News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Wintermute's weekly market report, Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, breaking below $82,500 and retesting $80,000 before closing at approximately $80,500. ETH dropped 3.40%, closing at around $2,330. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $636 million on Thursday, the largest single-day outflow since June, coinciding with a 2.6% drop in the Nasdaq on the same day. On the macro front, following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, Brent crude surged 5.66% to $116.72, with oil prices displacing AI financing as the primary market concern. Wintermute noted that as of October 18, markets price in roughly an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this Wednesday, alongside expectations for a December rate hike. The Fed's forward guidance regarding December represents the key risk. Technically, BTC must reclaim the $82,000–$82,500 zone. Should the $80,000 level fail, the next support sits at $76,000, with a breakdown likely pushing prices to just over $70,000. The firm stated it is temporarily not taking a bearish view but will remain cautious until the FOMC meeting concludes and BTC reclaims $82,500. Key upcoming events include the October 28 FOMC meeting, October 29 reports for Q3 GDP and September PCE data, and the October 30 monthly options expiration.
Ali noted that Bitcoin has experienced significant drawdowns during each of the past four U.S. midterm election cycles, with declines reaching 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, respectively. Additionally, aside from 2010, the fourth quarters of the remaining three midterm election years all recorded negative returns.
Odaily reports: Trader Killa posted that Bitcoin's next major cycle inflection point is expected to arrive within a few days. Based on his observation of price movements over the past 600-plus days, the previous 11 inflection points all saw price action contrary to the mainstream market narrative. Bearish sentiment is still accumulating in the market, and if this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could rally against the trend by at least 5%. Killa also noted that a significant move may not necessarily occur immediately after the inflection point arrives, and he will focus on price performance at that time.
DWF Labs stated that the market has not yet fully priced in the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) integration with the crypto industry. As agent trading and payments gradually gain traction, AI can help retail investors process more information, make faster decisions, and build their own capital management infrastructure, though related capital has not yet flowed into the crypto space at scale.
Odaily reports: Trader Killa says that for Bitcoin (BTC) to replicate its 2023 price action, it needs to form a higher low (HL) above $75,500 and ideally hold the low near $80,000.After Bitcoin recently reclaimed its short-term structure around the $82,000 zone, it pulled back to test and broke through again, with short-term price action showing strong characteristics of "bull traps and bear traps." When BTC previously fell from $84,100 to $81,000, the structure appeared weak, but a large number of shorts entering at the lows fueled the subsequent rebound.Killa noted that during the drop from $84,100 to $81,000, long liquidations totaled approximately $300 million, while during the earlier decline from $86,800 to $80,600, long liquidations exceeded $2 billion, indicating that the market's leverage structure is improving and the proportion of longs has declined compared to before. The market now needs to form a higher low and initiate the next leg up; otherwise, this correction could break below $80,000.
Odaily News: CoinShares noted in its latest biweekly market report that U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $679 million last week, including a single-day net outflow of $485 million on Wednesday, the largest single-day outflow since June; ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $542 million last week, with cumulative outflows of nearly $700 million over nine consecutive trading days. BTC briefly approached $87,000 on October 5, then fell back to around $80,300, before rebounding to around $83,500.The report shows that BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq index has rebounded to about 40%, its long-term average level, while its correlation with inflation-linked bonds continues to strengthen. CoinShares believes that U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be an important variable: if core CPI rises 0.3% month-over-month, it could reinforce market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, putting BTC at risk of testing $80,000 again. (CoinShares)
According to a report from Binance Research, since August 31, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 47 basis points to 5.22%, with 43 basis points driven by an increase in real yields (currently at 2.87%, peaking at 2.95% on October 5, the highest since 2008), while inflation expectations contributed only 4 basis points. Since the rate hike on September 16, leading market sectors have been highly concentrated: in equities, the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, led by semiconductors up 10.6%, while small-cap and bank stocks declined, and the equal-weight index remained flat; in crypto markets, Bitcoin gained 9.3%, Ethereum rose 2.7%, with Layer 2 (+32%), RWA (+29%), and AI tokens (+29%) leading the way, while Meme coins and payment tokens only advanced 5%. In terms of fund flows, net inflows into stocks on the Binance platform reached $169 million, with semiconductor-related inflows nearly quadrupling to $73 million, and Intel attracting $32 million in a single week despite a 12% drop in its stock price. Key focus areas ahead include the September CPI data (expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%) and the banking earnings season, which will serve as a key test of the current market landscape.
