterparty section on the browser page will now be exclusively available to enterprise users. Free users' access to transaction records for individual addresses or entities will be limited to the most recent 100 transactions, but they will still be able to use Visualizer 2.0, the block explorer, prediction markets, and Arkham tags.

Hong Kong "BBB Group" agarwood investment suspected as scam, sells off-the-counter stocks and digital assets, police arrest four

According to Hong Kong media outlet HK01, Hong Kong-based "BBB Group (Chinese name: Hao Hao Hao Group)" claims to have invested in Malaysia's agarwood industry and sells OTC stocks and digital assets in what appears to be a scam. The company stated it will convert its OTC stocks into "digital asset" cryptocurrencies by February 2027 or earlier. The Hong Kong police have received reports from 21 individuals concerning the investment project, involving funds of 14 million yuan. The Commercial Crime Bureau is investigating on suspicion of "conspiracy to defraud," and has launched an arrest operation, with four people arrested so far. Meanwhile, according to the official website of Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission, the "Malaysian Agarwood Plantation Investment / Agarwood Tree Plan / Agarwood Potted Trees / APT4.0" has been listed as a suspicious investment product.

Nscale Exposes Multiple Risks Ahead of IPO: Data Centers Barely Operational, Actual Compute Capacity Less Than 1% of Target

Odaily News: AI data center developer Nscale plans to raise up to $3 billion through an IPO as early as this month, but has been revealed to be facing challenges including construction delays, equipment failures, regulatory issues, and employee complaints. Its flagship project—originally planned to build a 30-megawatt data center—is approximately 6 months behind schedule overall, and to accelerate construction, the company arranged for hundreds of construction workers to stay in a floating hotel. Additionally, the project has experienced liquid cooling system leaks and transformer fires. Local safety inspections also identified 10 violations, including ungrounded exposed components in high-voltage systems.Nscale was spun off from crypto mining company Arkon Energy in 2024. It has secured over $103 billion in contracts but has almost no data centers in operation. As of August, its actually built target compute capacity was less than 1% of its overall plan, relying heavily on leased capacity from other data center operators to fulfill contracts. The company's IPO filings show that Microsoft and Anthropic account for approximately 85% of its contract scale; Anthropic has committed to spending approximately $44.6 billion on dedicated AI chip infrastructure for the Monarch campus in West Virginia, but Nscale has yet to secure the financing and long-term chip supply agreements needed to fulfill that contract.Meanwhile, Nscale is seeking an IPO valuation of up to $35 billion. CEO Josh Payne previously summarized its model as "owning land, power, data centers, chips, and software," but multiple projects have yet to achieve this vertically integrated model, with power supply, grid connection, construction progress, and customer delivery all constituting potential bottlenecks. (Bloomberg)

Russia will ban direct P2P crypto trading for individuals starting July 2027.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bank of Russia has issued new guidelines confirming that direct peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrency transactions between individuals will be banned starting July 1, 2027, at which point all such transactions must be conducted through authorized intermediaries. Additionally, individuals are prohibited from transferring crypto assets from digital accounts to self-custody wallets. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia has approved the country's largest bank, Sberbank, to provide cryptocurrency exchange services, and will bring exchange operators and custodial institutions under central bank regulatory oversight starting September 1 this year. Russia currently continues to prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies for payments for goods and services.

Bank of America: Only Shifts to Bonds When U.S. Treasury Yields Hit 6%; Crowded Trade Risks Mount in 3.9% Cash Allocations

According to Trendfollowing Research, a Bank of America research report dated October 13, 2026 states that the October global fund manager survey shows cash levels at 3.9%, with 37% of investors indicating they would shift from equities to bonds once the 10-year US Treasury yield reaches 6.0%. The most crowded trades are long global semiconductors (45%) and short US Treasuries (27%). Meanwhile, 39% of respondents identify AI hyperscaler capital expenditures as the most likely source of credit events, and 76% expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady on October 28. Bank of America concludes that while the market is bullish, positioning is crowded, with bond yields and AI capital expenditures posing the greatest risks. For allocation strategy, they recommend contrarian trades: going long on bonds, REITs, and the consumer sector, while shorting equities, technology, banking, and emerging markets.

Payy has opened a 30-day claims window for the cross-chain bridge attack, and will completely shut down after the window expires.

According to official announcements, Payy has initiated a claims process for affected users following the cross-chain bridge contract hack on September 24, with a 30-day window for claim submissions. Eligible claims will be compensated in USDC on the Ethereum network. Meanwhile, Payy Wallet is currently suspended and will be completely shut down after the claims period concludes.

