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Analysis: Bitcoin Holds at $77,000 Range, Powell's "Final FOMC" Adds Market Uncertainty

Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $89.65 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), on April 28, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $89.65 million. BlackRock’s IBIT led with an outflow of $112.22 million, followed by Bitwise’s BITB with an outflow of $13.65 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC with an outflow of $4.98 million. Ark’s ARKB recorded a net inflow of $41.20 million, while all other products remained flat.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw total net outflows of $89.6754 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $112 million in net outflows

According to SoSoValue data, as of yesterday (Eastern Time, April 28), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net outflows of $89.6754 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow was the ARKB ETF from Ark Invest and 21Shares, with a net inflow of $41.2021 million. Currently, the historical total net inflow for ARKB stands at $1.608 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net outflow was BlackRock's IBIT ETF, with a net outflow of $112 million. As of now, IBIT's historical total net inflow is $78.118 million.As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $100.390 billion, with the ETF net asset ratio (market cap relative to Bitcoin's total market cap) at 6.56%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $58.211 billion.

BlackRock transferred 6,040 ETH and approximately 362 BTC to Coinbase Prime.

According to Arkham’s monitoring data, approximately one hour ago, BlackRock transferred 6,040 ETH—valued at $13.79 million—to Coinbase Prime via its Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), ETHA. Additionally, BlackRock transferred a total of 362.682 BTC—valued at $27.73 million—to Coinbase Prime via its Bitcoin ETF, IBIT.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Net Inflows for 9 Consecutive Days, Total Inflows Reaching Approximately $2.1 Billion

according to data monitoring from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day on April 24, with a single-day inflow of $14.45 million. The total cumulative inflows during this continuous period amounted to approximately $2.1 billion, marking the longest net inflow streak since September 2025. Last week, ETFs saw total inflows of $823.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT recording weekly inflows of $983 million, hitting a new high in nearly six months.CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin market is driven by futures, with open interest continuing to rise. However, aside from ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases, on-chain apparent demand remains negative. The chief analyst at CEX.IO pointed out that the recent price increase has been notably driven by short squeezes. Since April 13, the total amount of short liquidations has reached approximately $2.8 billion, far exceeding the $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Part of the ETF demand may stem from basis trading strategies, specifically buying IBIT while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. This strategy is market-neutral and not purely bullish. Currently, the options market's 25-delta skew is in negative territory, indicating that investors are paying a premium to seek downside protection.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $14.47 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs stood at $14.47 million, a sharp decline from the $231.6 million recorded on April 23. By product: BlackRock’s IBIT saw inflows of $22.9 million, and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT recorded $11.13 million—top performers on the day; Fidelity’s FBTC experienced outflows of $1.69 million, Bitwise’s BITB saw $8.85 million in outflows, and ARK’s ARKB recorded $9.02 million in outflows; Invesco, Franklin, Valkyrie, VanEck, WisdomTree, and Grayscale’s respective products all reported zero net flows for the day.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $223 million.

According to Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $223 million: BlackRock’s IBIT led with $167 million, Ark’s ARKB followed with $71.22 million, and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT saw $9.36 million in inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC experienced an outflow of $16.93 million, Bitwise’s BITB an outflow of $7.6 million, and VanEck’s HODL an outflow of $5.5 million; all other products remained flat.

Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive Across the Board, IBIT Ranks in Top 1% of ETF Flows

: Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, posted on X that Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive across the board, stating “all rolling periods we track are now positive,” a first in several months. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT has seen cumulative inflows of approximately $3 billion, placing it in the top 1% of all ETF flow performance.However, Eric Balchunas noted that returning to the all-time high cumulative net flows of $62.8 billion would still require tens of billions of dollars in additional inflows. Nonetheless, this at least indicates a clear rebound in sentiment towards Bitcoin ETFs and a recovery in market demand.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $331.9 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $331.9 million. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net inflow of $246.9 million—accounting for approximately 74% of the day’s total inflow; Fidelity’s FBTC saw a net inflow of $56.69 million; Bitwise’s BITB, $15.43 million; Ark’s ARKB, $11.91 million; Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, $11.31 million; and WisdomTree’s BTCW, $6.26 million. Grayscale’s GBTC experienced a net outflow of $16.56 million on the same day, while all other funds reported zero net inflows.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $238.37 million.