Odaily report: Crypto analyst Darkfost posted on X with a chart, stating that compared to the end of August, the Bitcoin market trend has shown a clear shift, which can be observed from changes in the Capital Cost Basis. This metric calculates a weighted realized price based on transaction volume (USD), giving higher weight to BTC purchased at higher prices, thereby more accurately reflecting the actual cost of market capital.Data shows that at the end of August, BTC was still struggling near this key level, but Bitcoin has now closed above the capital cost basis of approximately $80,400 for several consecutive weeks. This means that most of the capital invested in the market is now in slight profit. As investor positions gradually turn profitable, market stability is strengthening by the day, which is a positive signal for the current BTC consolidation phase.
well-known trader Bonk Guy posted that MARSCOIN's current price action is "very clean," and predicted it may see a significant rally in Q4, adding that its fundamentals are also improving. According to the analyst, as BNB and BNB Chain gain greater influence in this cycle, MARSCOIN's "Musk + CZ" narrative has further strengthened. He noted that in the previous cycle, SHIB and DOGE market caps once surpassed $40 billion and $80 billion, respectively, while MARSCOIN this time will combine elements such as Musk, Binance founder CZ, and space rocket company SPCX. Binance has already provided support to the related ecosystem through SPCX rewards and a portion of its own trading fees, and the market may be underestimating MARSCOIN's potential performance over the next few months.
Analyst Darkfost states that the cost basis for Bitcoin's short-term holders (STH) has confirmed crossing above that of active long-term holders (LTH), sending a bull market confirmation signal historically observed for the fifth time. Active long-term holders refer to coin supplies transferred at least once over the past seven years, a definition designed to exclude long-dormant balances. Currently, over 3.5 million bitcoins held for more than ten years remain dormant, with this supply segment growing by an average of approximately 8,000 to 30,000 coins per month. Darkfost believes current market momentum is shifting positively, partially driven by capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although the possibility of this signal failing remains.
Fetch.ai officially announced that it was hacked, with attackers breaching the system via stolen signing keys and transferring funds to withdrawal wallets. An on-chain attack analysis report tracing the complete path from the key leak to the attacker's withdrawal has been published on the ASI:One platform. Currently, Fetch.ai has collaborated with SingularityNET to disable the affected wallets and related contracts. The investigation is ongoing, and updates will be provided continuously.
According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $77,100 on September 15, closing at $75,702 with a daily decline of 3.2%, marking its third consecutive closing lower after breaking through the recent range bottom. On that day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $450.4 million, with Fidelity FBTC seeing an outflow of $214.8 million and BlackRock IBIT recording an outflow of $161.7 million, accounting for 84% of total outflows. This marks the 14th-largest single-day net outflow in 2026. The downturn was driven by multiple factors: the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance, the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 5% (for the first time since 2023), accelerated selling by short-term holders (exchange inflows surged sharply from 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC, of which 23,200 BTC were acquired at a loss), and foreign demand dropping to a historic low during the 20-year US Treasury auction. From a technical standpoint, BTC has fallen below the market average value of $76,500 and Strategy's average holding price of $75,412, leaving the average holder currently underwater. If the downtrend continues, key support levels below are $73,500 (cost basis for 3-6 month holders) and $71,300 (realized price for short-term holders). A rebound requires reclaiming $77,100 backed by significant spot trading volume.
Odaily News – In the latest weekly report, Garrett Jin, agent for the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that despite oil prices rising to around $95 this week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 4.8%, and market expectations for a September Fed rate hike climbing to approximately 70%, Bitcoin has held its key support at $76,600 and has since recovered to above $77,000.Garrett noted that the $75,000 to $80,000 range has formed a substantial new cost basis, providing firmer support for the market. If Bitcoin closes above $82,500 on the daily chart and subsequently holds around $80,000 during a pullback, it would signal that the market is absorbing selling pressure and gearing up for further strength. Conversely, if the daily close falls below $76,600—accompanied by weakness in at least two of the following metrics: ETF flows, Coinbase premium, and 7-day net realized profit/loss—it would constitute a clearer downside warning.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion in August, but September opened with two-way flows, recording net outflows of around $237 million on Tuesday. Garrett believes that Bitcoin holding key support amid heightened macro rate pressures suggests recent spot demand is not entirely driven by short-squeeze dynamics. He maintains a constructive outlook for Bitcoin's performance toward year-end, though he notes that future trajectory will depend on whether U.S. Treasury yields can halt their sustained upward trend.