Ledger attacker moved nearly 3,000 ETH via Tornado Cash and Zcash, related wallets still hold approximately $38.6 million in ETH and $16.9 million in BTC

Odaily News: According to Bitcoin News monitoring, the attacker behind the Ledger supply chain theft has moved nearly 3,000 ETH through Tornado Cash in three separate transactions, and transferred the funds into the Zcash privacy pool before converting them to USDC. Investigator @YFarmX stated that despite the use of privacy tools, they have traced 108 transactions completed through Zcash by exact value matching. An estimated $2.85 million in stolen USDC is still held in 3 wallets, and Circle may be able to freeze the related funds. Meanwhile, Tether is reported to have frozen $10 million in stolen USDT; wallets associated with the attacker still hold approximately $38.6 million in ETH and $16.9 million in BTC.

Celsius Former CEO Reaches Settlement with New York Attorney General, Faces Up to $35 Million in Damages and Permanent Industry Ban

New York Attorney General Letitia James announced on Friday a settlement regarding Celsius former CEO Alex Mashinsky's alleged fraud against investors, securing up to $35 million in contingent damages and requiring his permanent exclusion from the securities, commodities, and cryptocurrency industries.Previously, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had also imposed industry bans on Mashinsky. Mashinsky is currently serving a 12-year prison sentence. Meanwhile, Celsius creditors have received over $3.4 billion in compensation through the company's bankruptcy proceedings.

Gate Europe Recognized as a Preferred Platform for Low-Cost Spot Trading and EUR On-Ramp in Europe, with Dual MiCA and PI License Compliance

Odaily News — According to a recently published guide to European crypto trading platforms, Gate Europe has been named one of the European platforms suited for low-cost spot trading and EUR fiat on-ramp. The platform has obtained MiCA authorization from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), offers a standard spot trading fee of 0.1%, and supports EUR funding via SEPA bank transfers. In terms of user coverage, Gate Europe can accommodate the trading needs of users ranging from beginners to advanced traders, with strong suitability for spot trading users; in response to European users' asset migration needs, the platform also supports migration from USDT to USDC. BeInCrypto previously included Gate Europe in its guide to MiCA-licensed platforms, and continues to follow its regulatory progress and service capabilities in the European market.Currently, Gate Europe has taken the lead in obtaining the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) license and a Payment Institution (PI) license, continuously strengthening its compliance foundation in the European market. Meanwhile, Gate Connect, Gate Card, and related support systems have completed PCI DSS v4.0.1 Level 1 compliance assessment. Against the backdrop of the full implementation of the MiCA regulatory framework and European users' growing attention to legal entities, scope of authorization, and fiat channels, Gate Europe is leveraging its compliance credentials to provide European users with a more comprehensive digital asset trading and fund services experience. (BeInCrypto)

Trump Holds Closed-Door Talks on Middle East Situation and Threatens South Korea Over LNG Investment Expansion

The Trump administration convened a rare closed-door meeting to discuss follow-up measures regarding the Middle East conflict and denied plans to impose a diesel export ban. Meanwhile, it pressured South Korea over the roughly $200 billion Alaska LNG project, while US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations also involved tens of billions of dollars in oil trades.

UBS: The pace of Fed rate hikes may be lower than market expectations, and it expects to maintain interest rates unchanged following a December hike.

UBS stated that despite recent strong US economic data and rising inflation pressures, which have heightened market expectations for further Federal Reserve policy tightening, the bank believes the actual extent of rate hikes may be lower than current market pricing. UBS expects the Federal Reserve to implement one rate hike in December this year before holding steady thereafter, and anticipates inflation to steadily decline over the next six months. Meanwhile, higher bond yields are generating new fixed-income investment opportunities. UBS maintains its bullish outlook on fixed-income assets, believing that US economic resilience and AI investment will continue to support corporate earnings.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh drives policy framework adjustments, placing greater emphasis on financial conditions and downplaying forward guidance.

According to CNBC, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, 127 days into his tenure, is gradually driving adjustments to the monetary policy framework, including weakening traditional forward guidance and incorporating broader "financial conditions"—such as asset prices, U.S. Treasury trading, dollar exchange rates, credit conditions, and commodity prices—into policy decision-making. Against the backdrop of inflation remaining above target, Warsh’s policy framework leaves room for further rate hikes; the Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, marking the first increase since 2023. cnbc.com Meanwhile, the reform to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which he has long advocated, is progressing slowly, with the central bank's balance sheet currently totaling approximately $6.7 trillion.