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According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and a cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin’s current recovery is fragile. Geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict will dominate market trends in Q2 2026, with rate cuts not expected until Q3 or Q4 at the earliest. He noted that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must simultaneously be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80 per barrel, and weakening economic data. BTC is currently trading at approximately $71,276, facing resistance near $74,000 and still trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. Earlier, on April 6, BTC briefly rose above $73,000 but subsequently declined following the collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations and former U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. There remains disagreement within the Federal Reserve’s FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026; CME FedWatch data shows over a 98% probability that rates will be held steady at both the April 29 and June 17 meetings.
According to options analyst [email protected] (@BTC__options), on April 10, a total of 27,000 BTC options expired, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.71, a max pain level at $69,000, and a notional value of $1.94 billion; meanwhile, 151,000 ETH options expired, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.77, a max pain level at $2,050, and a notional value of $330 million. Market-wise, spurred by news of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire this week, BTC surged past $72,000—breaking out of its recent consolidation range. BTC options’ market share has consistently exceeded 80%, with open interest concentrated in late April and late June expiries; trading activity is dominated by the current-month (late-April) expiry. In terms of volatility, BTC’s implied volatility (IV) across major tenors dropped sharply to around 40%, while ETH’s IV across major tenors also declined to approximately 60%. Skew continues rising, albeit modestly. Analysts note that BTC’s performance this year has been weak both in price and market热度 (heat). Although this week’s sustained rebound is rare, indicators such as fund flows suggest the crypto market remains driven by broader markets, with most of its own metrics pointing to bearish characteristics.