According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo (@willywoo), approximately 5% of the global population currently holds BTC, surpassing the 4.5% who hold gold and the 4% who hold the S&P 500. Woo noted that if BTC adoption remains at 5%, it is merely a conventional financial asset; however, if it rises to 50%, it could enable a separation between currency and the state.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has rebounded approximately 26% from its mid-August low, driven primarily by record short liquidations. August 19 marked the largest single-day short liquidation day monitored since 2019, with shorts accounting for 85% of total liquidations within the squeeze window. Over the same period, coin-denominated BTC futures open interest fell by 11%, while perpetual contract funding rates remained largely neutral, indicating that the rally was not accompanied by significant new leveraged long positioning. On the capital flow front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $2.23 billion during this window, with no single-day net outflows, marking the strongest consecutive seven-day inflow streak of the year. The 30-day accumulation trend scores for wallets across all size categories remained above 0.5, reflecting broad-based buying coverage throughout the market. However, Glassnode notes that the $81,000–$86,000 zone concentrates the cost basis of long-term holders, sell orders, options market maker negative gamma positioning, and potential short liquidation bands, forming the primary resistance to the current rebound. The report suggests that if BTC holds above $83,300 alongside sustained ETF inflows, it may signal that this supply zone is being absorbed. Downside focus should then shift to the $70,000 short-term holder cost basis, followed by the $62,000–$65,000 support range.
According to Cointelegraph, analysts pointed out that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the early stages of a new bull market, but $83,000 remains a key resistance level for confirming the uptrend.
Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently attempting to reclaim the "Active Supply Cost Basis" level.Darkfost noted that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once within the past 7 years. By excluding long-dormant Bitcoin, a more accurate average cost basis that aligns with the current market structure can be obtained, with its Realized Price standing at approximately $70,400.He stated that the last time Bitcoin successfully reclaimed this level was in early April, before the market fell back below this zone again in early June, with sellers reasserting dominance.Darkfost said that if BTC can sustain its position above the active supply cost basis this time, it could signal the market is forming a longer-term uptrend, rather than the brief breakout that lasted only about two months previously.This metric is commonly used by the market to observe changes in long-term holder costs and Bitcoin market cycle status. Whether BTC can firmly hold near the $70,400 level will become a key indicator for future bullish and bearish forces.
Odaily News, Garrett Jin, proxy for the "BTC OG Insider Whale," analyzed that Bitcoin's latest breakout above $70,000 was driven by multiple bullish factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buybacks, the SEC's proposed crypto asset regulatory framework, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense overhead supply zone ranging from the mid-$60,000s to the low $80,000s, with the first resistance layer already showing signs of weakening.Garrett Jin pointed out that the significant accumulation of new cost basis in the mid-$60,000 area over the past two months has provided underlying support for this breakout. While the short-squeeze triggered by short liquidations could temporarily push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the near term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a critical resistance zone to watch, and the short-squeeze momentum is unlikely to persist. If the market can effectively absorb supply below $80,000 before a breakout, it would be more conducive to a healthier subsequent trend.On the same day, SK Hynix announced South Korea's largest-ever stock buyback and cancellation plan, committing to return at least 50% of its projected free cash flow through 2027 to shareholders. Its shares surged over 10% at one point, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker on South Korea's KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move could alleviate market concerns over declining risk appetite for Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot alter the cyclical trajectory of the memory chip industry itself.
Odaily News - Bitcoin extended its gains on Wednesday and climbed above $72,000 on Thursday, reaching its highest level since June 1.Market analysis suggests that the recent rally is primarily driven by easing pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. The White House's earlier signals of support for Treasury market stability alleviated investor concerns over bond market volatility. However, the longer-term trajectory still depends on changes in Federal Reserve liquidity policy.Analyst Pedro Fontes noted that if the world's largest debt market requires policy support to maintain stable operation, it would further strengthen demand for assets that are scarce, predictable, and not reliant on government debt expansion—characteristics that Bitcoin aligns with. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.88% to 98.77 yesterday, hitting a fresh low since May.Strive Founder and CEO Matt Cole stated that the dollar index has been in a long-term "structural downtrend," and a weaker dollar could create a more favorable investment environment for assets like Bitcoin. Markets will continue to monitor the White House's further remarks on the bond market, shifts in geopolitical conditions, and U.S. initial jobless claims data today, as these factors could influence Treasury yields and market liquidity expectations. (CoinDesk)