According to Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $238.37 million, with BlackRock’s $IBIT alone accounting for $256.05 million. Grayscale’s $GBTC saw an outflow of $24.94 million, and Fidelity’s $FBTC experienced an outflow of $6.65 million; most other ETFs registered zero net inflow for the day.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Saw Net Inflows of $996 Million Last Week, Marking Three Consecutive Weeks of Net Inflows

According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $996 million during last week's trading sessions (April 13 to April 17, Eastern Time).The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflows last week was BlackRock's IBIT, with weekly net inflows of $906 million. IBIT's cumulative historical net inflows now stand at $64.63 billion. Following that was the Ark & 21Shares ETF ARKB, with weekly net inflows of $98.5036 million. ARKB's cumulative historical net inflows have reached $1.55 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflows last week was Fidelity's FBTC, with weekly net outflows of $104 million. FBTC's cumulative historical net inflows currently amount to $11.01 billion.As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $101.45 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (the proportion of ETF market value relative to Bitcoin's total market cap) has reached 6.55%, with cumulative historical net inflows totaling $57.74 billion.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $664 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $664 million—the highest single-day inflow in the past three months. BlackRock’s $IBIT led with $284 million, followed by Fidelity’s $FBTC at $163 million, Ark’s $ARKB at $118 million, Grayscale’s mini ETF $BTC at $29.12 million, Bitwise’s $BITB at $38.22 million, Morgan Stanley’s $MSBT at $16.63 million, VanEck’s $HODL at $6.56 million, Invesco’s $BTCO at $3.86 million, and Grayscale’s $GBTC at $4.22 million; all other products recorded zero net inflows for the day.

Bloomberg Analyst: IBIT Has Been Rising Almost Continuously for Nearly Three Weeks, Accumulating Approximately 19% Gains Since the US-Iran Conflict

Odaily News Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform, stating that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT has been rising almost daily over the past three weeks, with another gain of about 3.5% today. Since the market sell-off triggered by the US-Iran conflict, it has accumulated gains of approximately 19%. As market concerns over geopolitical shocks have eased (previously seen as a "morning sell-off trigger"), fund sentiment has significantly recovered, driving continued strength in Bitcoin-related ETFs.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $291 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $291 million. By product: Fidelity’s FBTC saw the largest outflow, with a net outflow of $229 million; Ark’s ARKB recorded a net outflow of $62.89 million; Grayscale’s GBTC saw a net outflow of $38.25 million; Grayscale’s Mini BTC had a net outflow of $11.03 million; and VanEck’s HODL posted a net outflow of $2.58 million. Products posting net inflows逆势 included BlackRock’s IBIT (+$34.7 million), Bitwise’s BITB (+$11.88 million), and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT (+$6.28 million); all other products registered zero net flow for the day.

QCP: Crypto Market Remains Resilient Amid Geopolitical Pressures, Institutional Capital Continues to Flow In

According to QCP Group, U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend, sending oil prices back above $100 per barrel and triggering a broad market shift toward risk aversion. BTC encountered resistance at $74,000, while ETH pulled back from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports; Iran countered with threats targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further widening risk exposure. China, as a major importer of Iranian crude oil, sits at the center of this crisis. Should the blockade be implemented, U.S.-China confrontation risks would rise significantly—a scenario not yet fully priced into markets. Nevertheless, the crypto market has demonstrated notable resilience: implied volatility and risk-reversal indicators have both retreated to pre-conflict levels, signaling waning panic. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded net inflows of $612.1 million over the past week, reflecting continued institutional buying momentum. Market focus has now shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details: Trump announced the blockade will commence at 10 a.m. ET—yet repeated delays have rendered policy credibility itself a tradable variable.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $305 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $305 million yesterday, marking a significant rebound from the previous day’s net outflows of $124 million on April 8. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $269 million in net inflows—over 80% of the day’s total; Morgan Stanley’s MSBT saw $14.9 million in net inflows; Bitwise’s BITB recorded $11.73 million; Ark Invest’s ARKB brought in $4.78 million; Franklin Templeton’s EZBC added $2.08 million; and VanEck’s HODL contributed $2.04 million. Fidelity’s FBTC, Invesco’s BTCO, and other products registered zero net inflows that day.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $124 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $124 million. The breakdown by issuer is as follows: BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net inflow of $40.67 million; Fidelity’s FBTC saw a net outflow of $79.12 million; Ark’s ARKB experienced a net outflow of $74.7 million; Grayscale’s GBTC had a net outflow of $11.1 million; Bitwise’s BITB, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin’s EZBC, Valkyrie’s BRRR, VanEck’s HODL, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Grayscale’s mini BTC all registered zero net flow for the day.