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CryptoQuant Founder: The Biggest Risk for Bitcoin is Not a Crash, but Long-Term Stagnation

Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the biggest risk for Bitcoin is not a crash, but long-term stagnation. Saylor's STRC structure becomes truly dangerous, not when Bitcoin simply crashes, but when Bitcoin undergoes years of sideways consolidation and a prolonged bear market.If the market still believes in the next rally, sharp pullbacks can be endured. However, long-term stagnation weakens the narrative, reduces demand, compresses the MSTR premium, and makes it difficult for Saylor's financing machine to sustain itself. Ki Young Ju indicated that Saylor's real challenge is not just buying more Bitcoin, but providing the market with new reasons for conviction. Ki Young Ju pointed out that, contrary to the "digital gold" narrative, Bitcoin's performance often resembles that of tech stocks.

Analysis: Model Predicts BTC Could Reach $255,000 This Year; Long-Term Valuation Range Upgraded to $308,000

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has declined approximately 40% from its all-time high in October 2025, yet long-term valuation models indicate substantial upside potential remains. Based on the “Bitcoin Decay Channel” measurement of long-term trends, Bitcoin’s conservative year-end price range has been revised upward to $90,000–$255,000, with the high-end scenario reaching as high as $255,000. This model fits a logarithmic decay trend to historical cycle highs and lows, showing that BTC prices at the peaks of the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles all approached the upper channel boundary, while bear market bottoms fell near the lower boundary. Analyst Sminston stated that Bitcoin remains within a historic, long-term upward channel and noted that the price range for 2027 could further expand to $128,000–$308,000.